Good Tuesday, folks. Colder than normal air has pushed back into the bluegrass state and that’s been a common theme of the past month or so. Our pattern shows NO signs of going into anything that resembles true springtime weather in Kentucky. If anything, we have a shot at pulling out a top ten coldest March on record.
This is especially true given the tremendous amount of blocking showing up across the Northern Hemisphere. Pressure patterns in the Arctic play a huge role in the weather we have across the United States. One of the ways we measure this is by the Arctic Oscillation. It has two phases… positive and negative. The chart below shows the positive phase on the left and the negative phase on the right…
As you can see… a negative phase of the AO is usually a good indication of cold temps across the eastern half of the country. The stronger the phase… the more influence the signal can have. The AO has been in a negative phase for a while now and that matches up with the cold weather we’ve been experiencing. The latest forecast calls for the AO to go severely negative in the coming days…
That is about as negative as you can get. If this were the heart of winter… sub zero arctic air would likely be on our agenda. That said… it’s going to be plenty cold enough for this time of year and the models tell the tale…
That shows the colder than normal temps hanging tough into early April. I do expect a milder signal to show up for the second half of April into May and that is likely to come with a hyper active thunderstorm season.
The shorter term weather will feature the chance for some light rain or light snow later Wednesday and a more potent storm this weekend into early next week. I will touch on those later today.
Have a great Tuesday and take care.
Thanks for the update CB…
If it is going to be cold then Let it Snow. To bad all the indicies did not line up like this in January. Hopefully the track is right for the weekend and NEXT WEEK systems to support some SNOW…..I am so ready for spring…
spring break is the first week of April and we are traveling to MO, REALLY dont want cold and snow while trying to site see with 3 kids!!!!! I wanted snow Dec – Feb but give me SPRING weather for March and April!!!!!!!!!!!
The biggest snows I remember have been in March and April here in Ky.
You are absolutely right. I remember some very big snows in March and April. Been a while, but some of the biggest of my childhood were in late March and April. anything is possible.
hey those Next Week storms are going to be bad, and now it’s beyond next week, it’s getting into Next Month ….. gets old … i’ll be glad when next week gets here and nothing happens.
Next week has gotten here and nothing happened all winter. I doubt things change now, lol.
You do realize northern Kentucky just had a snowstorm, right? The world is bigger than your backyard.
That’s not you CB, is it?
Bigger than northern KY to 😉
Chris, I have a theory….It seems that our winter was more like fall and now our spring is more like winter. Perhaps our summer will be more spring like and the fall more summerlike. Maybe our seasons are just “springing ahead” to DST…(pardon the pun.) Seriously, that looks more like what we would want in the winter time to bring us that white stuff that we haven’t seen in my part of the states this winter. (I know that technically it is still winter, but can’t bring my self to type the “S” word.) 😉
that being said, it looks like old Man Winter is going to try at least once or twice more to hang on. Lets hope the Easter Bunny hops in and scares him away until this fall. thanks for the update Chris. Can’t wait to see what your next one says on this crazy Kentucky weather pattern. Have a GREAT Tuesday, all and enjoy the sunshine while we have it…probably won’t last long.
Hopefully those long range maps are wrong like they were last month when they showed march being very warm, if not maybe ill have apples on my tree this year since the early bloomers are not happening this time!
You’re right. I forgot the long range forecast was for an above average March. Couldn’t have been more wrong.
I never trust those NOAA long-range forecasts. They always seem to be wrong for this area. I think they have a warm-bias.
If they are wrong now that means it will be warmer than they are forecasting ?
I know I will get hammered for this, but northern japan had almost 3 feet of snow last week. England had so much snow it shut down the whole northern part of England. We have had one after another snow storms in the north that has not been seen in way back when. China has seen so much polution in the air that has never been seen before. An alarming number of states have been in a drought for the past few years. We have cities like Atlanta that cannot provide enough water for their populations. We have wild fires in all areas of the USA that are burning peoples houses down and just this weekend over 60 chalets burned to the ground in Gatlinburg. Now what I want is for one of you to show me this has nothing to do with Global Warming. The ice caps are going away, the polar bears are about to become extenct (sp?) because of this loss of ice. I ask anyone of you to try and justify what is happening to our climate.
I also believe in global warming. However, I also believe that 90-95% of it is a natural worldwide cycle. We know this because of the drastic warming and cooling cycles of thousands of years past….long, long before human driven pollution. It’s just fact. Are we (all humans) adding to the problem….definitely, only a complete idiot would deny this but I don’t think that the percentages of what the fanatical environmentalists throw around is even in the ballpark of what is real. Are worldwide climate changes taking place now…..yes, just as they have been changing dramatically for millions of years.
A few weak twisters in Tennessee (click here) yesterday. Thankfully no injuries, but a reminder it’s that time of year.