Good Monday, folks. Temps stay on the pleasant and mild side for much of the week, but changes are ready to roll in by the weekend. Those changes mean a much colder setup as our pattern takes on more of a winter look that settles in for the second half of the month.
Temps out there today range from the middle 60s to low 70s as a weak front drops in from the north. There’s still a slight chance for a stray shower across the far southeast early on…
This front knocks the numbers down some as we head into a good looking Election Day. Go vote, folks!
70 degree numbers likely show up again for Wednesday and Thursday, but this is the end of the line for the warm temps.
We have a wild looking weather map showing up across the country this week. A tropical system is likely to slam into the Atlantic Coast of Florida while a major wintertime storm system rolls out of the west. Those two in tandem change up the entire pattern.
Let’s start with the tropical system that may very well become Hurricane Nicole. The National Hurricane Center has this area highlighted for a high potential for development…
This storm will likely head into Florida by Thursday and then rapidly turn to the north and northeast as our wintertime trough moves into the eastern half of the country by Friday. The Hurricane Models all show this general idea…
That has a chance to bring some rain into far eastern Kentucky but the cold front working through here is on a mission and that mission is to totally change the pattern. A wintertime look and feel quickly sweeps in here for the weekend.
Here’s how the models are playing this whole setup…
GFS
CANADIAN
The EURO is the farthest west track and would mean a better chance for Friday rains around here…
Can we get some northwest wind producing snowflakes from that? I can’t rule that out just yet.
Temps and winds behind this are cranking and that’s going to lead to some seriously cold wind chills. Check out the numbers from 7pm Saturday through 7am Monday…
GFS
CANADIAN
That’s frigid and will be a shock to the system!
Speaking of a shock to the system, this pattern has a chance to go deep into the winter tank next week. An absurd block in Alaska and western Canada may force the arctic to dive into the United States. Check this out…
That type of pattern would surely produce some snow chances.
Again, that’s what the ensembles have been suggesting for a while now. It also goes along with the EPO going strongly negative and my overall analog package. That said, this amount of cold would be a few weeks earlier than my favored analogs suggest. There was one secondary analog year that had something this early and that was 1950. 👀
I will have another update later today. Have a good one and take care.
im dreaming of a whittttttttteee thanksgiving.
That would be nice and festive to have Snow on the ground at Thanksgiving.
I am dreaming right there with you
EPO going negative, but the AO and the NAO are holding neutral. At one time there was a Hurricane Kate and it was a late Tropical storm that occurred in November, but I can’t recall what year. Too bad that Tropical Storm Nicole won’t be closer to our area to give the State a good soaking rain. The dry, cold Arctic air has the best chance of the two events.
It seems that the combination of a negative EPO plus the ridge caused by warmer than normal waters of the Pacific south of the Aleutians pushing the jet stream north of Alaska, is behind the unleashing of Winter into our region. But the simultaneous presence of a neutral AO and NAO is in large part responsible for the setup being moisture-starved; just what we didn’t want to see. It’s one more reason why the effects that we expect during a normal La Niña Fall/Winter have not materialized in 2022.
Great observation Joe.
Yes I would rather see this pattern emerge in late November/ December. Could be the makings of a stingy winter
In addition;
Also appears that the ENSO is trying to modify into a Neutral statis around the first of the year
You may be right Ricvice on ENSO La Nina going neutral around the first of the year. I believe also when the Tropics settle, the progression of troughs and storms will make it to the Ohio Valley without diminishing.