Good Monday, folks. It’s a big week of weather changes across the region as we go from summer temps to tall temps in a flash. This happens as the first of two deep troughs digs into the eastern half of the country over the next week to 10 days.
Let’s begin this Monday weather party with what’s happening out there today. Temps range from the upper 70s to middle 80s through the region with some gusty showers and thunderstorms working in from the northwest.
This isn’t terribly widespread, but a few downpours will show up from time to time. Here are your radars…
A lingering shower or storm will linger into Tuesday with temps back into the 80s on a gusty southwest wind.
As this is happening, we are tracking Hurricane Fiona slamming into the Dominican Republic. This storm will head north then northeast well away from the US…
Fiona is being pushed out to sea by this deep fall trough digging into the eastern half of the country. I bash the GFS a lot and for good reason, but it was the first model showing this storm staying well out to see… Even if for the wrong reason.
The GFS has been the weakest model with the eastern trough but has finally caught on to how deep this gets,,,
Ahead of this setup, Wednesday is the toastiest day we will see until next summer. Highs reach 85-90 across central and eastern Kentucky with 90-95 possible in the west. Winds will be very gusty as a cold front gets set to slam in here with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and early Thursday.
The air behind this is crisp and brings highs in the 60s for a few days. Lows will drop deep into the 40s Friday and Saturday. Even the excessive heat biased GFS is finally on board with the chill, but might be too chilly with the lows…
Can you smell what I’m cooking up?
This will be followed up by another deep trough diving in next weekend into early next week. This brings our next chance for gusty showers and storms by late Saturday and Sunday…
EURO
GFS
CANADIAN
Have a magnificent Monday and take care.
I always consider that Fall officially begins when the 540 line makes its way into the lower 48!
The lack of rain is critical. At my location south of Bowling Green we picked up one inch, 7 days ago, when a freak storm bubbled up over my locale. That’s the only rain we’ve had over the past 3 weeks, and prospects ahead don’t seem promising, with a strong La Niña combined with an equally strong Bermuda High.
The 540 line is currently located well North of the border with no signs of it entering the lower 48 anytime soon. The Rain and Snow line demarcation remains, thanks to La Nina. The 540 line will eventually make it to the Ohio Valley sometime in the Winter months where it usually stalls and gives us that chance of either Snow, plain Rain or the unwanted Freezing Rain. I would prefer the 540 line to travel all the way into the Gulf States and stay there until Spring arrives for good. Don’t want anymore Ice Storms like we had in 2009 !!!
Seems like La Nina and the Bermuda High ( often called the ‘ Notorious Southeast Ridge ‘ ) are always battling it out through the Winter months and is the primary reason we do not have that many major Snowstorms here in the Ohio Valley in any given Winter.
We haven’t received hardly an inch of much, much needed Rain here in Maple so far this month. In my local forecast today, there is only a 30% chance of coverage if the Rain holds together which is now just to my North in Indiana.
I’ve been noticing that the best weather days this month, taking temperature in account have been in city of Pikeville, Kentucky. Most days with highs in the 60’s and lower 70’s with low dew points. Now that’s comfortable weather and more like the September’s I remember growing up with. Maybe the higher elevation areas of the state above 2000 feet are the places to live anymore if you want 4 defined seasons.
This is your annual reminder that chili is good any time of year. 😉
I never have felt like Sept is fall….It’s more of a transition to fall…Some years (with some exceptions) Sept can be warm and dry…sometimes hot and dry OR wet….Some random years it can be fall like…. based on my memory. It’s when we get into Oct that things really start to change (usually)
Absolutely right.
The reason why I mentioned the 540 line is because the GFS run in this post showed the line dipping into New England on the 27th and the 28th.
I grew up on the North Jersey shore, and we would see the Bermuda high establish itself in late May, and exert its influence well into September. In some cases it could cause hurricanes to avoid our coast, by turning them out to sea, while other times it would cause those storms to hug the coast.
Joe, I remember that area of New Jersey not only subject to Tropical Storms, but also major Nor’Easters, especially in years where El Nino is dominating.