Good Sunday to one and all. We have a fall storm system rolling through the Ohio Valley today and it’s bringing an increase in showers and storms with a decrease in temps to follow. That decrease in temps will be accompanied by some absolutely awesome weather through much of the week ahead.
Waves of showers and storms are rotating through here today with an increase during the afternoon and evening. This isn’t all day rain by any means, but some pretty good downpours will be noted with any storm that goes up.
This action will end quickly from west to east late tonight and early Monday with dry weather taking control. There’s still a chance for wraparound showers dropping into northern Kentucky behind the departing low Monday night, but much of that may stay just to our north.
This animation from the NAM that goes from today through Tuesday and shows everything well…
As always, your friendly radars are on the front line…
Temps today spike well into the 70s ahead of the low then come crashing down behind the front tonight from west to east. The Hi Res NAM shows the struggle to 70 for some areas on Monday. This temp animation goes from 7pm this evening through 7pm Monday…
Can a few spots sneak into the upper 40s for lows early in the week? I think that’s a real possibility.🍁🍂
Temps recover toward the end of next week with 80-85 for many with the west being a bit above. Unfortunately, the GFS has another phantom heat wave and that means some of the same folks who promised record heat all summer long will be doing the same again. Remember the multiple days it was forecasting 110 degree temps??? Word of advice to everyone in the world of weather… The GFS is very flawed, and it seems to be intentionally skewed toward ridiculous heat that has no chance of verifying.
Regardless, it will be warmer by the end of the week and that lingers into next weekend. This is where we may see the next system dropping into the eastern half of the country.
The Candian is going for a full blown deep fall trough…
The EURO has a weaker trough with another poised to press in from the west…
The GFS had been showing a heat wave at the same time, but it joined the trough party with the overnight run…
Have a great Sunday and take care.
Airport temps that run hot….GFS warm bias? Hmmmmm
The America Weather Model is just as good as the rest. Take all with a ‘ grain of salt. ‘
Joe, just read your post from yesterday and the similarities in the SST comparison with 2010-11 and present are just about right on. La Nina shows up well on all the SST charts but I found out yesterday that a strong La Nina doesn’t translate necessarily into a typical La Nina Fall and Winter. It has to do with all the Teleconnections either negative or positive phases. Example : the worse Fall and Winter in the US occurred in the years 1917-18 when there was a Strong La Nina present and the teleconnections were recorded as all negative in the AO and NAO with a positive PNA. This is why NOAA is forecasting ” equal chances ” for a mild Fall and Winter or a severe Fall and Winter. Presently the AO and the NAO are leaning towards positive and in the Fall 1917 they were already negative and stayed that way, which gave our areas a very cold Autumn and Winter with record Snowfalls.
Here’s the link to 1917-18 Fall and Winter very descriptive :
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/december_1917_january_1918
Here’s one of many Winter forecast out by NOAA ( Dec.- Jan. – Feb. ) These Folks use to display their forecast after Thanksgiving. In 1976 -77 they predicted a ” colder Fall and Winter ” and that’s what we received.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4
A very interesting article, Schroeder, I’m willing to bet that the northern jet was pushed far to the north of Alaska in that scenario, which set up a conveyor of Polar air into the Midwest, with, I’d guees, some Polar Vortex migration thrown in.
I believe that the atmospheric heating associated with Climate Change is making the expected effects from positive, negative, or neutral values of the various Oscillations more unpredictable, similar to the way that anomalous combinations of sea surface temperatures are resulting in atypical La Niña effects. Since its rollout in 2019, the accuracy of the “new & improved” GFS has been great or horrible, depending on the amount of instability that is present, and it’s a problem inherent in a lot of forecasting systems, which is the tendency to amplify chaos or chase outliers. It’s no coincidence that long-range forecasts from decades ago seemed to have a somewhat higher degree of accuracy than we do today. I have a feeling that the forecasting powers-that-be are tempted to tweak some of their algorithm’s input parameters (again!), but that is a slippery slope. Could forecasting systems be trying to do too. much, and is a one stop shopping approach becoming more difficult to control, since all of that additional heat has caused the atmosphere to become increasingly more dynamic. This is just wild speculation on my part; in a previous life I was director of forecasting for a clothing manufacturer, which used algorithms that were infinitely easier and more forgiving than their meteorological counterparts! Just some food for thought…
A very interesting article, Schroeder, I’m willing to bet that the northern jet was pushed far to the north of Alaska in that scenario, which set up a conveyor of Polar air into the Midwest, with, I’d guees, some Polar Vortex migration thrown in.
