Good Sunday to one and all. The threat for heavy rain is on the increase for much of central and western Kentucky today as we kick off another very soggy period. This will increase the threat for high water across the western half of the commonwealth, while the east plays the waiting game.
I will set you up with the tracking toys in just a bit. Let’s break everything down with the headlines…
– Rain will move into western Kentucky today and will become heavy at times. This rain shield will only make it so far east into central Ky before putting the brakes on. This means those in the east should enjoy a mainly dry day.
– Heavy rains will continue to pound parts of western and central Ky through Monday and into early Tuesday. Here’s a look at the area I’m targeting for the best chance for flooding problems…
– Significant river flooding is possible across much of western Ky over the next few days.
– Eastern parts of the state will see the heavy rains slowly move in later Monday into Tuesday. Odds for flooding here appear to be rather low at the moment.
– Colder air moves in by Tuesday evening into Wednesday. There is likely to be another wave of low pressure developing along the front just to our east by later Wednesday. The models don’t yet know what to do with this system as some have been blowing it up into a big storm, while others show it to be rather weak. The GFS Ensembles seem to split the difference…
– The stronger the storm, the colder the blast coming in this weekend will be.
Let’s get back to the weather of today and track some rain…
Rainfall Since Midnight
I will update things later today. Have a great Sunday and take care.
Select Page
Remember to also support Chris by LIKING him on facebook at: http://http://www.facebook.com/pages/Chris-Bailey/197923513552724
Also please Support WeatherNation TV at http://www.facebook.com/weathernation I really appreciate it.
12 ECMWF continues consistant trend keeping any snow confined further south and east. GFS has been all over the place. I’d think I-81 to I-95 more likely in terms of snow chances. Several EC runs have suggested SE KY sees a period of snow from this though. In terms of other modeling CMC, NOGAPS, JMA all say the GFS is in la-la land.
The bengals are getting killed and apparently its not gonna snow this week. Seems like its gets pushed back every time
Lots of Christmas decorations blowing down the road today!
I feel like I keep reading the same forecast over and over again. Rain, rain, rain! I have never owned a pair of rain boots until this year and I have used them way too many days! I REALLY hope it doesn’t rain all winter. I would rather have above normal temps than this….a cold rain brings me down! We need snow or warm weather for Bowling Green 😉 Can you do that for me Chris?
Seems like the snow just keeps getting pushed back
damn mitch no post on ur blod since SEPT, u need to get it togther love reading ur thoughts.
as far as this week tonite runs and mon morning will tell final tale.
Thanks Chris. Here’s a GFS snowfall map for next week.http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif I know it will change a hundred times, but it still shows a possibility. Just think if the cold air was in place now, how much snow we would be getting this week
The model flip floppers are alive & well today on the blog, as Chris has always said don’t read to much in any 1 model run, calm down folks, last time I checked winter starts on the 22nd 🙂
Well, it seems I find myself in the high risk for flooding. I gotta admit, I’m pretty tired of the rain, but what do ya do, lol. Everyone have an awesome day and thanks Chris.
I’ll take that run, puts me in 6″ to 8″ range. my gut says we might see an inch here,if we are lucky! I’ll take a miss now for a good shot closer to christmas.
still up here in NJ for a few more weeks. I’ll be back up and running on the 19th.
meteorological winter starts Dec 1st each year. Dec, Jan, Feb are the snowiest months. You’re right it’s best not to flip with each run. Tuesday is the day to iron out details.
mitch do u think there is still a shot se ky could get some accumulating snow wed-thur, or are those hopes all but out the window?
so what happened to the storm for next weekend? is it still on tab or what?
Latest NAM coming around to what the GFS is showing. I know its still a few days off, but at least showing the potential 🙂http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F04%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=078&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
wouldnt that be rain for e ky or am i wrong? thnx
It appears to me that the 18z nam is coming into agreement with the 12z gfs about a better chance for snow in ky for wed. nite into Thurs.
Thanks James for verifying what i thought i saw. Sometime i get to excited an overlook what is really happening.
That run would, but at least the models are heading in the right direction.
folks as I POSTED EARLY THIS MORN, toniteevening runs and in morn will focusing in and it looking like the trends of eacjh winter going sety us up for some several plus inches for large area with snow after rain. YIPPIE.
if this holds it great sign for model run rest the way, with the trends helping as we get closer not hurting as they always have. really like what im seeing.
may give ametur totals for areas after next late tonite run
look for CB to give hint at areas who will get in on it as well. my comments focus on E and SE, but lexc and ne looking good too for some.
