Good Friday to one and all. A developing winter storm is taking aim at the Ohio Valley this weekend and will impact our weather here in Kentucky. How great of an impact depends on where you live, with northern parts of the state trying to make it two weekends in a row with heavy snow.
Before we get to the Sunday part of the storm… we have some stuff to go through in the shorter term.
A few clouds will roll into town today as temps hit the upper 30s and low 40s. A touch of light rain or a mix will be possible across the west late in the day. That action will increase as it works across the southern half of the state later tonight into Saturday morning.
The NAM is showing rain and snow across the south and southeast tomorrow morning…
Could there be a ribbon of sticking snow for a few spots in the southeast? Hmmm… possible. The rest of the state will see a mix of sun and clouds with temps in the 40s and just a small chance for a shower or two.
The main storm arrives late Saturday night into Sunday. An area of low pressure will track into the state and will bring a lot of moisture with it. The storm will slowly give way to a stronger low to our east and this will allow for much colder air to surge in from the north and west.
After breaking down each model I can get my hand son, here’s the areas most at risk…
Areas to the north of the Ohio River have the highest chance at picking up the most snow. The risk for heavy snow will lessen the farther south we go. Keep in mind… that’s certainly not set in stone as we still have 2 days to go before the storm moves in. The map is just a guide to the areas most at risk from 2 days out.
Regardless of whether or not the heavy snow axis sets up around here… everyone will get in on wraparound snows Sunday night and early Monday. That could put down accumulations for some. Additional rounds of snow showers will be with us for much of next week as the cold continues to be king.
I will have updates later today. Make it a great Friday and take care.
GO Away Wimpy snow!
The latest NAM model has jogged north significantly (as of the time of this comment) about 100 miles north. I think Lex COULD get an inch or two. But north and into Louisville maybe 3″+
I am all in at this point for snow ONLY if it means that after this 7 day period that we get Spring well under way. And that is saying something considering I despise snow
Did I see “a heavy swath of snow” written in that last post?
SWATHMAN LIVES!!!!!! For a short time….like Frosty…sad
I have won $9.00 while losing $2.00 by betting against forecasts this winter….just a hard winter for all meteorologists! Mercifully, it is over.
Need ya update your website clock…probably been told that a million times huh?
Looks like my area (Knox co.) is going to end up with around of inch of snow this year. Depressing to go through an extra month of winter this year and still not get over an inch of snow. Bring spring.
While this cold snap is impressive, there have been some really amazing Spring cold snaps before. Using Lexington data, here are the latest dates to reach certain temps:
0–March 6, 1960
1–March 28, 1947 (with a foot of snow on the ground!)
14–March 31, 1923
15–April 18, 1875 (15 in Mid April!)
26–May 10, 1966
32–May 20, 1894
35–May 27, 1961
39–June 1, 1966
That 32 on May 20, 1894 was with six inches of snow! In Mid to Late May!
and no snow for southern ky yet again 🙁
Same old song and dance of the last 15 years…the folks who got it last week look to get it again. I’m so ready for this pathetic excuse of a winter to be put out of its misery like UK’s season! If a model shows a storm hitting us from a few days out, you can be 100 percent certain it will not. The only way it MIGHT happen is if that model shows the storm hitting middle Tennessee…of course that would be the one time it is right, just so it could miss us! Big snows are a thing of the quickly becoming distant past for CKY…the ‘Dome lives!
Since I never saw a model showing anything really for Richmond I feel confident! Well, more confident than I would if we were in line for a smackdown. The models are terrible for anything other than “tomorrow” and then they are still questionable at that.
In my eight years here, no model that showed more than a dusting more than two days away has ever panned out. The snowfall models are rubbish. I just don’t see how they can be as bad as they are year after year after year and never be corrected. So much data, so little correction…
Reports of a few renegade flakes in far western Kentucky and Tennessee this morning (I have seen no snow here in Nashville so far). The storm confined the heaviest snow to along the Missouri/Arkansas line. A storm spotter measured seven inches in northeastern Arkansas overnight.
Spring is still very much AWOL.
Same old song and dance.
It is what it is. Even with Atlantic blocking the low wants to progress north. I guess this geographical area has turn into snow less desert.
There is still a chance the low has not cross over the Rockies. We will see what the 12z runs have to offer.
I used to say “there’s always next year”, but I’m not really convinced that’s true anymore. Fifteen years of snow drought, that’s half of what the NWS uses to determine the average, is enough to establish the new norm around here…no more than 4-6″ in the absolute best case scenario, which this storm is a FAR cry from for us in CKY. PLEASE, bring on spring, and since no snow is the new normal, I’d just as soon not have winter at all anymore…
I agree. We should talk to China and see if their weather modification chemicals and forced climate change can be applied here. 80’s all year round sounds real nice.
The irony is people far south of us get big snow now. Uncanny for central KY in general- Every place in the state except that area has got at least one big snow event in the past 15 years. The north and south of us quite a few more than one.
north and EAST
I saw a February 6, 2010 analog that has some similar properties with the storm system still developing.
Snowfall amounts were impressive. Around Cincinnati, at least 6″ fell. Indianapolis about 6″.
Here in Louisville and Lexington, less than 1″.
