Good Sunday evening everyone. Heavy rain continues to advance slowly across the state and is increasing the threat for flooding. We have your usual tracking toys and an update on the wintry potential for mid week and beyond.
Parts of western Kentucky have already picked up around 2″ of rain as of this writing. Some areas may approach 5″ through early Tuesday. The greatest threat of flooding is across the western part of the state with a slightly lesser threat into central Kentucky. Here’s a look at the FLOOD WATCH out through Tuesday morning…
Rain trackers…
Rainfall Since Midnight
The next item up for bids is a potential snow maker for late Wednesday into Thursday. Models like the European and Canadian had been rather bullish on this scenario until last night and this morning. Those earlier runs had a strong low developing to our southeast and lifting northeastward into the mid atlantic states. The latest Euro really isn’t too far from showing that.
The past several runs of the NAM, GFS and GFS Ensembles decided to pick up where the foreign models left off and show a fairly healthy storm and snow maker for our region. The late day run of the GFS…
The new GFS Ensembles agree…
Both of those would put down accumulating snows across much of the state. The question becomes… are they correct in this more wound up low? Some random thoughts from my little weather brain…
– The stronger low idea certainly fits the pattern of the year and past few months. How many wimpy lows have we seen slide due east off the Carolina coast?
– There is an awful lot of 500mb energy rolling through here by mid week and that would certainly support something like the above maps are showing.
– All that said… the GFS, GFS Ensembles and NAM have not been among the best performing models of late. They need a few model friends to join in their snow camp before I really bite on this.
Time will tell and I suspect all the models will converge on a solution at some point Monday.
Whatever happens with this system… a nice shot of cold will follow for the upcoming weekend…
That should have some snow showers and squalls with it as it marches into town.
I will have a full update later tonight and will keep the twitter updates going as new models come in. Have a great evening and take care.
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tx ole buddy, what i thought tomm run settle the scopre as they all come around on one solution. u the man.
Bring on the low, bring on the snow! love your updates–you definitely add character to our weather forecasts!
ohh hope the daughter had a great time with her play.
I know u did, i say u used up several roles of film.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts about this week with us Chris. Looking forward to seeing what the models show tomorrow.
Ready for some snow…bring it!!!!!
Hmmm….even if it does/doesn’t put down anything remotely wintry….are we here in Nelson County/Bardstown area going to get inot any of the action, or do we just sit out and wait our next (NOT!) turn or enjoy the ice storm???! LOL! (Sorry for the nega ‘tude…that is just what we’ve come to expect here, straddling the BG….)
Will be refreshing this page all night to check for twitter updates on new model runs Chris! Hoping for a neat little 2-3 incher!!
WKYT showed low 40’s and and fair skies for next weekend and mentioned a “chance for flurries” as the rain exits the middle of the week. It will be interesting to see how the week plays out.
Anyone, what time do the models come out this evening?
Not to rain on anyone’s parade (I am rooting for snow big time), but this seems to be the only source around at this time that supports the idea of snow. NOAA, TWC, AccuWeather, etc. don’t seem to back up any good chance of real, accumulating snow. I hope things turn out for the best and all is merry and white soon!
Not to rain on anyone’s parade (I am rooting for snow big time), but this seems to be the only source around at this time that supports the idea of snow. NOAA, TWC, AccuWeather, etc. don’t seem to back up any good chance of real, accumulating snow. I hope things turn out for the best and all is merry and white soon!
poor model support for it at this point…even if a secondary low is right, the placement is up in the air. at this point, i dont buy either gfs or nam.
Cameron, you will notice that Chris calls things much sooner than ANYBODY else. There are also many knowledgable forecasters on the blog that chim in.
I was wondering the same thing. The only thing the local mets talk about is possible flurries tue. night with no accumulation whatsoever. Strange
Don’t doubt CB! He is always ahead of everyone else. But, like he said, he needs to monitor the future model runs before he jumps on board the snow train! The other media outlets are doing the same. With the inconsistencies of the models, it is easy to get burned if you come out publicly and predict snow and 24 hours later you have to backtrack.
Looking at GFS maps, a question for the pros here….anything south of the blue line is over freezing, correct?
