Good Monday everybody and welcome to the first full week of December. Things are starting off on a soggy note as heavy rain works eastward across the state. This will continue to cause high water concerns through the day… especially across the west. Some areas there have picked up more than 3″ of rain already.
We are also keeping a close eye on the model madness that’s going on with the potential for a mid week storm that COULD bring snow our way. More on that mess coming up in a bit.
The heavy rain and high water threat is of main concern today. A slow moving front is working eastward as ripples of low pressure work northeastward along it. The heaviest rain will slowly work into central and eastern Kentucky as the day wears on. Rainfall of 1″-2″ will be common through Tuesday across these areas.
It’s the western part of the state where the flood risk continues to be very high. An additional inch or two of rain will be possible in this area early today before we turn the heavy stuff off. River flooding is a given in many areas.
Let’s track the rain…
Rainfall Since Midnight
Colder air will work in behind the heaviest rains with a definite chill in the air for Tuesday as a lot of areas stay in the 40s. This is where the models begin having issues.
Let’s set this up for ya. A few days ago… the European Model and several others were forecasting a more potent low to develop just to our southeast and east Wednesday into Thursday, putting us in line for snow. Those models then jumped off board and showed no storm. It was at that point that the GFS and NAM decided to pick up the storm torch and run with it with both showing a healthy snow event.
The latest run from the GFS then jumped ship and showed no storm at all. The NAM held serve…
While the GFS gave up on the storm… it’s own Ensembles average continues to show some action here…
The UKMET also likes the storm idea…
The European Model is slowing coming back around to the idea of a storm to our east…
Just take a look at the models above and notice how they all have a common theme of actually showing a storm, but the slightest difference in each of their timing and track has a BIG difference on our actual weather.
Let’s sit back and watch for the model trends of today and see what they bring us. We can’t control it so we might has have fun watching it. 
Oh and the big blast of cold is still coming late Friday into Saturday…
That should have snow showers and squalls accompanying it as it blows into town.
More updates coming your way later today. Have a great Monday and take care.
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I dont think it will snow. Im from the older generations and I just dont feel it in my bones yet. It may snow some but it wont amount to anything.
Here is last nights GFS that went out to sea http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F05%2F2011+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=081&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M and here is this mornings GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F05%2F2011+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=075&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M so it’s coming back. the NAM is still there too. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F05%2F2011+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=078&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
06zNAM shifts east, GFS compromises, east Kentucky still in the hunt for accumulating snow.
By the way, did Jackson NWS office mention ‘accumulating snow’ possible?? Now, that’s something new.
MY WEATHER CRYSTAL BALL (LOL) IS SNIFFING OUT A WINTER STORM WATCH TO BE POSTED FOR EAST KY..WITH EITHER 3-6″ OR 4-8″ OF SNOW POSSIBLE…
NO IM NOT A METEOROLOGIST
BUT I DID STAY IN A HOLIDAY INN EXPRESS LAST NIGHT!!!!:)……LOL…LOL..
Looks like north of the track is where the snow will be…So places like Tn,Ky,and Va may see a decent snow…Of course things can change so who knows at this point..
We’ll take it…Hopefully here in Harlan County we’ll get more than that…lol
LMK is going “mostly sunny” on Thursday. I think at this point that’s a gutsy call. If the models do come back around, then you’ve got to completely 180 your forecast. I think it would have at least been better to carry more sky cover for now while the data sorts out.
Sounds good to me…Hopefully Harlan County will get more…
Still raining here in Owensboro this morning and it will continue throughout the day. Local mets are giving a chance of snow on Thursday, but only a 35% chance. NWS out of Paducah is giving sunny and 40 for the same day. Maybe the models will figure themselves out today 🙂
Sorry…I didn’t see it posted the first time. But we are excited about snow!!!
I’m so confused. 🙁
12z NAM goes east 🙁
The models will not likely trend back westward. Why? Simply no blocking downstream and that darn SE ridge. If we were already in a -NAO pattern, we would have seen the gradual shift westward. When the models can not get the upper levels right, there is no way it will get the surface features correct.
Not a good day for Bengal Fans!!! Oh well, the next game is what we need to concentrate on! Just like the weather–Rain now,,but hopefully snow and cold starting wed/thursday.
I don’t want a “shot” of cold though..I want a whole bottle of it!!!!
As of today, wettest year ever in Evansville, Paducah, and now Louisville.
