Good evening everyone. Milder air is ready to sweep into the bluegrass state over the next few days, but it does not have staying power. All of this is leading us toward a pattern that’s ripe for a series of arctic attacks on our region and much of the country.
Temps will soar well into the 40s to near 50 Thursday and into the 50s for Friday. A cold front moves in Saturday with colder air and a few showers. There could even be a few flakes trying to fly into Sunday and Monday.This is a seasonal shot of chill and nothing special, but does go to show how this new pattern won’t allow the mild to run wild.
Temps will rebound early next week as a big storm ejects out of the southwest later Tuesday and Wednesday. This should move right over us Wednesday with rain that’s followed by a BIG change. Arctic air will charge in behind this storm for the end of next week. All the models are locking in on this next blast.
The European Model nailed this week’s arctic air and is all over next week’s shot…
THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY
Again… it’s not a case of the European Model against the rest of the models as they have all honed in on this blast. We will tackle the snow chances this setup will throw at us as we get closer.
It’s all part of a pattern that is threatening to go into the arctic tank. The following week is when the models grow even wilder with the arctic cold and snow possibilities. One of the analog years showing up on the GFS Ensembles for the middle of the month is January, 1994. Doesn’t mean it will turn out that way… but the model is sure trying to get our attention.
Have a great evening and take care.
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good to see the cold take hold, but I am much more interested in the snow chances to come. A nice storm to track and one that actually pans out would certainly lighten the mood on the log!:)
Oooooohhhh! That’s so exciting. Sure hope it pans out. January 94 gave us an awesome winter storm. I would love to re-create that one!!!!
Maybe the blog will get back in the mode similar to last year. I think CB is the best, but this blog has turned into a cheerleading site with no real weather discussion. Anyone that reads the current maps differently than what CB may have posted 12 hours earlier is blasted. CB does a great job with what he does, but the blog is lacking some of the up to the minute comments from people experienced in reading the maps. Why some of these people have left I do not know. Hopefully they were not ran off by negative comments just because the may have disagreed with a forecast.
Geeez. January, 1994? Please say it ain’t so! 16 inches of snow? Minus 20 degrees? Burst pipes? No thanks.
oops…might help the mood on the blog also.
No significant systems so far to really do any map reading for.
OH, Yeah! Me, too! Jan. 17, 1994. We had just shy of 2 feet of beautiful snow here in Mason Co. Snow-covered vehicles looked like ginormous snow balls. Gimme another one of those ( minus the -25 degrees below zero temps that followed. )
Well do not be shy! What are your thoughts on next weeks snow chance. All the models are in near agreement about the cold snap.
Will the snow come along for the ride or will we receive the usual dusting.
OH, Yeah! Me, too! Jan. 17, 1994. We had just shy of 2 feet of beautiful snow here in Mason Co. Snow-covered vehicles looked like ginormous snow balls. Gimme another one of those ( minus the -25 degrees below zero temps that followed. )
Ooops! Sorry about the double post!
lol- I’m not one of the map readers. I just enjoyed checking the blog more often when there was frequent discussion on what the latest maps where showing. Even with the last little system, I just didn’t see the constant map updates like in the past. Before you could always count on numerous people posting as soon as every run of the maps happened. The board imo has just turned negative for any opinions outside of CB’s thoughts. Like I said earlier I put my money on CB any day, but he doesn’t have time to update constantly. I think some on here make it where people don’t want to give opinions because of the negatively associated with any disagreement with CB.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F04%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=168&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F04%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=189&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
That is the latest GFS for the Middle of next week, as you can see a storm comes through and then the cold air catches the back end and turns it to light snow, Thats it for now, and that is only one model run
I am sorry if I came off like a smart ass! But the models have been extremely terrible this winter. That is probably why many people have given up at looking at a model that has no credibility.
I’ll tell you all what….after reading Brian Goode’s blog (Snow Talk) and this blog, I am one excited teacher! A few small breaks heading into the middle and end of January sounds great to me!!
The models suggest what always happens, the closer you get to central KY:
Most of the moisture will be around when 33 degrees or warmer and the tail end (less than 20%) will be a mix and then snow. Uncanny, but the models suggest it and the results (trends) fit it.
They may waffle and look better, but the result will be a small portion of the system with frozen stuff.
I have yet to see anything this winter to suggest this “rinse and repeat” will change.
CB is just posting his thoughts, but a lot of things would have to come together for such an event. For a big chunk of the state, it has been a VERY long time since we rock n rolled.
If nothing else the blow torch talk for all of January has been blown out, This winter still has lots of promise for snow lovers in KY.
Oh, and notice I said the blog and not the comments. I’m learning to skip over what I consider negative comments by people who THINK they know how to read maps as good as CB can. Please…
Bring it! 😀 Thanks, Chris. I liked the fact that we actually had winter last year, and spring, and summer and autumn. So, lets have winter!
Love your optimism Todd!
(Mad Scientist) Interesssssting!
Not trying to be negative here, but keep in mind that this is OVER a WEEK away. Also, there doesnt seem to be a storm CB is very concerned about, but hopefully im wrong. Hopefully these models turn in our favor!!!
Wow more sauce for goose, I don’t know if anything analog should be mentioned again after all the talk since September.
The only analog that probably should be believed is …….this sounds like an analog of Sept/Oct 20!! ……this is a strong comparison to what was being blabed some 4 months ago and look what we got. I will believe it when I see it otherwise it’s all poppycock and hype. Let’s get on with the game……blue 34, right,right, right….red 13 ready!!!!!!!!…….hype 1, hype 2, ……..hype 3!!!!!!
I am eating tomato soup in my underwear and reading weather blogs at 10:30 PM hoping to find a shred of optimism about a forthcoming blizzard. Is there something wrong with me? By the way, I’m also enjoying a Keystone Light.
In Louisville NWS discussion today:
…A CHANGE COMING???…
The past several runs have been hinting at a phasing of the northern
and southern streams sometime after Wednesday. Depending on
If/When/Where this occurs, a significant storm system could develop
with a chance at wintery precipitation and bitterly cold
temperatures for the area. Both GFS/GFS Ensemble/ECMWF show a
significant cold air outbreak into the eastern CONUS late next week
into the weekend behind this system. The model solutions have
support from the NAO/AO ensemble forecasts that hint at a trend
toward negative over the next 7-10+ days. Stay Tuned.
😀
Good BEER! Keystone is made in Colorado! Good SNOW VIBE :)!
Good BEER! Keystone is made in Colorado! Good SNOW VIBE :)!
Double Post! 2 Keystones 🙂
You can never go wrong with Stones my friend 🙂
Thank God my rent payments cover the gas and electric bills, plus water.