Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. While it’s not a total washout, things are looking rather damp for much of our region over the next few days. This comes from a slow-moving system spinning through here into the first half of the new week.
Todays’ showers and storms will be coming from the south but won’t be all day. Some locally heavy downpours will be possible from time to time, especially in the east.
Here are your radars to follow along…
Temps ahead of any rain will be in the low and middle 70s before falling into the 60s once the drops start. For areas starting the day with rain and keeping clouds going, highs may not get much above 70.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday into Sunday night before winding down from west to east on Monday…
This is response to a big upper low spinning across the Ohio Valley into early next week…
Temps are VERY nice for the first half of next week with low humidity and dry skies. Some low temps may slide into the upper 40s.
Temps climb by the end of next week with 80-85 degree highs a good bet into the following weekend.
As we look farther down the fall road and into winter, we find the current CFS model showing a near normal look around here for October…
It keeps that going into November as cold air starts to show up even more across the northwest into the upper midwest…
The same model run has that spilling eastward into December…
The control run of the CFS leads the country into a frigid winter ahead. Check out the colder than normal for December through February…
That matches up well with the 2010 analog I first threw out weeks ago.
Much more fall and winter talk is on the way in the coming days.
Have a great Saturday and take care.
I couldn’t remember what type of Fall and Winter we had here in Central Kentucky in 2010-11 so I looked it up. It read like a typical Fall and Winter with La Nina dominating. A colder and Snowier Northwest to Northeast and a warmer, drier Fall and Winter from the Southwest to along the Gulf coast States, which would put Kentucky somewhere in the middle. Here’s the link :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2%80%9311_North_American_winter
Schroeder, regarding the 2010 analog year, I was curious to see what the sea surface temperature anomaly values were during that period. I pulled up charts for early and late December 2010, mid-January 2011 and mid-February 2011. I also included a link to the most recent SSTA chart. Some of the similarities and differences are subtle, some are surprising.
12/2/2010
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.12.2.2010.gif
12/27/2010
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.12.27.2010.gif
1/17/2011
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anomnight.1.17.2011.gif
2/17/2011
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anomnight.2.17.2011.gif
Current SSTA
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
I responded to Schroeder’s post around 10:30 am, and it said “awaiting moderation”. I just checked and it’s still awaiting moderation.
Here’s the post (again…):
Schroeder, regarding the 2010 analog year, I was curious to see what the sea surface temperature anomaly values were during that period. I pulled up charts for early and late December 2010, mid-January 2011 and mid-February 2011. I also included a link to the most recent SSTA chart. Some of the similarities and differences are subtle, some are surprising.
12/2/2010
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.12.2.2010.gif
12/27/2010
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.12.27.2010.gif
1/17/2011
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anomnight.1.17.2011.gif
2/17/2011
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anomnight.2.17.2011.gif
Current SSTA
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/