Good Thursday everyone. Our temps are set to mild up over the next few days and many of you will be saying ‘here we go again’. While we will be warmer than normal… there is a ton of winter ahead of us and a week from now looks to be the beginning of the fun and games pattern.
Milder air will surge into the region today as our temps hit the mid and upper 40s east to low and mid 50s west. Everyone will hit the 50s on Friday under partly sunny skies. Our winds are going to crank up over the next few days and that may keep it from feeling like the temp says.
A cold front drops in on Saturday with an increase in clouds and a decrease in temps. Readings will come back down into 40s for highs and there could be a few showers on the move. There still looks to be a wave of low pressure trying to develop along the boundary that checks up across the Tennessee Valley on Sunday. This may throw some moisture our way and the GFS Ensembles are hinting at this…
Seasonal temps in the upper 30s and low 40s will be with us to end the weekend.
It’s at this point we begin to watch a storm developing across Texas. This is likely to spawn from a cutoff area of low pressure that sits around for a few days waiting for a trough to swing in and pick it up. That happens later Tuesday and Wednesday as this storm rides right on top of us with heavy rain a possibility. The trough picking up this system has a seriouus shot of arctic cold diving into it and would imply a switch to snow to be followed by wraparound snow showers and squalls for a few days to go along with the coldest temps of the winter.
I really like what the Canadian Model is doing…
Wednesday Morning
Thursday Morning
Thursday Evening
We’ll have to keep an eye on the possibility of this storm cutting off across the Great Lakes or Ohio Valley. Regardless… this is a heck of a trough the models are showing. Check out the 500mb Height Anomalies from the GFS Ensembles…
It’s a pattern that may feature an arctic blitz for the rest of the month with the potential for widespread cold engulfing much of the country. Stay tuned.
I will throw another update your way later today. Have a great Thursday and take care.
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Thanks Chris!
In regards to comments on the last post, I too find myself skipping over “some” of the comments after the first sentence.
It’s almost like you can’t win. If snow & arctic air potential & analogs are mentioned……It’s hype hype hype.
If a dusting is mentioned & nothing is hyped & something does happen, then you’re too conservative.
🙁
Two things:
1. As far as winter, we have really nowhere to go but up- assuming no ice.
2. All the Keystone references… that stuff has a funky bite to it. I think the lining of the cans has warped some brains 😉
He is just posting his thoughts as a met. If folks get uptight about CB’s thoughts not panning out, they may need to just wait for the actual forecast posts where he makes a call.
The weather just is what it is, but seems to be stuck in a funky trend so far that only snow haters would love.
I think we can all agree at this point next week…it’s going to be BRRRRRR cold! Not anything historic…but double-digit temperature anomalies on the negative side. The 6z GFS indiciates the cold spell will last maybe 1-2 days longer than this most recent cold snap…eventually temps moderate to seasonable norms…thus, the roller coaster ride continues! Snow squalls are great…but hopefully we can get a more widespread event, with a low track containing enough tilt to integrate faster moving colder air to aid the transition from rain to snow. Time will tell…
I wish I understood the graphs and charts. Is there any place on the web that gives a tutorial on how to interpret those GFS things? lol
oh come on …. everybody is looking at a storm that is setting on the ocean right now off texas ….. by the time it gets near ky i might be a few sprinkles and the cold snap that is going to happen will just that — sunny weather with cold temps. and with the gulf stream this winter, it may change before then.
But then again… it might not.
Sounds intriguing!
When weather comes out of Tx this time of year it could be a dilly of a storm.Maybe the snow lovers like me will get their wish. Fingers crossed.
We will get dumped on…Eventually. Too many people wanting a big snow!!!
never had a hangover like the morning after a party with keystone on tap, will never touch it again! That was 15 years ago!
So lots of people wanting big snow = it will happen? I wish that’s the way it worked
It seems the past few low’s out of the Texas area have hung out a few days longer than the models have predicted this far out. Hopefully this one hangs down there until Late Wed Early Thursday and we can get the cold air in here before it makes its move. Hopefully the surge of cold air does not keep this surpressed to the south of us and Tenn/Ga. gets the big one again. Time will tell. THINK SNOW!!!
