Good Monday evening. What a weather ride we’ve been on over the past several days. 70 degree temps… a snowstorm… flooding rains and hail producing thunderstorms. Wild continues to be the weather word of the week as old man winter makes another comeback.
Colder air moves in tonight with temps hitting the upper 20s and low 30s. Some sun returns for Tuesday with temps in the 40s for highs.
A weak system moves into town on Wednesday with some light rain and light snow possible. That will have an even colder shot of air coming in behind it with highs in the 30s for Thursday as lows head toward 20 degrees.
That brings us to the end of the week into the weekend and the possibility of a big storm impacting the state. We’re several days out and the models are jumping around a bit. The GFS offers a rain and mix to snow idea…
The GFS Ensembles mean brings the low in a little quicker from late Friday into Saturday morning…
That system then cranks up to our east with a better shot at some of the white stuff by Sunday into Monday…
It’s still a long way out and the models will waffle back and forth before settling on a solution. Anyone saying this storm is for sure going to bring snow is crazy. Anyone else saying this storm won’t bring snow is also crazy and not paying attention to this March pattern.
The good news is, we will all find out together in a few days. 🙂
Have a great rest of the evening and take care.
Thanks, Chris. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out. Have a great evening, everyone.
the best bet is cold rain and 40 degrees
nope…..best bet is very cold rain and 33-35 degrees
Winner
This storm is REALLY getting NWS attention. The NWS CPC shows the darkest bulls eye over Kentucky, never seen that before! For sure temps will he WAY BELOW NORMAL. Read the NWS forecast discussion and look at CPC outlook. Also the extremely negative AO!!!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LMK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
CB is correct to call either way now is nuts. That said, we could extend that convention to the entire winter season 😉
Wow, the AO is almost literally off the charts!
Wish there was a way I could have bottled the wx from my recent Cayman Island vacation and brought it here 🙁
There are some tournament games that could be affected if (a big if) the potential big Friday/Weekend storm turns wintery. Including the Cards [guys – NCAA] at Rupp in Lexington, Cards [gals – NCAA] in Louisville, Vols [guys – NIT, gals – NCAA] both games in Knoxville.
Chris does a superb job, but I will have to agree. Safe bet on Ky weather, either cold rain or a mix of snow and rain.
The misery continues. Four months in a row of models promising snow and nothing to show (at least in Knox co. less than 1 inch for year). This is the time of year to get out and enjoy the outdoors but all we get is cold miserable rain. Not being Freddy, just would like to see average temps finally get here.
Greedy, not Freddy. Lol crazy spell check.
Bottom line the storm for the weekend as of (now) has real decent potential. There is going to be a storm somewhere looming very close this weekend with a wintery aspect where it set’s up shot is still the question. AO is crazy negative hasn’t been this negative in a very long time. Thus cannot be ignored. As of now this would for sure be a rain/snow event changing to all snow and a accumulating snow at that. Gonna have to give the models time to sort this one out. Alert mode? No not yet way to early in the game. Stand by mode? I say yes.
NWS Paducah has link about this being the anniversary of the 1925 tornado outbreak.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=1925tor
A 219 mile damage track, either one twister or perhaps a family of up to three tornadoes that literally merged one after another to give appearance of one track. In comparison, the West Liberty tornado traveled 90 miles.
The Tri-State twister that is, 219 miles.