Anything with the name GFS has been dreadful in the medium range and that includes the GFS Ensembles. Still, the Ensembles are finally caving toward the cold look…
I’ve trashed the GFS for the constant flipping in the medium range, but even this model is catching the cold potential from time to time. The latest run is frigid…
For even more fun, the snow map through December 22…
The model literally goes back and forth between an ice age and a heat wave.
Enjoy the evening and take care.
When you consider that most of lake’s Erie and Ontario, and the southern half of Lake Michigan are relatively ice free, the lake-effect snow resulting from the upcoming pattern change, could be through (or over!) the roof!
https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/ice.html
I have a friend who lives on the lee side of Lake Michigan. He called me a while back can’t recall the year, but he was really Snowbound with up to 8 feet of Snow in a weeks time ! I told him no thanks, I wouldn’t want that much. I’m more use to 8 inches or less or none.