Time for Brian’s Annual Reminder of What This Blog is All About:
Chris uses the blog to go into more depth and speculation than he would dare do on TV.
He does so under the assumption that most of his readers here are seasoned weather observers who realize that these models can be a bit nutty, and that their reliability several days out is mostly in the big picture, not in specific things. Precip amounts will vary, temps will vary, and with that, precip types will vary.
Remember that nobody notices if he says the high will be 84 and it turns out to be 86, but if he calls for 31 and it ends up 33, that makes a big difference.
I’m predicting some real winter weather the 14th through the 21st. I have to drive my daughter to some out of town athletic events those weekends so figure the snow will either hit while I’m gone, or even worse, I’m going to get stuck trying to drive in it, sigh.
Why,they are always wrong in the winter.
I’m just trying to use reverse psychology on the weather…lol
I want snow…no ice…
Again, the good news is that barring an ice event, we have nowhere to go but up 🙂
12z GFS run gets even more aggressive with cold and snow here next weekend. Interesting..
guess i’ll start doing my sun dance again about next Thursday … maybe the weather will stay warm and not one flake will fall and the good ole warm sun will stay out!!!!!!!!!!!!! Think spring, think spring, think spring
Yeah but I would like to understand what everyone is talking about. You never get a clear meaning on what anyone is saying unless Chris just plain says “It’s gonna snow.”
I see your sun dance and raise you with a moon AND snow dance. I figure this way you’ll be cancelled out for sure. lol
Isn’t that always the way it works? lol
I’ve restrained myself from commenting to your post for a couple of weeks now, but I can’t restrain any longer. I know it’s a blog and people can say what they want, but why do you purposely come on here and say things trying to provoke them into a blog battle with you? Why not keep your post to yourself? You know 99% of the people on here want snow, so why post your BS on here? Come on here get the info you need, check it as much as you want, read the comments but hold your spring and summer comments until then.
It is not as aggressive with the cold next weekend compared to previous runs. In fact, the cold air is delayed a bit by 18-24 hours in the 05/12Z run compared the 00Z run. The model is a little wetter for the weekend, but the models are going to struggle with the series of clippers rotating through.
On a side note, I dug up the Jan 1994 hemispheric maps to compare this upcoming cool down to Jan 1994. In a very general sense, the pattern over North America is similar, but it is not as amplified as Jan 1994. If you compare it to the hemispheric scale, its not a match at all. The pattern over the Pacific and Europe is much different in the current model runs than what occurred in January 1994.
So this I now a winter weather blog?? I don’t like winter either. You don’t see me or anyone else yelling telling winter lovers to keep their snow talk to themselves during summer….respect everyone’s opinion…even if you don’t agree. I agree with heat miser. I’m ready for spring sports.
hell man what is your problem — i don’t come on here trying to start or provoke anyone — I don’t like snow period and i comment on it; i don’t need jerkoffs like you attacking me for it ….. i will type what i want, when i want and don’t need any ahole like you telling me otherwise. so back to reading your spiderman comic books and eating your captain crunch boy !!!!
Emerson … your comment was uncalled for and too harsh for this blog … everyone isn’t snow lovers and everyone can have his/her opinion. CB has a lot of patience with us but if comments attacking others like yours, he will have no choice but to start banning people and I hate to see that happen because I really enjoy reading the blog.
I am always a reader but never a commentor, but Emerson really pulled my strings. If Heatmiser was trying to provoke people, then you really fell for it, hook line and sinker. I took it as joking, just as Bob did and i’m sure others did too …. lighten up man … sounds like you fell out of bed this morning.
all i can say is s c r e w you emerson tiny johnson … you have some nerve telling people when they can post comments on here .. sounds like you provoked him/her … so take your BS elsewhere.
This is a WEATHER Blog…not just a snow blog. I love snow as much as anyone but I love sunshine also. I’ve read a bunch of posts that I didn’t like, but that’s their opinion and right to say it. IF Chris doesn’t like it, it’s his house, he can clean it up as he sees fit. We are just guests here to Mr. Bailey’s weather blog. So let’s act like it.
Like.
