A Few Snowflakes and Record Lows Possible

Good Monday, everyone. It’s one of the coldest air masses in mid-October history that’s engulfing the region for the next several days. This wintertime looking setup will give us the chance to set record lows and to see some very early season snowflakes.

We’ve got a lot to talk about, so let’s get this party started with some headlines:

Cold winds are blowing out there today as temps drop from north to south. The northern half of the state will spend much of the afternoon with upper 40s to around 50 while the south reaches 50-55 for many.
Those cold winds will make the day feel much colder than what your thermometer shows.
As a strong northwest flow kicks in tonight, a plume of rain and snow showers from Lake Michigan will develop. For a time, this band may be oriented in a fashion that can bring some snowflakes into central and eastern Kentucky.
The flakes aren’t a slam dunk, but the odds are pretty good for some folks to see flakes early Tuesday.
The chance for some flakes and clouds complicates the Tuesday morning low forecast. Let’s simplify this… If you have clear skies all night and into Tuesday morning, your temps reach 20-25 and likely shatter records. If you have clouds, you temps will be upper 20s to low 30s.
Wind chills will drop into the teen for a few spots Tuesday morning.
The rest of your Tuesday will feature temps likely staying in the 40s for much of the area. Gusty winds make it feel much colder.
This sets the stage for another chance to set record lows on Wednesday morning. Lows will hit the low and middle 20s across much of the state. Highs Wednesday afternoon reach 50-55 for many.
We get one more frigid morning in the 20s for Thursday as the cold slowly loses its grip by late Thursday into Friday.

To best illustrate the snowflake potential, take a look at the future radar from the Hi Res NAM. This animation starts tonight and rolls through Wednesday morning…

Again, that’s just a few flakes possibly showing up and nothing more, but it’s a rarity this early in the season.

Temps will come up by the end of the week into the weekend with a good shot at some 70s again.

From there, we are likely to see the pattern get more active for the final week of October with several big dips in the jet stream…

I will have another update later today, so check back. Until then, here are your radars to follow the development of rain and snow across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes…

Have a great day and take care.

10 Comments

Schroeder on October 17, 2022 at 7:17 am

Time to turn on the heat after a very low utility bill this month. Great, uneventful, but beautiful Autumn weather will come to past, but won’t escape our memories.

Can’t figure out this present La Nina as to what weather type it may bring to the Ohio Valley this Winter ? Will it be warm and rainy or cold and snowy or a continuation of the same.

At the current time we all have to be concerned about Wildfire danger. I understand that some Wildfires have already occurred in areas of Western Kentucky ?

Snow flurries could happen in the East, but doubtful for Western and Central Kentucky. Our biggest snows come from moisture off the Gulf not from Alberta Clippers or Lake Michigan. On rare occasions we may receive a fetch of snow showers off the Lakes.

JoeDfromBG on October 17, 2022 at 11:16 am
Yesterday’s cold front passage, like most fronts this year, yielded no rain. Once again the culprit was a lack of an associated moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico, which is strange since it’s presence is usually more prevalent during La Niña years. Stranger is the fact that even when a Gulf flow is present, the associated humidity numbers have been less than expected during a year when sea surface temperature and rates of evaporation, from climate change-driven atmospheric warming, have been among the highest on record. It’s no wonder that forecast models are producing such chaotic results, when they try to predict a week or more down the road. One thing is certain: the current La Niña defies expectations!
JoeDfromBG on October 17, 2022 at 11:42 am
Schroeder, like we’ve seen so often this year in South Central Kentucky, yesterday’s frontal passage left us high and dry. Some light showers showed up on the radar to our west, but dissipated rapidly when they hit the drier air over our region. The absence of a moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico normally associated with La Niña is puzzling, especially when you consider that Gulf water temperatures and evaporation rates are higher than normal. Moist air is there, but doesn’t seem to be able to hitch a ride northward!
Current temperature from my PWS is 50°F, which is 12° colder than yesterday at this time. The trees are showing some of the best color in at least a decade, but the order in which the trees on my property are turning is totally different. I have a large maple tree and a large sweet gum tree in my backyard, and the maple tree has always turned first, at least for the past 26 years (!), but this year it’s reversed, where the sweet gum is about halfwayturned, and the maple has just started. The same applies to a pin oak, which is usually the last to turn, but is well along this year. There is nothing so constant as change, when it comes to our weather!
JoeDfromBG on October 17, 2022 at 11:53 am
Like we’ve seen so often this year in South Central Kentucky, yesterday’s frontal passage left us high and dry. Some light showers showed up on the radar to our west, but dissipated rapidly when they hit the drier air over our region. The absence of a moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico normally associated with La Niña is puzzling, especially when you consider that Gulf water temperatures and evaporation rates are higher than normal. Moist air is there, but doesn’t seem to be able to hitch a ride northward!
Current temperature from my PWS is 50°F, which is 12° colder than yesterday at this time. The trees are showing some of the best color in at least a decade, but the order in which the trees on my property are turning is totally different. I have a large maple tree and a large sweet gum tree in my backyard, and the maple tree has always turned first, at least for the past 26 years (!), but this year it’s reversed, where the sweet gum is about halfwayturned, and the maple has just started. The same applies to a pin oak, which is usually the last to turn, but is well along this year. There is nothing so constant as change, when it comes to our weather!

