Good Friday, folks. It’s another really nice weather day across the Commonwealth as our temps slowly climb into the weekend. Once into next week, we find some changes showing up and those are rather subtle to start. That will likely be part of a more substantial change late next week into the final week or so of September.
Let’s bring the smoke right out of the gate… Literally. Some smoke from western wildfires continues to filter into our region and will do so into the weekend. Check out this animation showing the upper level smoke show…
That means our sun looks milky from time to time today and into the weekend. Skies continue to be dry as temps climb into the 80-85 degree range for many with temps a little above that in the west.
A weak front drops in here for Monday and Tuesday, bringing the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. The models show you the areas with the best chance for seeing the action…
GFS
CANADIAN
EURO
Temps spike for a day or so before a trough swings in here by the second half of next week and knocks the numbers way down.
This is when things may get interesting because Tropical Storm Fiona may become a player by this time. This storm is currently barreling into the Caribbean…
The operational models are getting more bullish on the idea of this impacting the United States, but disagree on exactly when and where. The new EURO has a Florida hit…
The Canadian is a Florida hit before going into the Gulf and hitting Louisiana…
The synoptic setup on both models is very similar with a big cool high across the Great Lakes.
The GFS continues to show the out to see solution. While that is still on the table, the trend is west toward a possible US hit.
This setup also ups the ante on an increasing threat for a major eastern US trough to develop by next weekend into the final week of the month. Not only does the teleconnections support this, but the Ensembles continue to have a strong signal.
GFS Ensembles
EURO ENSEMBLES CONTROL…
That would bring a very chilly blast of air into our region.
Make it a great Friday and take care.
Temps are great and we can handle swings. It’s moisture we could use. The last event was heavy on the “hit or miss,” so some pockets are fairly parched.
Not much in the way of moisture showing up on the fourteen day local forecast. A string of ninety degree temperatures also showing up. Low dew points may continue through the period making for local wildfires a possibility.
Tropical Storm Fiona, hopefully will copy her predecessors and head out to Sea ?
Hoping for a major change, with the very pronounce trough over our area, along with a ‘ good soaking ‘ widespread rain next weekend ?
The teleconections, specifically the NAO would have to be in near record territory towards the negative for the above to happen. At the present, the NAO is holding on to it’s neutral to positive phase, but has the tendency to go towards negative at the start of October ? We hope this happens for those who want ‘ Autumn like weather ‘ to start in early October.
That calcium sulphate analysis makes total sense, when you consider that the Cascades were formed by subduction, when the Pacific plate dove under the North American plate just off the coast, taking with it the ocean floor material, which has a high percentage of calcium.
The smoke from wildfires reminds me of a time in late May of 1980, while I was living in Pennsylvania. Mt. St. Helens had erupted a few days earlier, and the volcanic ash in the upper atmosphere had made its way across the country. The air was crisp and cool, as a cold front had just passed through the area, and there wasn’t a cloud in the sky, but the air had what I could only describe as a distinct metallic taste. Though the sky was perfectly clear, it was hazy white in appearance, but unlike a typical hazy day, visibility was sharp, right to the horizon. The weirdest thing was that you could look directly at the Sun, so naturally I pulled out my binoculars, pointed them sunward, and I was able to see sunspots! It was extremely foolish in retrospect, but many people in the area were doing it, so I decided to join in.
Smoke from wildfires reminds me of the sky after Mt. St. Helens erupted in May 1980, milky white, but unlike a hazy day, I could see the horizon distinctly. It was even possible to look at the Sun without eye protection!
We were out in Forest Grove, Oregon in the Spring of 1979 a year before Mt. Saint Helens blew her top. What a beautiful Mountain ( Volcano ) you could see her from where we were staying. Looked like a giant ice cream cone. A friend of mine who lives about 50 miles from Mt. Saint Helens / Sprit Lake area had more than an inch of ash on his home and was unable to see the Sun for a week. He sent me a jar of the ash which I had analyzed to be Calcium Sulphate.