Brian Goode?
people like u is what gives this blog a bad name to new comers. enough said.
That is what they call the 7 day rule. Rarely if ever do we see a prediction that far out come to fruition. Yet the models are still looked at like the gospel.
It that was the way a it worked we would not be able to dig out until early April.
Where’s the love? 🙂
Emerson tiny johnson is full of himself!!!!!
The 850 charts on the 12z run are equal to or colder than the same charts on the 06z run a around 190 hours. And as we both noted, the 12z run is snowier. That’s all I meant. 7 days out, nothing is in stone but it is an encouraging sign to see that sharp temp gradient looming across the northern U.S.
I’ve been reading this blog for several years and the comments get worse each year. Society has lost its sense of graciousness.
In this blog, it correlates with snow results 😉
Again, it correlates with snow results and is a cumulative thing 😉
Kind of like Clark Griswald when he thinks he is not getting his Christmas bonus and gets all entitlement whiney and hateful. He then gets his bonus and is right with the world and full of love. 🙂
Exchange bonus with snow. Now, where is my chainsaw and hockey mask?
well let me be the first to be an adult and apologize to anyone I have offended or come across as trying to provoke an argument … that was never my intentions. I just comment on warm sunny days and my disliking of snow and cold weather.
From what it sounds like, winter has long way to go before spring even thinks of making a true appearance, with it’s severe weather. For all we now it might snow into april…
nice to see someone step up, but honestly you don’t have anything to be sorry for, i thought your comments were funny and different .. sometimes the whole model and map lingo gets boring and was glad to see someone add a little spice to the blog. I am like you and totally hate winters but love the smell and sounds of spring, hopefully it is not far away 🙂
Well, I’m “good” but not “Goode”! Just a longtime reader of the blog, hoping to remind people that nothing is set in stone when it’s eight or nine days away.
This is a weather blog. All types of weather can be discussed. Rain, snow, sleet, wind, hail, sunshine…it’s all included. If you are like me I post the most during winter. That doesn’t mean I don’t like sunshine. I just like to see it snow. I love how pretty it is and the kids like to play in it. Some people don’t like it and I understand that. This is Chris Bailey’s site and he allows us to read his weather thoughts and forecasts. We need to be respectful of that fact so we can continue to enjoying it.
well I’m a snow lover, always have been since a small kid; I love reading the hype of an incoming snowstorm and hear the excitement in people’s comments — but on the flip side I never took your comments as trying to start anything, so I wouldn’t let anyone keep you from posting your own opinions Have a good one and enjoy your couple of days of warm weather because it is coming to an end next week.
Oh, I understood where you were coming from. We’re on the same page.
Heatmiser better buy some gloves & snow shovels, that sweat on your body might FREEZE next week 🙂
I think your comments are fun! Keep them up they give a little spice to the blog in between snow systems.
some of u may not like HENRY at ACCUWEATHER
but his thinking is spot on and i think fits CB thinking, go check out his map etc at u see us setting on the FENNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNCEEEEEEEEEEEE. as the pattern changes more of ice MIX than a pure snow newxt month or so. as ky is right in the MIDDLE of air masses.
ROLO a agrees S KY rain ending as snow as north I 64 mix/ice and all snow poosible.
It will be fun to watch how the models duke it out as to whether or not the phasing will occur.
The upper air patterns for figuring this thing out is still a little too far away so that the models can begin realistically calculating how this system will unfold.
Give it a couple of days. Otherwise, it’s just pure speculation. One thing for sure, all models do suggest cold air will be arriving Thr/Fri time period.
Hey Rolo I took it as Tennessee as being the fence sitters. maybe I looked at it wrong.
This is why we need to have this low hang out down around Texas for a day or two longer than expected.
THINK SNOW!!!
More people have been posting the last few days so either something is going to happen or everyone is exceptionally board. Chris, when you referred to 94 yesterday, was that only in reference to what happened in the latter part of Jan? I was thinking that the first part of that winter was nothing like the first part of this winter but I can’t remember for sure.
That has to be the case for most of KY. If CB mentions the word “fence” in the context of Kentucky, forget it, since has been a mainly mix event, every time.