Good Saturday to one and all. It’s another in a long line of ugly weather days across Kentucky with low clouds and some showers. This pattern breaks for a bit over the next few days, but things really change after that. Those changes show up in a full blown mid-winter pattern setting up.
As always, we start with the precious present. Another weak system is pushing to the east through the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley. This is bringing some light showers from west to east today into tonight.
Your radars are getting quite the workout here in early December…
Some leftover light showers will hang into early Sunday with low clouds likely staying tough through the day. Temps start to come down to seasonable levels and we hang there through Monday. That’s the day we have a chance to see some rays of sun.
You guys are probably tired of hearing this, but my thoughts on how things play out next week have not changed.
- Temps spike on Tuesday as clouds increase ahead of the storm to the west.
- Rain then sweeps east to west across the state late Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
- The trend with this whole setup is actually trending colder as we get closer.
- Wind gusts of 40mph or greater will also be possible.
- A cold front slams in here late Wednesday or early Thursday with dropping temps behind it.
- With a lot of upper level energy passing through here, and ample low level moisture, periods of light snow and flurries may show up by Thursday night and Friday.
- Light snow and snow showers will be possible into next weekend.
The Canadian Model continues to be THE most consistent model in this whole setup…
The Euro is similar…
The GFS continues to be in a world all alone as it pretty much loses the whole thing…
The Ensembles continue to have a very cold look for most of the country following that storm and that includes the week leading up to Christmas and into Christmas Weekend…
Snow chances are expected during this time, as well…
I’ll update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Wake up Rolo. It might snow next week.
im running late, had to walk little longer this morning.
The Euro is warmer than the Canadian.
At least with the backside precipitation.
watching white christmas on AMCnow, the rolouro says below zero and several inches of snow for christmas week.
“Temps spike on Tuesday as clouds increase ahead of the storm to the west.”
“Rain then sweeps east to west across the state late Tuesday night through Wednesday night.”
Is “east to west” correct?
I’m clearing brush and undergrowth in Clark County on Tuesday and have been hoping for dry conditions during the dwindling daylight hours.
Yeah, when I was reading that, I was thinking the same thing as you. Pretty sure that was a typo by CB.
I’m with you all. I want a Big Snow that stays on the ground for at least a couple of weeks with little variability in temperatures. Tired of this gloom here lately. Need some Sunshine with moderately cold temperatures. Light Snow and Snow showers on the backside of the departing storm just doesn’t interest me. Don’t like the dry, frigid Arctic air that may invade our region in the coming days. Just runs up your heating bill and could have a surprise ice storm at the end.
For me, GFS stands for:
Generally
Flawed &
Short-sighted
What boggles the mind is how many weather apps and local forecasts continue to use the GFS as their primary forecasting tool.
The signals continue to trend negative big time. Once established, the cold air will be consistently reinforced, a pleasant change from the “down one day, up two days, down one day” yo-yo we seen over the past 2 years, and any snow that falls will stick around!
Why can’t the GFS get on board with the other weather models ? It’s the American weather model for crying out loud !!!
Here’s an interesting post that talks about the differences between the GFS and the ECMWF (that doesn’t necessarily require knowledge of linear algebra).
https://blog.weather.us/model-mania-what-are-the-ecmwf-and-gfs-models-and-why-are-they-different/
Based on what I’ve read, the GFS model tries to be an out-of-the-box, comprehensive forecasting tool that can be slaved to automated forecast reports (a local news organization’s 5-day forecast), whereas data from the Euro requires more interpretation.
Thanks Joe, the article explained the difference between the two weather models very well. I still like NOAA because they ‘ pin pointed ‘ the Fall and Winter of 1976-77. The forecast came out after Thanksgiving 1976 and read like this ” the Fall and Winter 1976-77 will be colder and drier than normal.” This Fall and Winter NOAA is forecasting ” a mild and wetter Winter than normal. ” Due to La Nina’s influence, but no two La Nina years are alike. I get the impression ‘ maybe this maybe that ‘ ?
I sometimes just use common sense to determine the weather ahead, but I’m having trouble seeing what’s down the weather road this Fall and Winter. The teleconnections have really confused me here lately. The AO being very negative and the NAO negative, but the polar low continues to be strong an lock up. Is the AO polar low weak when it’s positive before it moves south into the lower 48 ? I know one thing, we will all find out how the Fall and Winter 2022-23 turned out in May 2023.