I believe that the atmospheric heating associated with Climate Change is making the expected effects from positive, negative, or neutral values of the various Oscillations more unpredictable, similar to the way that anomalous combinations of sea surface temperatures are resulting in atypical La Niña effects. Since its rollout in 2019, the accuracy of the “new & improved” GFS has been great or horrible, depending on the amount of instability that is present, and it’s a problem inherent in a lot of forecasting systems, which is the tendency to amplify chaos or chase outliers. It’s no coincidence that long-range forecasts from decades ago seemed to have a somewhat higher degree of accuracy than we do today. I have a feeling that the forecasting powers-that-be are tempted to tweak some of their algorithm’s input parameters (again!), but that is a slippery slope. Could forecasting systems be trying to do too. much, and is a one stop shopping approach becoming more difficult to control, since all of that additional heat has caused the atmosphere to become increasingly more dynamic. This is just wild speculation on my part; in a previous life I was director of forecasting for a clothing manufacturer, which used algorithms that were infinitely easier and more forgiving than their meteorological counterparts! Just some food for thought…
A very interesting article, Schroeder, I’m willing to bet that the northern jet was pushed far to the north of Alaska in that scenario, which set up a conveyor of Polar air into the Midwest, with, some Polar Vortex migration thrown in.
I believe that the atmospheric heating associated with Climate Change is making the expected effects from positive, negative, or neutral values of the various Oscillations more unpredictable, similar to the way that anomalous combinations of sea surface temperatures are resulting in atypical La Niña effects. Since its rollout in 2019, the accuracy of the “new & improved” GFS has been great or horrible, depending on the amount of instability that is present, and it’s a problem inherent in a lot of forecasting systems, which is the tendency to amplify chaos or chase outliers.
Yeah, most likely that’s what occurred to cause such severely Cold and Snowy Fall and Winter in 1917-18.
Fascinating info Schroeder. One thing that becomes evident when we look at the historic vs. current data is the influence that climate change is having on the various Oscillations, especially in areas where much above normal water temperatures are in play. It could be one of the reasons behind the GFS’s erratic behavior. It’s only been a year since NOAA unveiled the latest upgrade to GFS version 16, which was made operational in March of 2019, but I have to believe that they are taking yet another hard look at the underlying algorithms. It has to be extremely frustrating, sort of like the character Freder in the classic SciFi movie “Metropolis”!
https://youtu.be/q030WNZvXrA
We have had no measurable precipitation in the Chicago area so far this month, until today, and it is absolutely pouring rain over much of the area this morning. Very little lightning or thunder, just moderate to very heavy rain.
Of course, this happens on the opening Sunday of the NFL season, which will make for a very sloppy surface for the Bears game against the 49ers at Soldier Field.
Flash Flood Warnings have been issued for the City of Chicago and the West and SW Suburbs until early this afternoon.
Mike, that upper level low’s coldest core went right over your area of Chicago, hence your area received most of the action. Here where I live just a few scattered showers. Not good going into the driest time of the year, Hope we get the good rains later this afternoon with the cold front approaching ?
Rain wouldn’t stop the football games unless there is lightning going on. I remember watching football games when it was Snowing so hard you couldn’t make out the plays.
A very interesting article, Schroeder, I’m willing to bet that the northern jet was pushed far to the north of Alaska in that scenario, which set up a conveyor of Polar air into the Midwest, with, I’d guees, some Polar Vortex migration thrown in.
I believe that the atmospheric heating associated with Climate Change is making the expected effects from positive, negative, or neutral values of the various Oscillations more unpredictable, similar to the way that anomalous combinations of sea surface temperatures are resulting in atypical La Niña effects. Since its rollout in 2019, the accuracy of the “new & improved” GFS has been great or horrible, depending on the amount of instability that is present, and it’s a problem inherent in a lot of forecasting systems, which is the tendency to amplify chaos or chase outliers. It’s no coincidence that long-range forecasts from decades ago seemed to have a somewhat higher degree of accuracy than we do today. I have a feeling that the forecasting powers-that-be are tempted to tweak some of their algorithm’s input parameters (again!), but that is a slippery slope. Could forecasting systems be trying to do too. much, and is a one stop shopping approach becoming more difficult to control, since all of that additional heat has caused the atmosphere to become increasingly more dynamic. This is just wild speculation on my part; in a previous life I was director of forecasting for a clothing manufacturer, which used algorithms that were infinitely easier and more forgiving than their meteorological counterparts! Just some food for thought…
Not having any luck either entering a stand alone post, or responding to an existing post. No matter if I use a smartphone or tablet, when I click “Post Comment”, nothing gets posted.
