Good Sunday, folks. Our dry stretch of awesome September weather is about to come to an end as we head int a much more active pattern for the week ahead. This is a pattern that will take our temps from above normal to below normal in just a few days. Things turn downright chilly as we head into the closing week or so of the month.
Let’s start with today before hitting the fast-forward button.
Highs are into the 80s with some clouds on the increase. This is ahead of a system to our north and northwest that will spit out some showers and storms north of the Ohio River. One or two of these may approach the river before the evening is over and you will be able to track those on our radars…
That threat for showers and storms will sink farther south into Monday and Tuesday but looks pretty scattered. Not everyone sees rain and those who do won’t see much at all…
GFS
CANADIAN
EURO
Temps continue to run warm and will turn downright toasty for one day on Wednesday. That’s as a strong surge of southwest winds kick in ahead of a fall cold front arriving on Thursday. You guys know how bad the GFS is when it comes to temps, and since it’s allowed to happen, one has to wonder if it’s intentional at this point.
Over the summer, the GFS routinely had temps well above 100 degrees around here and was even forecasting all-time record highs of 110-115. Obviously, we didn’t have anything even close to those numbers at any point this summer. Nothing has changed with the model as it’s forecasting temps near 105 in the west on Wednesday…
All those numbers are grossly overblown. Again, how can the weather world continue to turn a blind eye to this major issue? It is THE model of the United States of America!!! We deserve better, folks.
END OF RANT 😎😜
As mentioned, a powerful cold front drops in Wednesday night and Thursday with a line of showers and thunderstorms with some very cool air coming in behind it. This trough pushing this through also helps steer what should be Hurricane Fiona well out to see…
Euro
Canadian
Highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s come in behind that for a day or two.
Another system shows up right behind that for next weekend and unleashes what could be an even cooler blast of fall air…
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Canadian
I can already tell you that we will have a Pot of Chili Watch in the week ahead.
Have a great Sunday and take care.
It now appears that Tropical Storm Fiona will not be in a position to give us break from the micro drought in South Central and Western Kentucky, as the storm is no longer a threat to the US mainland. Fiona will likely become a Cat 1 hurricane sometime today, and currently poses a threat to Puerto Rico, but is now forecasted to turn sharply to the North. It will reach Cat 2 status this week, and could threaten Bermuda, but from there it will be a threat to shipping in the North Atlantic. The brief blip of activity we saw in the tropics seems to be backing off, as the Gulf of Mexico remains quiet. The only action forecasted over the next 5 days in the Atlantic is a tropical wave with a less than 40% chance of development, while satellite photos show yet another large cloud of Saharan dust moving off the African coast, which is another factor to dampen tropical activity. We badly need rain in Warren and neighboring counties, but the chances for that do not look good at all.
The Atlantic and the Caribbean Tropical Storm Season has about two and a half months of activity left before it’s ending. We may see more activity or less which all depends on that continuing Fall and Winter killer ( La Nina ) in the Tropical Pacific. It seems as we get closer to Autumn the stronger this third La Nina is getting and it looks to me this third La Nina has pushed the seasons farther North well into Canada ?
Here’s what the Ventusky says for the first of October. You may notice a very steep ridge over our location on the map. Doesn’t look like the Autumn season has even arrived. Hoping this pattern changes maybe by mid- October ?
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=38;-80;1&l=temperature-500hpa&t=20221001/1500
Not a drop of rain here in Maple for days. I blame the high pressure in the Southeast extending into the Gulf for causing the moisture to move West and North of the Ohio Valley.
FINALLY some good news!!!