Replying to the question that MarkLex left for me this morning:
Mark, the fact that whichever phase we are in is tied directly to temperature anomalies makes it difficult to predict. We can look at past history to see how long a particular El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phase persisted, (they seem to average from 1 to 3 years). However, increasing surface temperatures due to climate change are invalidating some of algorithms that are used to predict sea surface temperature anomalies. A little over a year ago, some climatologists who were saying that La Niña could stick around for a 4th year, are now predicting a strong Fall/Winter 2023/24 El Niño!
Replying to the question that MarkLex left for me this morning:
Mark, the fact that whichever phase we are in is tied directly to temperature anomalies makes it difficult to predict. We can look at past history to see how long a particular El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phase persisted, (they seem to average from 1 to 3 years). However, increasing surface temperatures due to climate change are invalidating some of algorithms that are used to predict sea surface temperature anomalies. A little over a year ago, some climatologists who were saying that La Niña could stick around for a 4th year, are now predicting a strong Fall/Winter 2023/24 El Niño!