Good afternoon, everyone. Our work week is starting off on a chilly, but nice note here in the Commonwealth. Soak it up because we are about to change it up over the next few days. A big storm system sweeps through and brings a change to a harsh winter pattern for most of the country.

Rain moves across the state Tuesday night through early Thursday. The heaviest rains fall Wednesday and Wednesday night and many of us may pick up 1″-2″ of rain. The models are in pretty good agreement with totals, but have the usual placement issues…

Then we have the GFS carving out a different path and spitting out almost 5″ of rain…

Here’s why I rip the GFS. If that’s right, you’re going to see significant river flooding issues in southeastern Kentucky. 5″ of rain in a little more than a day would be a serious issue and, if the NWS believes it’s right… Post Flood Watches tonight to raise awareness.

While there’s always a chance that map could verify, it’s unlikely at this point. That’s more than double what any other model is saying. Until some other models trend that way, it’s tough to use.

Cold air crashes in behind this front on Thursday with cold temps settling in for Friday into the weekend. With an upper level system spinning through the region and low-level moisture, some light snow and flurries will be possible…

This is the point we have to question every run of every model. That’s because the extreme cold entering the country is going to throw all the operational models for a big loop. They’re going to struggle with timing, placement and strength of storm systems, and we are likely to see several next week.

The EURO Ensembles continue to show the absolutely brutal cold across the nation…

And the snow chances continue to show up all the way to the Gulf of Mexico…

I’ll have another update later today, so check back. Have a great day and take care.