Good evening, folks. Winds are slowly coming down after a super windy Saturday across the Commonwealth. Showers and some rumbles of thunder continue to push through as a cold front washes out on top of us.

I’m also focused on a very interesting pattern taking shape for the week ahead. It’s one that takes us from warm to winter with very little transition time.

Let’s start with what’s going on out there as we get set to wrap up your Saturday. Winds are coming down, but not before several areas recorded peak gusts of 50mph.

A line of showers and storms is moving across central Kentucky and this will work into the east as we work through the rest of the evening and into the wee hours of Sunday.

Here are your radars to follow along…

A leftover shower or storm will be around on Sunday in the east, but much of the area stays dry. Temps range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Monday through Wednesday is largely dry with temps still averaging above normal.

More than 2 weeks ago, I started to focus on what looked to be an uptick in tropical activity and one system in particular. The pattern looked ripe for a super slow-moving system to develop around the Bahamas or the Caribbean and that’s the one I’ve talked about backing up the pattern. The National Hurricane Center continues to highlight this system…

The slow-movement of that system should allow it to become a named storm. The models are putting Florida in play for a possible landfall.

While that system spins toward the southeast, a wintertime trough is kicking out of the west toward us by Friday. There’s the chance we get the winter system to hookup with the tropical system in some capacity.

Regardless, a very cold air mass slams in here next weekend and has an outside shot to spit out some flakes.

The models will continue to change a little from run to run, so always keep that in mind. Let’s take a look at the current snapshot of what the models are thinking with this setup…

CANADIAN

GFS

EURO

That’s a rather abrupt change to cold and it’s not a cold that is only around for a day or two and departs. It’s likely settling in for a much longer stay and the ensembles are showing that.

These are 7 day temp departures from average that run from Saturday the 12th through Saturday the 19th…

GFS ENSEMBLES

CANADIAN ENSEMBLES

This is all going according to plan, but I don’t want to say that too loudly cause Mother Nature might hear me.

Don’t forget to fall back tonight. I’ll see you guys with an update around the time those clocks hit the rewind button. Enjoy the evening and take care.