Good Sunday to one and all. Our big wind maker is now moving away from us and it’s leaving some decent weather into the start of the new week. Massive changes will take place by the end of the week as a full-blown wintertime pattern sets up for much of the country, including our region.

Our cold front is moving across the region early this morning, but it’s a cold front in name only. There just isn’t anything cold behind this thing. That said, it is still spitting our some scattered showers and storms with the best chance early today in the south and east.

Here are your radars to follow along…

There’s a slight chance for a lingering shower or storm in southern Kentucky again on Monday, but that’s not a big deal at all. Temps come down a bit by the time we get into Tuesday as a weak front drops in from the north. That has all of zero precipitation with it.

The tropics continue to spin up some action with the increasing likelihood of a named storm going up near the Bahamas…

For the record, this is the system I’ve yapped about developing for nearly 2 weeks now. That’s a slow-moving system that has a chance to become a hurricane as it threatens Florida or the Carolinas for a Wednesday or Thursday landfall.

As this is happening, the winter trough that’s been blasting the west with cold and snow is going to eject to the east and into our region by the end of the week. That will bring a REALLY cold shot of air in here next weekend. Can we get that trough and the tropical system to hookup? Right now, the models have that hookup looking more possible along the east coast as the cold crashes in here.

Here’s how the GFS sees this all playing out…

The Canadian…

The EURO has enough of a northwesterly flow for some wraparound flakes…

This is the beginning of a full-blown wintertime pattern setting up for the second half of November. I’ve been showing you how the various ensembles have been signaling some very cold air during this time and the operational models are also fully on board.

Check out how far below normal those temps are from the Canadian Model. This animation starts Friday night and goes through Tuesday the 15th…

Wowza!

The GFS is also going for some big time cold for that same period…

If we expand the GFS out as far as it can go, it shows this below normal pattern continuing into Thanksgiving week…

With this much cold, one has to like the chances for some flakes to fly on more than one occasion.

All of this fits my analogs, but might be just a touch ahead of the game with the winter pattern setting in.

I will have another update for you later today. Make it a good one and take care.