JoeDfromBG on October 17, 2022 at 12:04 pm

Like we’ve seen so often this year in South Central Kentucky, yesterday’s frontal passage left us high and dry. Some light showers showed up on the radar to our west, but dissipated rapidly when they hit the drier air over our region. The absence of a moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico normally associated with La Niña is puzzling, especially when you consider that Gulf water temperatures and evaporation rates are higher than normal. Moist air is there, but doesn’t seem to be able to hitch a ride northward!
Current temperature from my PWS is 50°F, which is 12° colder than yesterday at this time. The trees are showing some of the best color in at least a decade, but the order in which the trees on my property are turning is totally different. I have a large maple tree and a large sweet gum tree in my backyard, and the maple tree has always turned first, at least for the past 26 years (!), but this year it’s reversed, where the sweet gum is about halfwayturned, and the maple has just started. The same applies to a pin oak, which is usually the last to turn, but is well along this year. There is nothing so constant as change, when it comes to our weather!

Illinois Mike on October 17, 2022 at 1:22 pm

It’s a very cold, windy day in the upper 30s for much of the Chicago Metro Area, and we’ve already seen some very light snow just around sunrise. The most favorable chance of snow later today and this evening is in NW Indiana.

High temps in the 70s are in the forecast here for this weekend.

Schroeder on October 17, 2022 at 2:02 pm

Maybe a very cold and snowy Winter up your way Mike and it’s starting early. Around a foot of Lake effect snows have already accumulated in Northwest Michigan. Keep that snow shovel handy.

JoeDfromBG on October 17, 2022 at 3:30 pm

JoeDfromBG on October 17, 2022 at 3:33 pm

Test

JoeDfromBG on October 17, 2022 at 3:33 pm
Like we’ve seen so often this year in South Central Kentucky, yesterday’s frontal passage left us high and dry. Some light showers showed up on the radar to our west, but dissipated rapidly when they hit the drier air over our region. The absence of a moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico normally associated with La Niña is puzzling, especially when you consider that Gulf water temperatures and evaporation rates are higher than normal. Moist air is there, but doesn’t seem to be able to hitch a ride northward!
Current temperature from my PWS is 50°F, which is 12° colder than yesterday at this time. The trees are showing some of the best color in at least a decade, but the order in which the trees on my property are turning is totally different. I have a large maple tree and a large sweet gum tree in my backyard, and the maple tree has always turned first, at least for the past 26 years (!), but this year it’s reversed, where the sweet gum is about halfwayturned, and the maple has just started. The same applies to a pin oak, which is usually the last to turn, but is well along this year. There is nothing so constant as change, when it comes to our weather!

