Good Monday, folks. It’s a very active pattern this week and we are likely to see a lot of rain falling across Kentucky and surrounding areas. This may lead to high water issues for some before all is said and done, and then we flip things to winter into next week.

We continue to see a cold front pushing into the region late today and Tuesday. This front slows down right on top of us and becomes stationary, allowing several areas of low pressure to develop and roll along it. That means repeat rounds of rain and heavy rain across the region through the end of the week and, perhaps, again over the weekend.

Here’s the map I made early Sunday and I continue to like these areas as the favored corridor for heavy rain and high water concerns…

The forecast models continue to spit out a few to several inches of rain during this time. Here’s a snapshot of the current model runs…

Again, we need to be on guard for high water issues developing during this time.

I’ve been talking about this new version of the GFS that’s now taking over as the main model. The old GFS had some big flaws, but this new version is really, really having a tough launch.

For those unaware, the GFS runs 4 times a day and goes out to 16 days. This is called a Medium Range Model, so you do expect some swings the farther out you get in time. That said, this new run isn’t just giving small variations with each run, it’s totally changing everything with each run.

For instance, these are the last 3 runs of the model for one week from today. Look how insanely different…

Again, those are 3 runs of the GFS for the exact same time next Monday. I hope NOAA is giving this thing a serious review right now because it’s off to a horrific start.

Of course, most operational models will struggle from a week or more away, but they usually don’t have those kinds of drastic changes.

That said, we will see all the operational models go back and forth with next week’s transition toward a winter setup across the country. The latest Canadian looks like this from Sunday through Wednesday…

If you look at what the Canadian does there, it’s matching up with the Ensembles. It brings one cold shot in on Monday with a temp spike ahead of a bigger cold surge a few days later…

The EURO Ensembles look rather similar…

You typically don’t see those ensembles with such a cold signal at this range, but they’ve been consistently advertising this for a while now.

The new EURO has a similar overall setup to the Canadian, but has more of a wintry look…

I will have updates coming your way later today, so be sure to check back with us. Until then, here are your radars to track the showers increasing out there today…

Have a magnificent Monday and take care.