Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for making us your online stop for weather. We continue to keep close tabs on a potential snow maker for parts of the state from Wednesday into Wednesday night. This is a potent little storm that looks better and better the closer we get to it.
We have a slow moving front draped across the region today and this will be the focal point for on and off rain and drizzle. Far western Kentucky may even see a few flakes flying by from time to time. Temps will be on the chilly side with readings generally in the 40s.
This same boundary slowly slips to our east into Wednesday as low pressure develops along it. This is something I’ve been talking about as a possibility for several days now and the models have been serving up their usual flips and flops, but are slowly keying in on how this all plays out.
One of the things to really watch for is the energy aloft. This is a tightly wound upper system that even tries to close off as it passes across the area on Wednesday…
The look of the upper levels argues for an inland surface low with a lot of moisture to work with. This is exactly what many of the models are showing. The GFS and NAM look a tad too progressive for my taste and the rest of the models love the inland low idea for late Wednesday.
European Model
Canadian Model
UKMET
All of those models look very similar with the track of the low and would allow for the precip shield to expand fairly far to the west. A quick breakdown…
– I expect rain early Wednesday for many areas with a touch of some snow mixing in.
– Rain will change to snow during the afternoon as cold air wraps into the backside of the strengthening low pressure to our east.
– Snow would continue across the east into Wednesday night before quickly ending before from the west.
– How far west can the rain and snow shield get? That is yet to be determined, but I think it can get to interstate 75. How about the odds of getting accumulating snow?
– Whatever falls will be on the wet and slushy side, but could really add up across parts of southeastern Kentucky. I will get a first call map out later today.
The plunge of modified arctic air is still on the menu to start out the weekend. This means the coldest air of the season moves in and will likely be accompanied by snow showers and squalls from Friday evening into Saturday morning.
I leave you with the your daily weather trackers…
Current Temps
Updates to come your way here on the blog and via twitter. Have a great Tuesday and take care.
Select Page
Thanks for the update Chris! just a couple things to point out…first off, your blog clock needs to be set back one hour. it is still on spring forward time, lol…secondly, we never got a winter forecast posted on here. You forgot us 2 straight years on the winter predictions. 😉 i know you’re crazy busy. just thought I would give ya a heads up!
Paging the Jefferson County Snow Dome. Please report for duty. “Here I am!”
It never fails to appear. Either gives Southern Indiana 3 feet or East kentucky the snow! Sick of it. I wanna pop the dome
well, I am happy. Looks like I am in the “good chance” zone. love it
c-BIV I believe he did give he winter forecast, you must have missed it. I see the central KY snow dome still is there. Good, it’s too early for snow days. How many days until Spring?
Be patient the widespread snows will come we will get active in January if you really look at the nation in a whole the snow events have been fairly quiet. Besides the freak snowstorm that hit the northeast in October and the snow out in the Rockies nationwide its been fairly quiet with snow.
Last climate update put KLEX YTD for rainfall at 63.80. Since then, another .21 or .23 of rain has fallen…which brings the YTD rainfall at 64.01 or 64.03 I think? This past rain event total so far at KLEX is 2.11 or 2.13 as of this writing. I don’t see anymore on radar, so perhaps that’s it for the rain. Not much more to go to break the record. Pretty wild!
no snow for you!!!… 75 days till spring … just not seeing much winter here in December, January will be bad
I’m really ok with no snow, but I just don’t want any more cold rain! If it isn’t going to snow til January…. fine……but please turn off the rain!
firs this was never mention as a MAJIOR SNOW for anybody, for us that been around we saeen this quick glancing blow system before. look like it shifted east a tad also overnite.
with that said the TEMPS are to warm for anything but a little slush, I was hoping for colder air but aint happening as it going be rain with a hour or 2 tops of snow.
hey its gave us something to talk about anyway.
1-2 inches possible if u are 2500 feet or higher, and after dark the valleys see little skiff on ground but once snow stops it gone in 20 minutes.
noticed BAILEY said MODIFIED ARTIC air still on tap this weekend, that a sign models havw warm up from the air it was showing last week.
CB u the man and tx for all u do.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AND SEE PRECIP LARGELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
WILL CALL FOR A POSSIBILITY OF 2-4 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. BELOW 2500
FEET…MOST PLACES COULD SEE RAIN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE
IN THE DAY…BUT TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMULATION.
THE WX SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING…WITH CLEARING SKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
I’m one happy lady that the snowfall is a bust!!!! hopefully this will be a snow winter for kentucky!!!!! Bring on spring weather : )Keep the snow north of Kentucky. We don’t need or want snow or ice. Snow and ice storms are dangerous.
Chris did his winter forecast in the Lexington Herald Leader. http://www.kentucky.com/2011/11/27/1974467/expect-winter-to-be-as-harsh-as.html
FYI, there is a button at the bottom of the screen called “check spelling”. It’s real close to the button you have to press to submit your comment. You should try it.