Schroeder on October 17, 2022 at 7:17 am
Time to turn on the heat after a very low utility bill this month. Great, uneventful, but beautiful Autumn weather will come to past, but won’t escape our memories.
Can’t figure out this present La Nina as to what weather type it may bring to the Ohio Valley this Winter ? Will it be warm and rainy or cold and snowy or a continuation of the same.
At the current time we all have to be concerned about Wildfire danger. I understand that some Wildfires have already occurred in areas of Western Kentucky ?
Snow flurries could happen in the East, but doubtful for Western and Central Kentucky. Our biggest snows come from moisture off the Gulf not from Alberta Clippers or Lake Michigan. On rare occasions we may receive a fetch of snow showers off the Lakes.
- JoeDfromBG on October 17, 2022 at 11:16 am
  Yesterday’s cold front passage, like most fronts this year, yielded no rain. Once again the culprit was a lack of an associated moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico, which is strange since it’s presence is usually more prevalent during La Niña years. Stranger is the fact that even when a Gulf flow is present, the associated humidity numbers have been less than expected during a year when sea surface temperature and rates of evaporation, from climate change-driven atmospheric warming, have been among the highest on record. It’s no wonder that forecast models are producing such chaotic results, when they try to predict a week or more down the road. One thing is certain: the current La Niña defies expectations!
- JoeDfromBG on October 17, 2022 at 11:42 am
  Schroeder, like we’ve seen so often this year in South Central Kentucky, yesterday’s frontal passage left us high and dry. Some light showers showed up on the radar to our west, but dissipated rapidly when they hit the drier air over our region. The absence of a moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico normally associated with La Niña is puzzling, especially when you consider that Gulf water temperatures and evaporation rates are higher than normal. Moist air is there, but doesn’t seem to be able to hitch a ride northward!
  Current temperature from my PWS is 50°F, which is 12° colder than yesterday at this time. The trees are showing some of the best color in at least a decade, but the order in which the trees on my property are turning is totally different. I have a large maple tree and a large sweet gum tree in my backyard, and the maple tree has always turned first, at least for the past 26 years (!), but this year it’s reversed, where the sweet gum is about halfwayturned, and the maple has just started. The same applies to a pin oak, which is usually the last to turn, but is well along this year. There is nothing so constant as change, when it comes to our weather!
- JoeDfromBG on October 17, 2022 at 11:53 am
  Like we’ve seen so often this year in South Central Kentucky, yesterday’s frontal passage left us high and dry. Some light showers showed up on the radar to our west, but dissipated rapidly when they hit the drier air over our region. The absence of a moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico normally associated with La Niña is puzzling, especially when you consider that Gulf water temperatures and evaporation rates are higher than normal. Moist air is there, but doesn’t seem to be able to hitch a ride northward!
  Current temperature from my PWS is 50°F, which is 12° colder than yesterday at this time. The trees are showing some of the best color in at least a decade, but the order in which the trees on my property are turning is totally different. I have a large maple tree and a large sweet gum tree in my backyard, and the maple tree has always turned first, at least for the past 26 years (!), but this year it’s reversed, where the sweet gum is about halfwayturned, and the maple has just started. The same applies to a pin oak, which is usually the last to turn, but is well along this year. There is nothing so constant as change, when it comes to our weather!
JoeDfromBG on October 17, 2022 at 12:04 pm
Like we’ve seen so often this year in South Central Kentucky, yesterday’s frontal passage left us high and dry. Some light showers showed up on the radar to our west, but dissipated rapidly when they hit the drier air over our region. The absence of a moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico normally associated with La Niña is puzzling, especially when you consider that Gulf water temperatures and evaporation rates are higher than normal. Moist air is there, but doesn’t seem to be able to hitch a ride northward!
Current temperature from my PWS is 50°F, which is 12° colder than yesterday at this time. The trees are showing some of the best color in at least a decade, but the order in which the trees on my property are turning is totally different. I have a large maple tree and a large sweet gum tree in my backyard, and the maple tree has always turned first, at least for the past 26 years (!), but this year it’s reversed, where the sweet gum is about halfwayturned, and the maple has just started. The same applies to a pin oak, which is usually the last to turn, but is well along this year. There is nothing so constant as change, when it comes to our weather!
Illinois Mike on October 17, 2022 at 1:22 pm
It’s a very cold, windy day in the upper 30s for much of the Chicago Metro Area, and we’ve already seen some very light snow just around sunrise. The most favorable chance of snow later today and this evening is in NW Indiana.
High temps in the 70s are in the forecast here for this weekend.
Schroeder on October 17, 2022 at 2:02 pm
Maybe a very cold and snowy Winter up your way Mike and it’s starting early. Around a foot of Lake effect snows have already accumulated in Northwest Michigan. Keep that snow shovel handy.
JoeDfromBG on October 17, 2022 at 3:30 pm
Like we’ve seen so often this year in South Central Kentucky, yesterday’s frontal passage left us high and dry. Some light showers showed up on the radar to our west, but dissipated rapidly when they hit the drier air over our region. The absence of a moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico normally associated with La Niña is puzzling, especially when you consider that Gulf water temperatures and evaporation rates are higher than normal. Moist air is there, but doesn’t seem to be able to hitch a ride northward!
Current temperature from my PWS is 50°F, which is 12° colder than yesterday at this time. The trees are showing some of the best color in at least a decade, but the order in which the trees on my property are turning is totally different. I have a large maple tree and a large sweet gum tree in my backyard, and the maple tree has always turned first, at least for the past 26 years (!), but this year it’s reversed, where the sweet gum is about halfwayturned, and the maple has just started. The same applies to a pin oak, which is usually the last to turn, but is well along this year. There is nothing so constant as change, when it comes to our weather!
JoeDfromBG on October 17, 2022 at 3:33 pm
Test
- JoeDfromBG on October 17, 2022 at 3:33 pm
  Like we’ve seen so often this year in South Central Kentucky, yesterday’s frontal passage left us high and dry. Some light showers showed up on the radar to our west, but dissipated rapidly when they hit the drier air over our region. The absence of a moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico normally associated with La Niña is puzzling, especially when you consider that Gulf water temperatures and evaporation rates are higher than normal. Moist air is there, but doesn’t seem to be able to hitch a ride northward!
  Current temperature from my PWS is 50°F, which is 12° colder than yesterday at this time. The trees are showing some of the best color in at least a decade, but the order in which the trees on my property are turning is totally different. I have a large maple tree and a large sweet gum tree in my backyard, and the maple tree has always turned first, at least for the past 26 years (!), but this year it’s reversed, where the sweet gum is about halfwayturned, and the maple has just started. The same applies to a pin oak, which is usually the last to turn, but is well along this year. There is nothing so constant as change, when it comes to our weather!

10 Comments

Follow Chris Bailey

Account Login

Weather Archives