Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a very gloomy day out there as more showers roll across the Commonwealth. The showers taper for Sunday, but the gloomy continues a while longer as we track the winter weather potential in the week ahead.
Today’s showers are fairly light in nature but can put down up to a quarter of an inch for some. Here are your radars to help you through the day…
Gloomy skies and chilly temps will be noted for Sunday and Monday. Highs are generally in the 40s as we search the skies for any sign of sun.
Ok, you guys ready? Say it with me… I have no changes to my thoughts on the change to winter next week. 😜🥶
The Canadian Model has been as steady as any model you’ll ever find in any kind of situation…
For fun, here’s the snow map from that model run. Check out how far south the flakes try to fly…
On the flipside… The GFS is about as bad as any model you’ll ever find in any kind of situation. After totally losing this entire setup for the past several runs, it’s finding it once again…
Even the GFS tries to put some light snow down around here. I will never ever understand how anyone can use that model as the only model to base a forecast on. That’s especially true with this new version of the GFS that was recently implemented.
With cold air overwhelming the pattern through the week leading up to Christmas, an active southern storm track may very well develop at the same time…
I’ll update things later today. Have a good one and take care.
The models underestimated the rainfall today.
They seem to be underestimating after ever run here lately. Can’t keep up with Mother Nature. You can only make educated guess.
I wish the models we’re underestimating the rain this past September.LOL
The models are also guilty of overestimating.
Some decent snow means starting showing up on GEFS ensembles now.
*starting to show up
When began my second career in I.T., I became familiar with the acronym GIGO, which means Garbage In Garbage out. Now, in no way am I saying the data being input to forecast models is faulty, in fact the quality of day being input is vastly improved over what we less than 10 years ago. Nor am I in any way saying that the forecast algorithms are wonky. What I do think is that in many cases, the data being input into GFS, in other words, the extremes in values for temperature, humidity, barometric pressure, etc. are “unexpected”, due to our changing climate. The model will process these data points because they are valid, even though they may appear to be extreme. These data may produce results that don’t match up with other models, and could account for a storm appearing on one run, disappearing on the next, and then reappearing on the following run.
I would take all weather models as a guild as to what the weather will be in 7 to 14 days. Long range predictions ( 3 months ) take as entertainment.
The climate seems to be changing, but Man has not been on this Earth long enough to make that a*s*sumption. I remember years ago we had freezes in the Spring and long hot Summers with hardly any rain and mild Winters without Snow. From 1965 to 1969 we didn’t have a flake of Snow where I grew up in Indiana. I might add that Christmas was a blow torch in 1965. I just really remember the biggest Snows were in March. I can only remember there was one Winter where we received a lot of Snow from December through March with a normal Spring and that was 1969-70. A White Christmas and New Years Day 1970. The only onetime this happened in my 71 years.
In my opinion ” Climate Change ” is purely political.