Good afternoon, folks. It’s a cold day across the Bluegrass state as clouds thicken ahead of what will be a busy week ahead. Rounds of heavy rain will target the region and may very well put down too much rain, leading to high water concerns.
A boundary stalls right on top of the region with waves of low pressure working along it. This means rounds of heavy rain targeting Kentucky and Tennessee especially. Here’s the area I’m highlighting for heavy rain and possible high water issues…
The rainfall forecasts from the models will continue to vary a bit in location of the heaviest rains, but they’re fairly consistent with the above map…
This is the battle zone between the southeast ridge and the cold fighting in from the northwest. That cold ultimately wins the pattern with passage of the system next weekend and that unlocks a cold a wintry pattern starting the week of December 12th.
The GFS is now a brand new version of the model so it’s too early to tell how it will do over the long haul. I can tell you it still takes some absolutely wild swings from run to run, so consistency is a big issue. I’m noticing the model is trying to develop big ocean storms that simply don’t exist, which then impacts what’s happening across the states. It, like the GFS version before it, overdevelops heat, too.
Regardless, we are stuck with it. Here’s what it’s showing for early the week of the 12th…
The Canadian is much colder and farther west with those developing storm systems…
Check out the cold on that run of the Canadian…
I’ll give you another update later today. Have a good one and take care.
I never did put much stock in any weather model, but we really need to catch up on our soil moisture. Maybe it will happen before the Spring planting season begins ?
That Canadian weather model tells me the Polar Vortex will weaken and ” unlock the door ” allowing the very frigid Arctic air to invade the lower 48 ? Why would they make such a prediction as this ? Are they telling us that the Tropical Pacific has gone to ENSO – neutral all of a sudden and really weaken the Southeast Ridge ? Impossible I think.
My local forecast has rain almost everyday and night predicted for next week with temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s for highs and 40’s for lows. No mention of any Arctic outbreaks in the extended.
Schroeder as long you have been on here and so have I Chris knows what he’s talking about. Don t listen to your local forecasters about the extended forecast
Thanks Winter Lover, I’ve been on KWC for a number of years and this year has been ruff for me health wise. With that said I need not be so negative with my post, but I tell it as I see it. That’s just the way I am.
Schroeder,
Which weather forecast are you talking about, that you use? If you’re looking at a cell phone app or Accuweather, or even The Weather Channel, they will likely not ever show a cold outbreak a week in advance. These forecasting outlets almost never predict cold or below normal temperatures until it’s right on our doorstep.
If you want more accurate midrange forecasts, you need to find a different forecasting source.
I primarily go by what NOAA has to offer.
The Ventusky has been fairly accurate also on their 14 day extended runs all through last Summer to the present. On their temperatures, precipitation and potential Snows. I might add we have yet to receive a flake of Snow here in Maple.
I do not own a smart internet phone. I wouldn’t know how to operate this technology. I just have an old laptop that I’m typing on now. LOL
The current modeling for the week of the 12th shows a clipper type system impacting our area at the beginning of the week with rn/sn as the predom p-type; a possible mixed bag. Later in the week, there is a better chance for some accumulating snows, especially across the eastern half of the state. Accumulations do not appear to be major snowstorm type snows, but there may be some nuisance level accumulations.
Alberta Clipper systems in our part of the world generally bring a lot of wind and very cold air with about an inch of very dry Snow. I remember onetime in 1964 there was a clipper that dump eight inches of Snow in Terre Haute, Indiana. I was a boy then with my parents as we got stranded and had to spend the night in Terre Haute. The next morning the Snow plows were out clearing the main roads and the temperature was a frigid 5 below zero. You don’t forget weather types like that ever.
Our accumulating major Snows start to form in the Southern Rockies and move eastward through the States south and east of Kentucky with cold air in place and tapping the Gulf of Mexico for moisture.