Good rainy Monday evening everyone. As heavy rain continues to pound much of Kentucky… it’s time to turn our attention toward the increasing threat for accumulating snows for parts of the state.
The period in question is from late Wednesday into early Thursday as a fast moving low pressure develops to our south and works into the mid atlantic states. Some thoughts on this…
– The models seem to be settling on the above scenario but differ in track and intensity.
– There seems to be room for a slight shift north and west with the track of this low. This is backed up by the potent energy aloft and a 3 year trend of similar storms.
– Here is a rough outline of the odds of seeing accumulating snow from this system…
– None of that is set in stone and those lines will move around as the track of the low is established.
– That is for accumulating snows and has nothing to do with totals. There is the potential for some areas to pick up on several inches of slushy snow Wednesday night. That could prompt a threat designation for some.
– It looks like the precipitation starts as rain Wednesday afternoon before making a quick transition to snow by evening. This will be a very fast mover!
– As you can tell by the lines… I am expecting a sharp cutoff to the back edge of whatever accumulating snows impact the state.
There you have it… let’s sit back and watch the trends of the models into Tuesday. I suspect they are not done correcting themselves.
I leave you with your rain and temp tracking tools…
Rainfall Since Midnight
Current Temps
I will have updates on anything new via twitter and will update this post if I need to. Have a great evening and take care.
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funny how rainstorms stick around for 48 hours but snow makers move out in 6-12 hr 🙁
i know this q has been asked alot, but anybody know when the next model runs (of any kind) come out? thnx
THE GFS , NAM, CANADIAN, NOGAPS COME OUT AROUND 10:30PM AND THE EURO COMES OUT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. I HOPE THIS HELPS. MY BROTHER WORKS AT THE NWS IN CHARLESTON AND HE SAYS IF CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE ARE THE SAME TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY ARE NOW THEN WINTER STORM WATCHES MAY GO OUT FOR EKY AND WESTERN WVA. BASED ON THE INFO THEY HAVE NOW AND CURRENT TRACK HE SAYS THERE WOULD BE 4 PLUS INCHES OF QUICK HITTING SNOW FROM LATE WED. INTO EARLY THURSDAY, ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HOUR WINDOW.
yea this was never goingbe a severe few inches as it be to warm low to mid 30s, slushy snow that say if u get 3 inxches would been 5 if bvelow freezing, it will be fun to see it because it will be a HEAVY SNOW as CB said its a fast mover.
tx LEGEND for update, we need start looking end of month towards JAN as i think we could see some FUNKY WEATHER, there be COLD AIR if we can a a strong clipper or 2 to roll thru. as i dont see a BIG DADDY southern storm at all this season but 6-8 inches is possible like last year with numerous clippers moveing thru with UPSLOPE SETTING UP!!!
I say SE KY see 2-4 inches with this coming up, and most fall overnite and in higher elvation towards border could see some slick roads, the valley be fine but as i said it come downb hard over nite wed into early thursday be gone by thursday eveng as it melts once SNOW quits falling.
hry BAILEY what kind temps u seeing right now WED NITE? if it gets little satronger as it looks and as u said a NW/W TREND udsually happens and that up the totals i gave to more of a WET/SLUSHY snow. if we got to freezing it could get funky but i dont see it right now.
of course why would it be any other way here in Kentucky.
Thanks a lot toney. Really appreciate it.
Not that I would expect anything different but looking at Chris’s snowfall map I can see the fence setting up and providing central ky with the kind of snowfall we’ve grown to expect. little or next to nothing.
I started reading this site about 4 years ago when I was going to UK. Lincoln was in high school
Rolo always made my day
Where is coffeelady?
Anyhow, my point is, I love reading CB blog and all of your posts. It really goes a long way to feel prepared for weather events. THanks EveryOne!
This is my 3rd winter reading the blog, and it’s one of the first things I check of the morning. And then check multiple times a day for comments and updates! I too love reading the blog and all the comments that people have to offer! Thanks Chris, and everyone else too!!
tx Muddy, yewa and were BUBBAG he didnt die did hew while i was gone.
i say Coffeelady been busy or she been on today, look for her to post early morning tomm i say.
Vinny need post to even if he moved, his steelers running wild lately.
miss BERNIE too and were julie from frankfort at.
and TABITHA my home girl needs to be posting, we got a facebook page in honor of BAILEY its Fans of Chris Bailey-Clay County and Friends Chapter
Hoping for a slight shift northwest to give Anderson/Franklin Counties some snow Wed night! I know it will be a stretch but I’m crossing my fingers!
Hi Rolo what are the odds of me seeing a little snow in Pikeville??? Are they race track betting odds j/k??? Good to see and hear from you hope your health is well.What is the song for the day??????
