Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a chilly wind blowing across the state today as our storm system slowly pulls away to the northeast. Some nice weather blows in behind that for a few days, but another big fall storm system sweeps in here just in time for Halloween.
A lot of clouds will be noted out there today with lingering showers across central and eastern Kentucky. This doesn’t look terribly widespread, but some drops will show up from time to time and your radars have you covered…
Temps today really struggle into the low 50s for much of central and eastern Kentucky with low 60s in the west. Gusty winds continue and will make it feel chillier than that.
Thursday starts in the 30s and ends with most in the 60-65 degree range. Friday looks phenomenal with mid and upper 60s. Highs by Saturday will be in similar territory with readings making a run at 70 as clouds thicken.
Those clouds are ahead of the next system rolling in for Sunday and Halloween. Here are a few thoughts on that one:
- It’s another low pressure working in from the southern Mississippi Valley.
- This rolls through here with showers and storms increasing from southwest to northeast Saturday night and Sunday.
- Lingering showers are a good bet for Halloween as temps fall into the 50s.
- Most of us will pick up .25″-1″ of beneficial rainfall.
- Winds look rather gusty once again.
Here’s a look at our system…
As we look down the weather road, it’s time to start looking at the teleconnections. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) and the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) are the primary players for your friendly weatherdude.
I want to focus on the EPO for this post as it’s an index that seems to have a bigger impact on our region than the others. A positive EPO generally means milder weather while a negative EPO generally means colder weather for our region.
If we look at the EURO Ensembles EPO forecast over the next 2 weeks and change, we find a trend toward a -EPO. The green line represents the average…
The latest EURO Weeklies that go through early December show the EP essentially going negative and staying there into the first week of December. Again, follow the green line…
The GFS Extended goes through the end of November, but also shows a similar trend…
That -EPO forecast certainly gives credence to a totally different start to winter compared to last year when we were toasty and snowless early on.
One of the ways we can see this change is a much more active storm track through our region. The Ensembles are showing above normal rainfall over the next 2 weeks. This does include the current system rolling through here…
EURO ENSEMBLES
EURO ENSEMBLES CONTROL RUN
Make it a great day and take care.
On Tuesday, I logged ⅔ of an inch of badly needed rain at my PWS near Bowling Green. Roadways in the area remain slick, due to wet leaves, and because it’s been several weeks since we’ve had meaningful rain in the region, road oil has built up on highway surface, and even a light rain can make those surfaces slick as ice. Be careful when driving, and keep an eye out for the “other guy!”
I’m glad you got in on the rainfall JoeD. I recorded a quarter of an inch in SE Lexington. Wet roads and leaves are especially dangerous for motorcyclists so I hope everyone is careful out there this morning.
Great advice Joe. We received approximately 0.36 inches of rain from this positive tilted trough and a*s*sociated upper level low which was a weakening system the further north and east it traveled.
If you want a Snowy scenario definitely a negative EPO and NAO especially in the ENSO phase we are currently in. A ridge over Alaska and a negative tilted trough would tap the very cold areas of Siberia and bring them into the lower 48. Snowstorms would result if the Subtropical jet is activated by phasing. Unfortunately, high heating bills comes with this setup.
.19 in Corbin, needed it to knock down the dust to clear leaves if nothing else.