Good Saturday, folks. It’s officially Autmn now, even as us weather nerds have been fall mode since September first. On this first weekend of Autumn, we have some really nice weather across the Commonwealth as we wait on rain chances to show up early in the week ahead.
Temps this morning are in the upper 40s to middle 50s with fair skies. A stout northeasterly wind flow will continue our there today and that knocks our numbers down. Many will see highs in the 70s with cooler numbers in the east and milder temps in the west.
Clouds will be noted across eastern Kentucky and some of these clouds are coming from Ophelia. This storm is rolling into and across North Carolina today…
Here’s the latest on the storm from the National Hurricane Center…
You can take the interactive radar for a trip to the east to track this storm up close and personal…
Sunday looks like another amazing fall weather day so get out there and enjoy.
Clouds will be increasing late Sunday with a few showers showing up across western Kentucky Sunday night and Monday…
This sets the stage for better rain chances from later Tuesday through Thursday. The models continue to waffle a bit with the setup, but it’s good to see them spitting out some rainfall…
CANADIAN
GFS
Have a sensational Saturday and take care.
Happy Autumn to all!
Happy Fall! This is one of my favorite times of the year. Love the weather but I guess we all need the rain some more than others. Just for fun everyone say their predictions for this winter lol ♀️♀️❄️❄️❄️☃️☃️☃️ I will be safe with this one more snow then last year lol no I do predict some measurable snows this year!!!
My favorite too. Now we can look forward to the changing leaves and all the colors of Autumn, but by mid November I’m ready for Winter and a lot of Snowy days ahead. Our chances have increase with maybe some impact from El Nino. Don’t know.
My favorite time of year too. Cooler weather, fall colors and deer hunting season.
Also, college and pro football get into high gear.
Absolutely Illinois Mike! College football has kept me home the last few Saturdays.
My prediction is one widespread snow of 10+ inches and a few sub-zero mornings.
Not sure if these years were EL NINO
but here seems to be decent years for snow (at least in Lexington)
2009/10 – 23.7 inches
2010/11 – 27.8 inches
2013/14 – 27.1 inches
2014/15 – 40 inches
2017/18 – 21.2 inches
2020/21 – 21.7 inches
2021/22 – 23.9 inches
of course, these are totals for the entire seasons…not necessarily big snows, though there were a few good snows in this.
Mark, here’s a list of El Nino and La Nina years and their intensities :
https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
OK Schroeder so I cross referenced the years and I discovered something. We got bigger snows with weak or moderate EL NINO’s than we did strong or very strong…. But I’m sure there are other factors in addition to EL NINO or LA NINA strengths
2009/10 was a moderate EL NINO
2010/11 was a strong LA NINA (go figure)
2013/14 (I don’t even see listed on that link)
2014/15 (weak EL NINO)
2017/18 (weak LA NINA)
2020/21 (moderate LA NINA)
2021/22 (moderate LA NINA)
Very interesting MarkLex
Mark, I think the reason 2013 – 14 wasn’t listed is because it was an ENSO / neutral year. The weaker El Nino’s of the past did produce the bigger Snows. The PDO was positive then, and also in 2014 – 15. Now with this forming El Nino the PDO is still very negative, unless it changes I wouldn’t expect much of a Winter.
Mark 2014 – 15 was a very strong El Nino, and was a back loaded Snowy Winter. NOAA may not agree with me on the PDO, but I believe it carries a lot of weight when it comes to Cold and Snowy Winters in our area.
Correction it was 2015 -16 that had a very strong El Nino that was a warm / central Pacific type and produced a very Cold and Snowy Winter.
Happy Fall too all!!