Good Sunday to one and all. It’s a seasonably cold day in the Bluegrass state as we focus on a forecast that brings us a lot of rain in the week ahead, and the switch to wintertime in the week that follows. Some interesting times are ahead of us.
Today features a mix of sun and clouds with temps in the 40-45 degree range for many.
Clouds quickly thicken on Monday as a system works in from the west and southwest. That brings our first surge of rain in here during the day and that will carry us into Monday and that kicks off a very wet pattern. We essentially get a front to slow down on top of us with waves of low pressure moving along it through the week and into next weekend. Rainfall totals will be a concern during this time with the potential for several inches of rain from Monday through next Sunday.
Here’s what the models are showing in terms of rainfall during that time period…
The system that comes in at the end of this next weekend is the catalyst to a much colder pattern that’s likely to feature winter weather threats starting the week of the 12th.
If we look at the what the EURO Ensembles are showing for the 7 day period starting December 11th, we find a coast to coast trough developing in the means…
The Control Run of the EURO is even more emphatic with this setup…
That is cold and stormy look with increasing winter weather threats written all over it!
Yesterday, we looked at the EURO Weeklies for the week leading up to Christmas and they were showing a deep trough and full blown winter look for the week leading up to Christmas. The CFS also likes that same setup…
Christmas and holiday cold and snow lovers are loving the timing of this particular setup! Now, let’s see just how things play out. Be good because the snow Santa is watching you guys! 🎅❄️
I will have your normal updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.
The same mechanism that are set to flood the Midwest and East with Polar air will also push the predominate storm track far to our south. Those surges are likely to be brutally cold, but they will àlso be moisture-starved. A moderate La Niña remains in place, but the “wetter and warmer” conditions that typifies a La Niña Winter in our region, remain missing in action!
It concerns me the ” 540 line ” is well to our North on each model run. A mention of the ” Pineapple Express ” appearing later this week was in NOAA’s discussion this morning.
Polar Fronts loose their moisture because they loose energy over the Northern and Central Rockies after depositing huge Snowfalls.
The 500 h Pa, 5500 m ( GFS model ) continues to show a strong persistent ” Southeast Ridge. “
I also read that NOAA synopsis as well. I also observe the the MJO losing intensity as well heading into neutrality and into phase 4 area. That can and does often contribute to the Pineapple express effect, guess it’s a wait and see.
Interesting, also if the MJO really weakens or becomes non- existent and propagates eastward across the Pacific it may indicate the formation of ENSO ( El Nino. ) Which is forecast to occur sometime in February or March ?
I’m starting to get the feeling that the enso will shift more rapidly into the neutral area quicker then we first thought. Perhaps putting us in Nuetral alot of the winter with a strong el nino formation later in the year. Interesting processes occurring
ENSO – neutral, not a lot of difference in the formation of a weak El Nino in the Tropical Pacific. If this plays out we may have a late Snowy Winter ahead and maybe not that Spring freeze we been having with La Nina weakening as we enter the month of April.