Good Wednesday to one and all. It’s a great day in the Commonwealth with sunny skies and awesome temps. Let’s soak this up because we have additional rounds of showers and storms on the way for the end of the week into the weekend.
Temps today start in the upper 40s to middle 50s then rebound into the 75-80 degree range for much of the state. With sunny skies, today is just a winner!!
Warmer and more humid air pushes in for Thursday and this brings along a few showers and storms along for the ride. Initially, this stuff is pretty scattered for Thursday…
Temps hit the upper 70s to low 80s.
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will then increase Friday through the weekend. Rounds of storms look to move across Kentucky and some of these may be severe. The models differ a bit on when they bring a cold front in here to kick this stormy pattern to the south.
The EURO is the stingiest with the storms and the fastest with the front clearing the region early Monday…
The GFS shows more in the way of storms and slows down the arrival time of the cold front…
I’m looking closer and closer at the Summer Forecast and it’s interesting to note the amount of rains hitting Texas. Much above normal rainfall is forecast over the next few weeks…
Wet ground in Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley is one way to tame any summer heat surges coming at us from the southwest. That’s duly noted and would go along with my thoughts on more of a tame temp summer around here.
Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.
It might bet wet to the southwest now, but give it time and it will dry out, providing a hot surge.
NOAA’s probability forecast for June, July and August is for a 40 % chance of above normal temperatures and a 50% chance of above normal rainfall for our area. We’ll see how this all pans out.
I like about 30-40 days in the 90s with just enough rain to keep crops watered and the water supply in good shape.
I’ve never put a lot of faith in the CPC’s long range forecasts, and even less now, as our climate continues to warm. The establishment of El Niño conditions seem to be progressing at a faster clip, with changes already showing up in the equatorial trade winds. The SSTA chart show above normal temps in the eastern Pacific continuing to spread westward:
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
More importantly, the subsurface temperature anomalies are also showing an upward trend.
Tomorrow a new chart comes out on the possibility of ENSO this Fall and Winter. NOAA is still not sure if the westerlies across the Pacific will continue, therefore they will have a better idea as to what will happen in the month of August with ENSO’s strength.
Here’s an interesting article on ENSO to tell us why El Nino Spring predictions don’t always pan out for the coming Fall and Winter.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/why-making-el-ni%C3%B1o-forecasts-spring-especially-anxiety-inducing#
That would be a perfect Summer Jeff.