Good Friday and welcome to the weekend. Things are getting started off with a March feel across the state as our temps warm close to 60 degrees with gusty winds blowing. Some changes are in store for the weekend with a major change ahead for next week.
Let’s start with the precious present and work forward. Temps today will generally run in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Wind gusts may hit 25mph or higher this afternoon.
A cold front settles into the region early Saturday and will bring an increase in clouds and a small threat for a shower. Temps will also come down toward more seasonal levels in the 40s. I am still keeping an eye on the potential for moisture streaming in from the southwest Sunday into Monday. The NAM continues to advertise an increasing threat for rain. Here’s the simulated radar from the model…
There could even be a touch of frozen stuff on the northern edge of that IF the NAM is right. Most of the other models aren’t as robust with the precipitation coming that far north.
The longer range forecast for the middle and end of next week continues to focus around two major players. 1. An arctic outbreak. 2. A slow moving storm and whether or not it phases with the arctic plunge.
Number one is pretty much a given as a heck of a shot of cold comes calling by Thursday and Friday of next week. How does the storm interact with the trough bringing the arctic air? That remains to be seen and we are still 5 days away from that happening so there will be a lot of model solutions on all this.
The storm in question will be the result of a cutoff low across Texas this weekend. This will spawn a surface low that will slowly lift northward late Tuesday into Wednesday and should bring us some heavy rain as it does so. Some of the models suggest this system slides up just to our east with the arctic front catching the back edge of it. That would result in a switch to some snow with more snow showers and squalls than anything.
The other solution would be for much more of a phased solution across the Ohio Valley. That simply means the dip in the jet stream would incorporate the storm into it and mean more of a rain to snow situation around here as arctic air is drawn into it all. You would still get the snow showers and squalls as a bonus. The GFS Ensembles like the more phased look…
The Canadian Model shows the lead storm staying separated from the arctic attack, but shows a heck of a cutoff low developing from the trough with a possible low pressure wave along the front…
That’s some serious cold on the model. The deep trough digging into our region and for much of the eastern half of the country should have staying power. That setup means to watch for some storms dropping in from the northwest.
Canadian Model Sunday, January 15th
The European Model looks an awful lot like the Canadian during the same time period. As I said yesterday… we have a ton of winter weather ahead of us.
More updates will come your way later today and through the weekend. Have a great Friday and take care.
Chris, Just asking, but it seems to me that this upcoming “change” is the same look as what we have had so far this winter, a quick “deep trough” that is just for the eastern part and would last at the most 2 days, then jump back into the 40’s and 50’s. Looks like the cold isnt in the west and the east just gets a quick shot of cold then goes back towards Canada. I dont see how this next week thing looks any different???? And You have said this time and time again this year–“BIG CHANGE COMING” and it does for maybe 2 days.
Oh well, Weather is going to do what its going to do
I know you and all of us try and tell IT what’s going to happen..
Notice CB says plenty of winter, but not plenty of snow 😉
Seems cold air one last winter, but warm air is exacting revenge, save for a few cold spurt days that get retaken by warm air.
Meant “won” and not “one”. Rhymes though.
FGACT going be EAST DOUWN AND BOUND folks as u see the CALM across the UNITED STATES last couple days. I can see flooding here next week as the pattern changes and it be a BIG TIME change as BAILEY says, but all it going do is set us on the BUBBAG SPONSOPREED FENCE and we dont like that.
fact is the BUBBA THEORY been spot on for a decade plaus overall.
now can as i say a ACT OF GOD happen or can we be sainted with the 3 miracles why sure.
but i think none of us be betting on that.lol
HUH??????
So Bubba and Rolo, what I’m taking away from your posts is that next week we should have some cold air, but no snow. Is that right?