I think that nam run is to far inland. If the euro shifts west then things are getting intresting.
talk about a shift west!
I’m ready for spring..!
It’s December, and I’m ready to admit, the Bengals are better than I thought they’d be. Steelers took out some frustrations on them today, but Bengals still have a chance to make the playoffs…
Good luck rest of the year…
As for the impending snowfall? After 13 years of near misses, I’ll belief it when I see it, and not a second before…
Go Steelers..!
Anybody know what time the GFS and Euro comes out?? Anxious to see if they both match up well with the NAM! Sure hope they do!!
I was wondering when you, my Steeler-fan-buddy, would comment on the big win. Wow – they looked great today!
Well, also remember that these other sources are putting out their official forecasts, and Chris on here is blogging his thought process for us, sometimes far in advance of the weather. Some of these other guys might be thinking along the same lines, but they won’t put it in an official forecast yet. As for Mr. Bailey, you’ll know it’s really coming when he makes one of his official calls for snowfall.
GFS is usually out by 1130-1145AM/PM. Euro comes out around 200-215AM…unless you have a paid subscription to get it in real-time.
No…its a bit more complicated than that. It depends on what maps you are looking at. 0 degree line at 850MB or less does not always indicate snow. You need to also look at the 2 meter surface temperatures. Taken verbatim on the latest NAM run, it would be a rain to snow scenario for KY.
gfs is coming out now
And the GFS says no snow for any of KY…see if its ensembles agree with it…Maybe we could have something of potential interest this week but the GFS and NAM could not be further apart. I’ll wait to see what the EURO says but GFS seemed to cave towards it
funny how the gfs goes to the euro solution everytime. the new GFS looks a lot like the past two EC runs. I’ll stick with the idea any real snow stays in the mtns of far se ky then along 1-81 northeast into the mid-atlantic coastal regions.
new gfs goes toward the euro, and i believe that is all she wrote for any real snow chance.Maybe next time folks.
Only have to look back at last week when the GFS did this. Remember the Euro and GEM were developing the cutoff over the LA delta, while the NCEP camp was so progressive? Then all of a sudden BAM! NAM and GFS both locked on to that idea.
Surprise, surprise. Snow has disappeared from the blog again. Maybe someday it’ll stay in the forecast
NAM is on board tonight with a decent snow Wednesday night and Thursday. Always interesting to see what will happen in the next couple of days.
It sure does feel like someone is missing from the blog this winter, oh wait..where is Bubba g?/ darth bubba? Lol.
Any chance for some Lake-effect snow this weekend?
Seems like every time we get within 2-3 days of the snow it takes a different route lol
Im not a weatherman but i the local mets are giving sunny skies so i wouldnt expect much if any
Has Chris put out a winter forecast yet?
Even if it doesn’t we should get in on decent lake effect this year. Considering, the waters are warmer than average and we are expected* to have multiple arctic bursts.
Linc, u know better, if u expect snow in ky, its not gonna happen LOL
For some reason, I just don’t feel the excitement this year for Winter. In year’s past, I’ve been waiting on pins and needles for the latest model runs. This year, I just have the attitude that whatever happens, happens. FWIW, I think this Winter will be disappointing for most of us. There’s been no long lasting cold snaps, nor does one look looming on the horizon. Sure, we’ll have plenty of quick hitter, but nothing with staying power, unlike last Winter season. And, we’ll have our usual winter storm threats that look great at 5 days out but turn into rainmakers.
Chris, I think you need to put a garish banner up at the top of your page with a link to your winter forecast. It must come up at least once per post in the comments. 😛
Haha just wishful thinking!!
What the %#2!! I woke up to the potential of snow and now its all but wafted away. What gives? Snow dome…firmly in place no matter what any analogue year says.
The only one thats not giving snow is the 00Z GFS the other GFS runs are still giving snow!
Watch the NAM…If this truly is a snow setup and it continues to hold on to this idea for the next 36 hours, the other models will follow, except maybe the GFS.
However, if the NAM waffles during the next 36 hours, don’t bet on any serious snow chances.
I’m surprised by the GEM, normally aggressive when it comes to cold and snow for the region. I think they’ll come around to the wintry idea pretty soon.