Good Saturday, everyone. It’s another nice day for most of the area, but some much needed rains are about to press in. The timing on this means could be better as it will linger into Halloween, but we really can’t be too choosy right now. This is part of a much more active pattern as we close out October and roll into November.

Here are some freshened up headlines about what to expect:

  • Temps today can reach 70 or a touch better with a mix of sun and clouds.
  • A shower or thunderstorm will try to get into far western Kentucky by evening.
  • Showers and storms overspread the west and parts of central Kentucky overnight and Sunday morning. The farther east and north you are, you may not get rain until late Sunday.
  • Temps are all over the place Sunday due to the clouds/rain verses dry thing.
  • Showers and a few storms will impact the entire region through Sunday night.
  • Lingering showers will be noted on Halloween, but it doesn’t look like wall to wall stuff. I still expect a shower chance to hang with us into Trick Or Treat hours.
  • Total rainfall averages .25″-1″ for much of the state, but locally higher amounts are a good bet for some.

It’s been fun to watch the GFS go from showing no system, to showing light amounts, to now showing those areas of 1″…

Another system then moves in with some light showers Wednesday and Thursday…

I’ve talked a lot recently about the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and how much of a player it is in the weather across our part of the world. When the EPO is in a positive phase, that is usually a warm pattern for our region. On the flip side, when it’s in a negative phase, things typically turn colder around here.

We know the pattern is skewed warmer than normal right now and that looks to continue through much of next week. That may very well change next weekend as the EPO takes a turn toward negative. You can see this on the latest EURO…

So what happens to the EURO when it shows a negative EPO? Look at the trough digging in next weekend…

The flip to a -EPO has been showing up on the ensembles for a while now and they continue to show this developing and staying there as we get into the second week of November. You can see that with the green line on the EURO Ensembles…

Now you’re seeing the GFS Ensembles jumping on the -EPO train…

The timing on this transition is still in flux and the EURO may be rushing things along too quickly. The other operational models go back and forth with this setup as they try to figure the -EPO out.

To further complicate matters is what’s happening with the tropics. Things are starting to pop again and the National Hurricane Center is watching a few areas of interest…

Remember that Caribbean system I talked about possibly forming? There she is on that map.

If we do get a few systems to develop, this could very well help throw up a stop sign to any changes trying to work eastward across the country.

I will have another update later today, so check back. I leave you with your radars to track the rain into far western Kentucky…

Have a good one and take care.