Maybe if I reply to myself…
A very interesting article, Schroeder, I’m willing to bet that the northern jet was pushed far to the north of Alaska in that scenario, which set up a conveyor of Polar air into the Midwest, with, I’d guees, some Polar Vortex migration thrown in.
I believe that the atmospheric heating associated with Climate Change is making the expected effects from positive, negative, or neutral values of the various Oscillations more unpredictable, similar to the way that anomalous combinations of sea surface temperatures are resulting in atypical La Niña effects. Since its rollout in 2019, the accuracy of the “new & improved” GFS has been great or horrible, depending on the amount of instability that is present, and it’s a problem inherent in a lot of forecasting systems, which is the tendency to amplify chaos or chase outliers. It’s no coincidence that long-range forecasts from decades ago seemed to have a somewhat higher degree of accuracy than we do today. I have a feeling that the forecasting powers-that-be are tempted to tweak some of their algorithm’s input parameters (again!), but that is a slippery slope. Could forecasting systems be trying to do too. much, and is a one stop shopping approach becoming more difficult to control, since all of that additional heat has caused the atmosphere to become increasingly more dynamic. This is just wild speculation on my part; in a previous life I was director of forecasting for a clothing manufacturer, which used algorithms that were infinitely easier and more forgiving than their meteorological counterparts! Just some food for thought…
Sometimes I can’t get my post through either typing on an old lap top. I’m not really a computer type person, but I really enjoy conversing with all of you here on KWC !
I had that same problem last week
Well, that went through… here goes another try!…
A very interesting article, Schroeder, I’m willing to bet that the northern jet was pushed far to the north of Alaska in that scenario, which set up a conveyor of Polar air into the Midwest, with, I’d guees, some Polar Vortex migration thrown in.
I believe that the atmospheric heating associated with Climate Change is making the expected effects from positive, negative, or neutral values of the various Oscillations more unpredictable, similar to the way that anomalous combinations of sea surface temperatures are resulting in atypical La Niña effects. Since its rollout in 2019, the accuracy of the “new & improved” GFS has been great or horrible, depending on the amount of instability that is present, and it’s a problem inherent in a lot of forecasting systems, which is the tendency to amplify chaos or chase outliers. It’s no coincidence that long-range forecasts from decades ago seemed to have a somewhat higher degree of accuracy than we do today. I have a feeling that the forecasting powers-that-be are tempted to tweak some of their algorithm’s input parameters (again!), but that is a slippery slope. Could forecasting systems be trying to do too. much, and is a one stop shopping approach becoming more difficult to control, since all of that additional heat has caused the atmosphere to become increasingly more dynamic. This is just wild speculation on my part; in a previous life I was director of forecasting for a clothing manufacturer, which used algorithms that were infinitely easier and more forgiving than their meteorological counterparts! Just some food for thought…
I believe that the atmospheric heating associated with Climate Change is making the expected effects from positive, negative, or neutral values of the various Oscillations more unpredictable, similar to the way that anomalous combinations of sea surface temperatures are resulting in atypical La Niña effects. Since its rollout in 2019, the accuracy of the “new & improved” GFS has been great or horrible, depending on the amount of instability that is present, and it’s a problem inherent in a lot of forecasting systems, which is the tendency to amplify chaos or chase outliers.
Trying this one more time…
I believe that the atmospheric heating associated with Climate Change is making the expected effects from positive, negative, or neutral values of the various Oscillations more unpredictable, similar to the way that anomalous combinations of sea surface temperatures are resulting in atypical La Niña effects. Since its rollout in 2019, the accuracy of the “new & improved” GFS has been great or horrible, depending on the amount of instability that is present, and it’s a problem inherent in a lot of forecasting systems, which is the tendency to amplify chaos or chase outliers. It’s no coincidence that long-range forecasts from decades ago seemed to have a somewhat higher degree of accuracy than we do today. I have a feeling that the forecasting powers-that-be are tempted to tweak some of their algorithm’s input parameters (again!), but that is a slippery slope. Could forecasting systems be trying to do too. much, and is a one stop shopping approach becoming more difficult to control, since all of that additional heat has caused the atmosphere to become increasingly more dynamic. This is just wild speculation on my part; in a previous life I was director of forecasting for a clothing manufacturer, which used algorithms that were infinitely easier and more forgiving than their meteorological counterparts! Just some food for thought…
Schroeder, as you and I know how the winters 1976 and 77 was so 197i8 and 79
Winterlover, I always enjoy looking back at extreme Winter weather events. Here’s some photos from 1977-78 : https://www.weather.gov/iln/19780126