Good Thursday, everyone. We roll on with the nicest week of weather of the entire year with dry skies and pleasant temps. As we head into the weekend, we keep the dry sky but boost the temps up a bit. Beyond that, I have a few changes into next week as the tropics come to life.
I’m also taking a deeper look toward the end of fall and beginning of winter.
Let’s get into it with today’s pleasant stuff. Highs are upper 70s and low 80s across central and eastern Kentucky with 80-85 in the west. We will see that 80-85 take up residence across the rest of the state Friday into the weekend with some high clouds showing up.
Some of those clouds may actually be smoke from all those western wildfires. This would be our 3rd or 4th go round with smoky skies so far this year.
The trend on the models is to bring a shower or storm chance in here Monday and Tuesday. The GFS and EURO both agree on this low-end threat…
GFS
EURO
As mentioned, the tropics are back and will play a role in the overall pattern across the United States. Tropical Depression 7 is likely to become a Tropical Storm very soon. Here’s the track on this from the National Hurricane Center…
That system should turn north after it goes through the Dominican and may impact the Bahamas and threaten the southeastern states. As you would expect, the operational models are having a time figuring out what to do with it and the overall pattern around here.
The EURO sweeps a couple of troughs through the east and steers this system well off the coast…
The GFS is a much closer call…
Obviously, those will change a lot in the coming days.
Whatever comes of this system, the ENSEMBLES continue to point toward a deep eastern US trough to close the month. This is the average for the final 5 days of September from the GFS Ensembles…
Looking deeper into November and December, the increasing potential for a trough in the east is there. Several of my current analog years were pretty harsh winter weather makers in December and this is where my mind is for the winter forecast. Well, at least, for now.
The JMA seasonal Model is going toward a deep eastern trough starting in November…
It essentially keeps that into December…
Seeing those positive height anomalies near Greenland and back toward the North Pole is an attention getter.
Make it a great Thursday and take care.
I don’t understand how this JMA ( Japanese Meteorological Agency ) works and how it is a weather predictor for our part of the World ? I just watch and hope we have a dramatic change to a very very negative NAO so we may have a Colder Fall and Winter instead of the typical warm and wet La Nina Fall and Winters we been having for the last several years.
Tropical Storm Fiona is heading for the Northern Leeward Islands according to the present discussion this morning and then may head out to Sea and dissipate in the cooler waters of the Atlantic ?
Very nice weather here lately, but I’m ready for a change to a real cool and rainy ‘ Fall like weather. ‘
Hello Chris. The weather has been so nice that I hate for it to end. But, I know it has to eventually. We will need some rain sooner or later. Hope we don’t have a horrible fire season. But anyway, hope everyone has a very good day. Keep up the good work Chris. BTW, I’m formerly know as, Paula T. Lewis Co. I haven’t commented for a long time. Hopefully I’ll comment more often now. Thank you so much for what you do.