Good Wednesday to one and all. We are finally starting to see some light at the end of the cold weather tunnel! Our big low pressure is rolling away from us and that’s allowing for a milder pattern to settle in for Kentucky Derby weekend and beyond. But can we keep the rain way from Churchill Downs?

Let’s get this party started with what’s going on out there today. Highs are in the mid and upper 60s in the west with upper 50s and low 60s in the east. Skies will become mostly sunny from west to east as the day wears on. There’s even the chance for an early morning shower in the far east.

Frost is a good bet tonight so it’s another GREEN THUMB ALERT!

Thursday looks good for Thurby with temps making a run into the upper 60s to low 70s across the state.

A system moves in here for Friday and brings an increasing threat for showers and storms into the west. This action will be decrease the farther east it gets but some of this may very well impact Kentucky Oaks Day, especially late.

The models are in a little fight with the EURO being farthest south with this system. Here’s the rainfall map the EURO…

The GFS is much farther north with the rain shield…

The Canadian has also jumped farther north…

If you’re going to Churchill Downs for Oaks go ahead and get the rain gear ready to be on the safe side.

The showers and storms should wind down early on Derby day as this system presses farther south and east.

This leads us into a much warmer setup for Sunday into next week. Temps can reach 80 on more than one occasion to go along with the chance for some thunderstorms getting into the mix…

Maybe the severe weather season will pick back up during this time.

The signal is there for temps to slide again around the middle of the month, but the ensembles aren’t showing anything close to what we are having now. The EURO Ensembles show temps back below normal…

This is part of what’s been a colder than normal spring. Look at how much of the country was below normal for April…

 

Here’s what that looks like if we include March…

Once May is over, I suspect it will be another colder than normal month for much of the country, centered farther east than the above maps.

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.