The first of several “misses” for the lower Ohio Valley over the next three months, I’m sure! 🙁
This is the way it is going to come down all year long, with near misses for the Louisville & Lexington areas
New GFS says hllo snow storm, east TN, VA, NC, and NE. Eastern KY some light snow, Central KY and west, no snow, not even a flurry. Knoxville may get 12 inches plus according to that run.
Well, the 12z gfs is showing a nice swath of snow for Roloville.
Hopefully it trends much further north and west to give the rest of Kentucky a few solid inches. I don’t mind if SE kentucky gets pummeled with a foot of snow as long as we all can get at least a good 2-3 inches of snow.
You know this near miss crap is really getting old. I mean come on now. Let us in on the snowy goodness just once.
Well, the 12z run still shows a fairly strong low. I mean, eastern KY stands the best chance at seeing anything. But I wouldn’t count LEX out just yet. The upper air charts don’t look totally unfeasable to me.
as i stated today models would tell the tell and for the winter, and by look of it ole rolo might hit this one right in the nuts, i myself dont see it trend ing more north as i think afternoon evening run all will say a nice early season storm for us here in as SETHsaysd ROLOVILLE and parts of central ky as well.
i willing to say right now 3-6 inches can fall with higher amounts in higher elvation and lower in the valleys.
that said it could become a MAJIOR STORM by this eveninf runs. and by the trends i think it 60 percent chance it could be bigger, will wait and see.
I always thought that the SE ridge caused storms to trend westward.
another thing is it going trend at end nnw i forgot to say that but just enough to thump SE ky with the heaviest snow.
right looking good as models are coming around.
another thing is stronger storm colder the air, the temps will play big part it what sticks, but it come down hard enough so it will lay.
Rolo…how much do you think for here in Harlan County?
CB just said a slight trend west with the models nw west that should be perfect as i just posted i thought going happen. he just tweet 45 dsec ago.
WES lookimng like HARLAN going be in SWEET SPOT as of right now ole buddy.
GOOD!! Thanks Rolo!!! Love reading your posts!
Were still in the ball game for snow. CB’s latest post says he thinks it will trend NW a bit. Now if were still down in the bottom of the ninth(tomorrow evening), then I’d say game over. Until then, enjoy the game(model runs).
I’m loving your thoughts and hoping you hit it on the head…thanks for your thoughts on this 🙂
I need a weather/snow update…someone please throw us an update…Chris? Please….I’m dying here. lol
I’d say Chris is probably waiting to see the 12z EURO before updating. 🙂
How often do those come out?
WOW! its actually hard to believe that its gonna even RAIN here in se ky…with sunshine,temps in the low 60’s feels almost springlike…hard to think by this time thursday we could be measuring snow!!!
I know. I believe that these warm temperatures will cut into any type of accumulation that we get. I hope not. I’m ready for it!!!
The EURO comes out twice a day. 12z should start in about an hour. I expect by 2:30pm, we’ll know where it stands.
“rolo might hit this one right in the nuts” Eh heh, heh heh heh.
Raining hard on i64. Hopefully it will be snowing hard on i64 later this week!
Thank you!!!
No problem, Wes. Most of us here know how frustrating it can be waiting for snow updates. 😉
I know…it’s killing me. Thank you for your help!!!!
Suspense is getting to me. Please no continued near misses here in Mercer. Last years frequent small snows were such let-downs. Just enough to make getting to work a nuisance. If we are going to get snow, lets get a “real” one, like when I was growing up in Harlan in the late 70’s, 80’s. Snow to the tops of the tires on the cars. By the way, I just started reading CB last winter…..do the models for snow always digress so much in the winter as this and last year? I am still learning. Think Snow!
YAWN…..(stretch)
That was a good sleep….time to wake up & get going.
Welcome back big fella…
You better get your lazy tale outta bed! Now get out there and do what your suppose to do! 😉
Boyle County: 1:35pm 57* Rain .39
I could be reading this wrong but the AO, NAO and PNA do not look favorable for winter weather thru at least the 20th or so. The rest of the month is questionable.
What do ya’ll think about the Central Kentucky area? Rolo I am really looking for your imput/
I may be wrong but the Euro seems to be too far east! Please correct me if I’m wrong cause I sooo wanna be wrong!
uhhhh what ? looks like a bunch of garbage!!!
Does anyone have a link to see the ECMWF that’s put out?
12z ECMWF doesn’t want to play ball. CMC and GFS still blow a storm up, but its extreme eastern KY only. Looks like the energy scoots east to fast before cyclogenesis.
Have a bad feeling that this one will get away from us also…either be a rain event or we’ll get nothing. Or like George Carlin said, “You cats in the East will get rain…you cats in the West will get a dirt storm…you cats in the middle will get mud.”
actually a more detailed look of the ECMWF brings some light precip back into the LEX region wednesday afternoon with about .25-.5 qpf for most of se ky. rain changes to snow. low track similar to nam.