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=SE&fhr=F072&model=GFS212&map=COOP%20SNOW&sort=FINAL
It’s funny when you try to pull down the snow and say “Trends this” or “trends that” for when you want central KY to get snow.
If you suggest the models are trending north, it is somehow instantly a fact, but if you trend it this way, it is hype.
Complete and total hypocrisy. It’s no wonder we can’t get a substantial snow in these parts. But, this is the state of “get what you don’t want” and that must mean more rain, right?
Because anyone who wants snow just doesn’t know what they’re asking for.
Fayette county, you WILL have school on Monday. 😀
Its not hypocrisy, just plain and simple fact. Lexington has not had a single snowfall of greater than 6″ since 1998, and I think only once has it even reached the 6″ mark in that 15 year period. You look at major cities in neighboring states, and every one nearby (including Nashville) has had at least one snowfall greater than 6″, and most have had many multiple such events.
Nothing more than 5 inches in Richmond at any one time in my 8 years here…
look like if ur norh of ky u going get snow.. OHIO RIVER north should see some ok snow for this time year. south that 4GETBOUTIT.
Well, this is one time when I can truthfully say that I hope the snow stays to the north. After a winter of cold but snowless weather, I have thrown in the towel and am now rooting for spring! Can’t say I am surprised with the wacky weather we have had over the past year….but doggone it, I don’t want winter all spring, either! ( I am sure no one else does, either.
Chris, any chance that that wrap around snow could become a “dusting?” 😉 Have a great Friday, everyone! Thanks, Chris, for all you do. I know you are as ready for spring as we are. Oh, and GO HOOPS!!!!
will say this WHEN THE WINTER PATTERN do change and they will there be alot u wishing u go back to last decade of winters.
fact is it will roll back round to HARSH winters and when it does look out. its a cycle, will it be next year or 10 more years?? who knows but it will happen and BE CAREFUL WHAT U WISH FOR!!!
Rolo, all I know is for MANY years not one event has trended south and resulted in big snow. All have gone north or fizzled out with virga/dry slots. That, or they did trend south with ICE.
Not one event that has hit us has actually over-performed to big snow either. How winter events can be so one-sided for a big chunk of the state is almost “conspiratory” in nature. Dare I say it, on purpose…….. Du du du du duuuuuh!
Sigh…I was hoping for some significant accumulation. All we get is ‘wrap-around snow’….that’s like cloud feces.
Winter will likely stay around into April. The -AO will stay negative and will peak. ALL THE AO forecast models show the AO going into a deep negative phase again.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
So several more weeks of cold and rain…
Exactly.
And then the pent-up warm air will clash with the transition of cold air and BOOM. Potential mega-storms.
Central Ky is in a SNOW-DOME……..BAHAHAHAHAHAHA! It is really bad when I live in Keavy and areas throughout Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, Madison County northward, Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, Arkansas has had far more snow than us. Lexington has had more snow in 1 snow-fall than we have had all winter. All I hear about is the poor SNOW-DOME over Central Ky. If you have received more than 1 1/2″ of snow in 1 snow-fall, you have beat our total for the year.
I am so over the snow forecasts and end up getting the cold rain that leads us to flooding and mud. The if SC or SE Ky gets a small dusting, everyone else wants to complain because we got snow and they didn’t. You can have all the dusting of snow you want. I don’t want them. People here in Laurel, Whitley, Knox, Pulaski, McCreary, and Wayne Counties would love to see 1″ in 1 snow-fall. That would be a record.
So, be thankful for the snow you have had this season in Central Ky because it is FAR MORE than us down here.
Well, even for me this is bad, since we usually get the freak spring events. Well, we did up until a decade and a half ago.
Trends are a beach. I would say maybe next winter, but have already done that the last two. Instead of Groundhog Day, we are stuck in Groundhog Winter, except without the comedy.
On a positive note, I would rather have nothing much than the one and two inch snow two winters ago. We had more salt on the ground than snow, so jogging when the wind picked up was a hazardous adventure.
In my part of Madison County we have not had more than 1 inch at any one time. We’ve had less than 3 inches all year.
Which is double or triple of what we have had this season
I am no expert by any means, but the models seems to be spitting out more precipitation on the back side of the low.We could be looking at another ankle biter.
I’m confused – for WEEKS now I’ve been reading “bring on spring” and now a lot are upset that it may not snow?
I know….it’s kinda funny how those attitudes change on a dime. I for one am not at all upset there will be no snow, however, i am totally disgusted with the thought of yet more constant rounds of this miserable cold rain. It quite honestly infuriates me. Nothing we can do about it but doesn’t mean we have to like it…..
Seems mutually inclusive, since the reason for bringing spring was no snow. Seems to be staying on message 🙂
I was wondering if someone could help me with a question… How do you go and look at the models for the snow forecast? Can someone please tell me . thanks Braden
Is there a weather reason why if you look at the national map of warnings – it looks like (based on the warnings) it’s going due east going through Kansas and Missouri to parts of Illinois, then suddenly, it turns and moves northeast. What is causing it to move happily due east and then turn north?
It looks the jet stream currents turn further north around western ky, so more warm air drawn up our way as usual!
no update on this site?