4 years and nothing has changed, we are all still waiting to ACTUALLY get snow!! hahahaha. :p
Lets face it guys, the only snows we’re going to get this year is lake-effect, and wraparound snows. Bummer aint it?
rolo!!!!!!!!!!! wad up dogg?
So like I said, Pikeville is going to get hammered. Lexington.. iffy. Louisville.. nothing. But at least this will be a fun system to watch. I consider it an appetizer for the January coming up. Eventually the gates are going to bust open on that airmass in Canada.
How far north in the eastern part of the state?
HA HA its funny because its true. The biggest snow I have gotten since following the blog the last 3 years is 5 inches.
How many times have we seen this setup for Kentucky about 2 days out? The snow looks to be ready to hammer us and it shifts. I’m still holding out hope for those lines to trend NW if the models act like they have for the past 3 years.
And when it does, it will be dry. 🙂
What abt us here around the Ashland area. My birthday is Friday and I said this would be an awesome birthday present. The first “SNOW”! lol
I would say maybe Lawrence Co…This is a fast moving system so taking surface temps into consideration and the speed of the system don’t see how it could amount to much…Better than nothing though..
From Jackson Weather Service…Forecast for Eastern Harlan County.
Wednesday Night: A chance of rain showers before 9pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9pm and 2am, then a slight chance of snow showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. North northwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.
Typical. Louisville gets the shaft. Im going to move to Alberta to get snow.
Yeah…I actually kinda wonder about that…
Yeah, so here’s the deal. Two problems with this storm. One is the track of the low. The models are currently keeping it on the coast and with the App. mountains between us and the low, there’s going to be a super-sharp cutoff to the precip. like Chris said. On top of that, IF the low does trend farther west, we still won’t see snow here because then we’ll see an increase in low level warm air advection and temps. may not even make it to the freezing point. So, snow MIGHT fly in Lexington, but the odds of accumulating anything around here are slim right now. Pike County on down toward Harlan County and Bell County.. you’ve got elevation to help you and more time in the precip. field so if you see snow you are more likely to get some accumulation. Overall, currently my opinion is that this is a non-issue storm for 115 Kentucky counties.
That has been my thought for a while. We never can get the mouisture and snow together. When it does turn cold in January, all of this precipitation will be history.
anybody notice chris’ tweet about the ton of moisture?
Dang it! My county (Rowan) is mostly in the chance area 🙁 Only the SW tip is in the good chance area. Let’s hope it moves west and doesn’t warm up as WXman warned.
Hey guys! Long time no chat 🙂
If anyone is interested… Here is my preliminary scenario map for our storm, I pinpoint where I think the heaviest snow will fall.
>> http://i43.tinypic.com/1z6r2ps.jpg
Also, KentuckyWeatherChat is still open! Just click my name and your there to chat with everyone 🙂
crunch time as the nam is rolling in, please shift west.
LOL…Same down here in Bardstown…oh, wait! That’s right! Nelson Co. gets the ICE STORMS!
*Got room in the U-Haul??! 😉
Nam goes east, hardly any snow for far east ky, possible flurries and snow showers back to Lexington, but no storm for any counties in ky. Turn out the lights this one is over
Not what chris tweeted or am i confused?
Chris’ last tweet less than 15 minutes ago disagrees….
i was thinking the same thing
he don’t disagree, but i believe i found the confusion. If you look at the above comment i said i wanted the nam to come west but it did not, so i should have said stayed east instead of went east. And yeah the nam is not showing any real winter storm threat for anyone in KY.
HEY THERE MR. MET. WANNABE AND MR. KNOW IT ALL. U MUST THINK U KNOW IT ALL THE WAY U GET ON HERE AND RAMBLE ABOUT NOTHING. U R A JOKE!!!! LOL!!!!!!!!!!!
GFS out yet?
Typical the same old story. the glass is always half empty when relying on a snow forecast model. Models should be used only for entertaining purposes during the winter. You will never get a chance to play with house money.
starting now
update me as quick as u can tom lol
depending on where you are, in extreme eastern ky you got a chance, maybe a brief period of light snow back to about richmond or so.
looks to me that all the models have went east slightly except 18z nam
It takes a big person to run of at the mouth under a name like annonymous!
hoping you’re on to something
lol!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sure! Let’s Roll! 🙂
There is no model consensus yet on the wed-thur storm, but how many times have we seen a low shift W-NW the last minute. I am saying that this time tomorrow night much more will be clear. Wayyyy to early to be making assumptions let alone a forecast. The 0z models tomorrow should tell it all. I live in Harlan county and of course im a little psyched, but I am thinking that a last minute shift W-NW is probable if not likely. I wouldnt even pay much attention to the 6z runs either.