This will be a dud, kind of like the bottle rocket that shoots way high into the air and poofs…temperatures too warm for the snow to stick unless you live on top of Pine or Black Mountain.
His complete and total lack of grammar or proper use of the English language is what makes rolo who he is. Those visiting this blog for the past several years like his comments and find humor and joy in them. You can beat him in Scrabble, but I guarantee he’d whip you in any trivia game pertaining to weather or equine topics.
Chris still says accumulating snow (check the latest tweet), others saying no….why the discrepancy?
1 to 3 inches for extreme SE ky…rest of East ky may see some white on the trees before it melts…Not much but its a start…
i just saw a snowfall forecast from another source that showed 3-6″ for east ky..its gonna be interesting to see how much chris thinks will fall..
Just curious….for those of you who are contradicting Chris’ ideas, do you have a meteorlogical background that qualifies you to make your judgement, or our you just every day people like me who are just shring your opinions and gut feelings? I am not being critical, just curious why such discrepancies show up sometimes.
well said sunshine
i’m glad I have at least one person who agrees.
Another snow we will get to watch on TV going east of most of KY, this is getting old watching other folks get the snow. Even the Desert southwest gets more snow now than Central KY?
Its schnizzling in Lex.
Yea, don’t care for snow, im praying it will be mild winter without snow, bring on the sunshines : ) But thankfully the snow is pretty much bust for kentucky and that makes me happy. I feel sorry for the elderly and sick without good sources of food and heat during snow or ice storms. like i said, keep the snow away.
Yea, don’t care for snow, im praying it will be mild winter without snow, bring on the sunshine : ) But thankfully the snow is pretty much bust for kentucky and that makes me happy. I feel sorry for the elderly and sick without good sources of food and heat during snow or ice storms. like i said, keep the snow away.
tx CB for twitter UPDATES,
been back on tweeter for a week or so and it helps to keep track when u tweet.
as far as forcast goes, we need when it changes to snow for it to HAMMER DOWN DOWN and it will lay, maybe we can get some cooling if low moves closer as well as it deepens.
u never know till it starts.
BLIZZARD TIM is right there SEVERAL other sources saying/showing decent snowfall,
but it will have to be some HEAVVVVY SNOW falling to mount to 3 plus inches. I mean HEAVY unless temps go colder than it looks now.
jeff, chris hits more than he misses when it comes to winter..but this is a blog and alot of times he post/tweets ideas about the snow (NOT THE ACTUAL FORECAST!)..He will give his forecast ideas, like the map he sent out, He said he will a call on the amount of snow for what areas sometime today,,But yes, nobody else(weather experts) is calling for much
rolo we love you just the way you are…
C Bailey batting average is in TED WIILAMS range as to weather. fact is the blog/com,puter age has ruin people as we can talk bout the models as BAILEY does weeks out and some of u go ohh it going snowe a bigIN cause C BAILEY SAID SO.
no he didint, u have to keep model runs and the MANs REAL FORCAST seperated, now as i said he said yesterday and now today its going snow in FAR SE and E KY and u can take that too the BANK cause it will, but nowhere did he say how much etc because no REAL FORCASTER worth their weight will. now he will this evening as he is right now finalizing his forcast after lookin at latest info and then and only then can u say Chris B is GIVING this,that or what. can i get a AMEN!!
WINTER a slobber knocker to do and i tell u this he spot on as far as what going happen with the SNOW tomm evening.
cause it going snow and he been saying that for a week, so how he miss it. some of u are funny.
i think we need a PHYSC to volunteer services for the board during winter, i know there one out there in the blog!!lol
ole Rolo misses the OLD SCHOOL winters when we get a foot or more then it be 10 below zero and lay on for a month as more and more snow would fall listen that was the good ole days. and someday it will happen again but its a cycle that might not change for 20 more years or it could change next year.
loved crumbling up bread feeding the birds, looking out at nite under the street light were i grew up watch it hammer down. this before computers and stuff, u watch 6 clock news and that it. u just waited on it to start un like now u can watch minute to minute.
nothing like that feeling when the flakes started falling, the excitment as u know its on now. but these days kids dont know what a real SNOW/WINTER is and im starting to feel like they never will.
as u all know it takes basically a act of god to get a SNOWSTORM here over past decade.
maybe eventually my neices and nephews will see what their daddy and I mean when we say OLD SCHOOL.
and this just some thoughts from the great English and typing Majior Sir Rolo the RENECK.
Love it man, keep ’em coming Rolo. Always look forward to your thoughts, imperfect typing, grammar and all.
Will this weather warrant any Winter Weather Advisories? I think that most of are wanting snow so badly that we get disappointed when it doesn’t…but that is the nature of this thing.
Computer models are man made thing, they can be wrong, The weather on the other hand does not no to go by a computer forecast, Finding, no matter what happens in weather that is the way it was meant to be 🙂