For what it is worth the NWS just updated their forecast at 3:05 and said “there is uncertainty with the storm and that a change in the track could mean a snowier forecast so stay tuned!”
Henry M. has se ky in the coating to 3″ area for this thursday storm.
No Chris updates means no snow for KY, Just going by a past winter pattern 🙂
In some ways yes. However, it is better if you have some blocking upstream which induces a wave to dig an pop a surface low pressure system up. The SE ridge is just a big buffer that the wave will move around.
going to be hard to snow when temps are pushing 50 and sun shining!! go back to sleep ole man winter
The 18z Nam brings the storm so tantalizing close, even hits pike county with some good stuff. Please come west just a little bit more.
Just what I was thinking. I don’t care when we get it but I want a snow that lays down more than 2-3 inches this winter. What happened to the 6-12″ snows I remember from back in the early-mid 90’s? Was I just a little boy and thought they were bigger?!?!? Keep up the good work Chris!
folks its been cold lately at nite mornbing, neing warm today has nothing to do wuith snow layuing, what dies it how hard it snows how strong low is as it be colder, at 35 degrees snow will layinmg WED and thursday.
AS FAR NO UDATE FROM CB, he said he was going watch all model run for rest of day and see what happens, u here from him in next hour or sooner before he goes on air.
Read CB’s tweet…”Been in market reseach meetings this afternoon and just getting around to the new models. REALLY liking the snow threat for Wed PM-Thu AM.”
why is your first sentence wrote like a kindergarten student and the next one like an adult — are you bipolar ? huked on fonics worckd fur rolo
You must be new here.? Rolo runs the comment section, so maybe a little respect for the man we call Rolo.
new here????? where have you been all summer and fall, nobody post on here till winter comes and nobody runs the comment section …. so biggins up your piehole.
looking for the weather Friday thru Sunday, have to go to Nashville for the weekend and leaving Friday morning, dont want to drive in the snow….
sunny and cold … but you better ask emerson biggins or rolo since they own the comment section
Snow or no snow? I’ll live with either – just as long as exams go off without a hitch on Thursday afternoon. (That means keep the snow out of Pulaski County until Thursday night – because if too much falls there earlier than that it may lead to shutting down the college on one of the last days of exams.)
at this point williamsburg to pikeville look to get in on an advisory type event. so far theres been snow to our n,s,w, this time will fill the “to the east quota”
What grade are you in?
DT of wxrisk.com explains what MJ is talking about here pretty well on his site, be warned this guy i think obcesses over single model runs a little too much but he has called some big ones pretty far out in the past/
🙂
a question for anyone with a more technical knowledge of models…why does CB post the 850s sometimes? these are not surface forecasts are they? i know its a few thousand feet above the surface, wouldn’t the 2m maps be surface temps?
MR SUN u are new hear if u just been heresummer and fall, as EMMERSON and alot of us been her for 6 plus years. u are alowwed to comment as ROLO aka ME types his thoughts and misses a letter here and there and perioddsss. im no english majior. MOMBORING u should hace common sense to know that was morning ready my whole statement by the way,
EMERSON tx for having my back ole buddy.
NOW CB been in meeting all day and just now looking over all model info and he is liking what he is seening for WED pm and thursday AM. says he update shortly.
SE/E KY looking good.
Time to go snow chasing. I wonder where the sweet spot will be, central VA or somewhere in WVA, the next 24 hours will tell
GFS, GEM are trying to get on board with the NAM as it leads the way.
Still anyone’s guess but east/southeast KY could go under WWA while WSWatch could go up for far east/southeast KY by tomorrow.
Pineville, Harlan, Pikeville, you MIGHT get a taste of what all of us are drooling over right now.
WhooooHooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!
Please…please…please…let this happen!!!
I have been reading and sometimes posting on this site since I was going to UK 4 or 5 years ago.
Lincoln was in high school and Rolo has always made my day with his thoughts. Where is coffee lady? Anyhow, I know I can always count on Chris and fellow posters to help keep me prepared for weather events. My 3 year old keeps asking for snow . We need at least a little bit here in Waco!
That was just rude and if you were a regular on here, you would appreciate what posts Rolo contributes because he a realist that is pretty accurate to boot. We all enjoy hearing from him.
I read the blog everyday and somtimes posting but I love it during this time of year because the blog explodes and really comes alive! HURRAY FOR SNOW !!!!