Good Thursday to one and all. We continue to see an increase in temps, humidity and storm chances out there today. This leads us back into a stormy setup that will take us into Mother’s Day Weekend, at least.
Temps on our Thursday reach the mid 70s to low 80s across the state. A scattering of showers and storms will show up in the west early on and then slowly appear into central and eastern Kentucky this afternoon and evening. This isn’t terrible widespread and many of us will stay on the dry side.
Here are your neighborhood radars to follow along with what’s happening out there today…
The threat for storms will ramp up Friday into Saturday and there’s the chance for a few strong or locally severe storms to flare up. The SPC may even had that low-end risk in here at some point…
Scattered showers and storms will also be around for Mother’s Day with temps generally in the 75-80 degree range.
Once again, we find the models disagreeing on when the storms roll out of town. The EURO continues to pull the plug on the rains much quicker than the GFS with the EURO getting this out of here later Sunday…
The GFS is MUCH slower and keeps scattered storms rolling into early next week…
Regardless of when the storms move away, some hit and run flash flooding will be possible with the setup over the next several days so keep that in mind.
Below normal temps will swing in here behind all this next week and it may come at us in waves. While this is happening, areas of central and western Canada are baking with some serious May Heat.
Check out the temperature departues from normal on the EURO from Sunday through next Saturday…
Here’s the same time frame on the GFS…
Cool air shots have had zero trouble making their way into our region this spring and the CFS likes that trend into Summer. The seasonal model is forecasting below normal numbers as a whole from June through August…
This latest run actually keeps that going into Fall…
And next winter…
I continue to dive into the summer analogs and a few of them are actually pretty cool with only one really hot one in the mix. I’ll throw that forecast at you guys in the next few weeks.
Have a terrific Thursday and take care.
Like most long-term models, the CFS isn’t likely to verify.
The CFS has always had problems with long term forecast.
I could live with a below normal in temperatures for summer. I hope something will gives us some snow this winter at least a time or two. I just wish summer was summer winter was winter.
My very words Crystal. Let Summer be Summer and Winter be Winter. If we have El Nino in place next Fall and Winter with cold weather, the Kiddo’s will be able to bring ‘ Frosty the Snowman ‘ back to Kentucky and Indiana.
I know it’s 84 here now.
The May ENSO bulletin confirms that El Niño conditions are in effect, and predicts a 90% likelihood that El Niño conditions will persist through Winter, which should be welcome news for snow lovers! One stat that caught my eye was the rapid rise in subsurface ocean temperatures off of South America, which is probably why the confidence level is so high.
Here is the report:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml#:~:text=Synopsis%3A%20A%20transition%20from%20La,Ocean%20%5BFig.%201%5D.