Thanks a lot james. Im not too good at reading models lol still trying to learn. Is anything showing up for next weekend or shld i just focus on getting excited for wed night lol
at best i think if this trend of agreement with the gfs continues lexington would may actually be in the extreme rare event of favored area with reguard to surface low track…which is very unusual in winter situations even here though this is not going to be a blockbuster winter storm, at best someone in the lexington area sees 3-4 inches of snow. this becomes a blockbuster storm to our east when it taps the atlantic so the mid atlantic gets hit. and as of now this is best case scenario.
Ok weather folks, with this current rain storm the heaviest rain model forecast 2 days ago was for southern KY, now it has shifted to the ohio river area, this proves the models are very unreliable 2 or 3 days out??
What happened to our “early” winter? Once again, I’m disappointed by rain and snow everywhere but here. Me thinks the famous analogs are wishy-washy!
I know what you mean. Hopefully it will keep trending in the right direction.
very noticeable isnt it? the hpc had the heaviest rain from west TN into central KY that axis changed from central AR to western OH…=nw trend hopefully we can see this happen with the wed/thu system
no the front going move on out once it start to move into SE E KY nothing do really bout models. go back look at baily post as well u see the ohio river into part central ky was were the heaviest raion was to fall on the model prcip maps.
It’s December 3rd.
I’m with you for that scenario 🙂
18z GFS getting better 🙂
sure did change
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_120HR.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20111204/18/gfs_namer_090_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif CB’s latest tweet tells about it also.
CB tweeted like to see other models get on board, but nam and GFS still looking good.
monday morn run see euro,gfs and all majior models coming togther.
yea any snow will be on axis SW to ne and i 64 north and tad south mid late week, as Chris said will develop to ourSW and bring the ole warm air bubble up into S and SE and losts ovf central ky. that as of now.
rifgr now OHIO RIVER counties alway theu COV to ashland could land a decent snowfall.
but tomm morning runs will tell tell even tonite models probably have 90 percent grasp of things.
this track would be a classic no go for lexington east of the apps runner…of course west of the apps isnt good for lex either, if we could get it to go up the spine of the apps lexington isn’t cold or dry or 36 and raining with a blizzard along the ohio river lol
NE KY could get throttled, but any shift south and well we here in SEKY get throttled, shift north and that been trend west and north and most get SOOL~~
but as bailey beren point to analog year I think he on to it and a turn back to favorable model shifts are possible. this scond low that develops WILL tell how the year goes with the models, what trends we see with this evening and tomm morn tuns will be 90 percent of what happens with systems aas they get closer on models.
also note the nam does have problems with extent of precip sheild sometimes. but the fact that central KY is not in the bullseye now but is sorta close is maybe a good thing. if eastern KY sees all snow lexignton likely will not get much but if lexington gets the favorable location in reguard to the surface low then eastern KY may get mainly rain, either way its almost a guarantee that some bloggers wont be happy campers lol
TIGER WOOOODS!!!!! i pity the tour in 2012 cause he baaaaccck.
12z gfs might warrant winter storm threat mode for all of KY! 🙂
Let’s save six weeks and have the Steelers next week. What a game! The only thing that would have improved it would have been an old school storm while I was watching the thrashing!
Let’s save six weeks and have the Steelers play in the Super Bowl next week. What a game! The only thing that would have improved it would have been an old school storm while I was watching the thrashing!
all i can say is enjoy it while u can, cause in a year or two, this bengals team will be a team to be reckoned with. once we are all healthy, hopefully next yr, we will be hard to beat
More info Seth……(; sounds intriguing!
A Bengals Steelers rivalry where both teams where top of the league would be great!
I agree! But it seems like the steelers will be good forever! lol
I get the Defender radar on Lexington channel 27-3. Right now it has lots and lots of purple in the Louisville area and off to the west. What the heck is purple? I’ve never seen rain shown as anything but green/yellow/red. Is the sky falling on top of those poor folks?
Boyle County: 60* cloudy
Looking at the maps I am thinking the best chance for snow, especially more than 1 inch is well east of 75 later this week.
Here is what he is referring to…
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
I agree with and would go on to say the best chances of snow are actually east of the state for late Wed/Thu. The last 3 runs of the GFS are bogus with the late Wed/Thu system. There will be a wave that develops, but will likely side south/east of here leaving Ky high and dry.
Maybe north of berea but not all of KY
Looks like we are out of that snow in BG then……
I second both of you. Maybe the higher elevations in extreme eastern ky might squeeze a inch, but I think most of us will see the rain end as some possible light snow showers/flurries, no accumulation.
Well since winter is just around the corner it is time for me to get back on the blog. I check it every morning and keep up with all, but only write during the winter. Glad to see familiar names on here and lots of new ones too. Hope the snow comes soon! Everyone have a GREAT week!