I know it’s been a frustrating winter for snow lovers, myself included. Just keep in mind that sometimes we have to take baby steps to make changes in our own lives. The weather is no different. We’ve seen smaller changes recently and from the current outlook, those changes are helping to set up a more favorable overall pattern (for snow lovers, of course. Not so much for our warm weather friends). Patience, folks! 🙂
First off, both solutions chris mentioned are very much on the table. If you’re listening to someone say that it won’t be snow and just rain and it’s still a week away, then that information is lacking. We need to wait until Monday or so before our hopes start to die down. Now, I will agree with them in this set up it usually don’t come out well. but sometimes we get the storm to go in our favor!
Bet your snow boots on the brown grass.Because the next major system will be a cold rain follow by some insignificant snow flurries. The only hope is for a clipper system to come out of Canada with a high snow ratio.
This blog has a different feel to it this year and not because of the failing weather patterns. It seems some of the ones that rant and rave have sucessfully quieted Chris down some about his outlook as far as snow. Its really depressing to be honest. Chris, stand your ground buddy! I miss last winter and all of the snow it brought although most were ankle biters. FYI ankle biters are better than nothing lol! Anyway, hope you can elaborate on the snow chances for the next week soon! Thanks for all you do 🙂
This storm system is a pretty good bet of rain by the time the cold air catches up with the real good precip most of the deep moisture will be gone. Will see snow showers/snow squalls/flurries by late Wednesday night and into the day on Thursday no big deal. The pattern is changing will have our warm ups but the cold air will be more frequent than less. It’s going to be more of a yo-yo pattern rises in temps and sharp cold fronts.
Totally agree!
FUNNY 🙂
The latter half of next week will be cold and dry (flurries for Cumberland plateau and SE KY), but I’m still optimistic about the long-term. I’m hearing some other voices on & off this site that are makin’ too big a deal with the -PNA. It doesn’t seem to be going into extreme negative country, which is good news. Slight negative is way better than way negative. I just hope the NAO can catch on soon to what the AO is doing. Bottom line: The ingredients are beginning to come into play better than last month…they just need to get over their timidity, “come together right now over [us]” and hang out for a while.
WHEN?
Sorry, but I dont understand your thoughts? This winter so far the snow has almost been NONE(at least in CKY)..So Chris was “we” have quited Chris down???? So your saying he should have been saying its was so suppossed to have been snowing over the last couple of weeks….I don’t want to hear that its going to be snowing everyday, when its NOT!!!
Agreed. This January will be like 2009 with the ‘yo-yo’ pattern. Wish it would be like 2010 & 2011…but things will be much better next winter if we get a more El Nino like pattern with the cold PDO phase…if I’m off on that, let me know…I guess whatever gets that dadgum NAO negative, right? 😀
What BubbaG / Rolo are saying is that Central Kentucky is always on the fence. Jump off one way into the snow or the other into a puddle.
As Tyler stated,”Both systems are on the table” Low moving up out of the SouthWest and Artic air blowing down from the NorthWest. Depends on which one arrives first. For snow lovers we need the low to hang out down in Texas for a day longer than currently anticipated by the models. That way the cold air, which is coming, will have time to converge on our area. Low moves northeast up the west side of Apps. and all of Kentucky will get slammed with snow. TIME WILL TELL!!! THINKS SNOW!!!
I don’t deny that as that is our general luck. Heavey rain moves through followed by cold and frozen puddles…
Thanks for answering. I’m new at this.
Thanks for answering.
WOW were has the times gone…I remember the days were you watched the weather on one of three channels and you would get your two day forecast and a outlook of a week.
NOW it is the ECMWF, GFS, NAM, NOGAPS, CANDADIAN, NAO, AO, PNA, stratipheric warming, phasing, the weather channel, accuweather, theweatehrcetre, SNOW, LRC, and countless other weather sites trying to figure out what it is going to do for the next two weeks to a month.
Even with all that mumbo jumbo your local forecasters will still provide you with what it is going to do today and tomorrow with a outlook for the week. Just wait the weather will be changing.
First off, I am not giving up hope or trying to be negative,but……….
If the cold moves in first wouldn’t that likely hold the low to far south and any phasing would likely not happen until it was to far east? I guess it comes down to perfect timing, we need the fence JUST to our south.