Good Saturday evening gang. Our Winter Storm THREAT continues and there is a good chance that’s upgraded later tonight for some areas. The winter storm will push into the state early Sunday and will then slowly work across the region. That will set up a heavy swath of snow across the north and that snow line will slowly sink southward into Sunday night.
Wraparound snows for Monday into Tuesday look to be pretty robust for most of the state. I have put together two first call maps. The first is for Sunday into Sunday night with the actual storm. The other is for the wraparound action from Monday into Tuesday…
Those are the first call and I will update those later tonight into Sunday and put out a final call. Those lines and numbers will likely change as this storm comes into better focus. The highest bust potential on the first map is for areas near Interstate 64 as this region will be über close to the rain verses snow line for much of Sunday afternoon and evening.
I’m more confident of the Monday-Tuesday numbers than I am with the stuff for Sunday and Sunday night. There’s a chance I’m on the low side with the wraparound snows.
Please keep in mind, this is late March and some melting will come into play. You can’t add all the numbers up and expect that much to be on the ground at any one time.
Regardless… snow days will likely come into play Monday and Tuesday.
An updated call on snowfall later tonight. Take care.
I 64 highest bust potential. Imagine that.
Just my opinion but i see more inches of rain than inches of snow for my area
Go Cards! A good win today.
Well, if it’s going to snow I wish it would come a big one! Let that be the last one for now and bring on Spring! Thank you for all your hard work Chris!
Those totals don’t show a shift to the south. It appears most are not buying the shift
His earlier map had Anderson,Wooford and Fayette in the moderate zone for 4+ inches. Now we are looking at 1-2. It either shifted south and went back or never shifted at all.
The whole season has been a bust. Another under dramatic teaser. Actually I do not care what it does anymore.
Storm threat for some areas?? We know where that is, northern most KY!
The fact we are even talking about “wrap-around” snows in Late March tells you this is an unusual pattern. March is going to wind up 3-4 degrees colder than December was, at least, in Lexington. I wonder how many times March has been colder than December? Probably not often! And maybe never by 3-4 degrees.
If you look at the weather since July 1, it has actually averaged out below normal with near normal snowfall. We had one of the ten coldest autumn’s on record, followed by a very mild winter, and now we are well on our way to one of the 10 coldest springs. If this blocking pattern had set up from, say, Dec-Feb, instead of Sep-Nov and now March and April, we would have had an epic winter. Oh well. Bring on Spring!
Neat info Mr. Mercer!
And, thanks Chris.
Near normal snowfall — yep, 3 inches for Richmond…
Hasn’t that been about your normal amount there for the past ten years? I think we know where the fence is!
Officially, the average for Lexington is 13.0 for a season. I think there has been 11 or so this year–so if Chris’ forecast verifies, than this winter season will actually be snowier than normal, as hard as it is to believe!
But not everybody lives in Lex 🙁
Or south east KY
Agree with Chris that the NWS in Wilmington should just make a call and run with it. We know we’re going to get snow, and a fair bit of it. Might as well put out the Winter Storm Warning and then adjust things as time goes on as they normally do.
Of course, the more selective readers will gloss over CB noting the warm ground will offset the snow totals for a lot of areas 😉 I do not know if CB accounts for the warm ground offset in his forecast. If not, perhaps reduce the map by about 25% from I64 on down and then to about 50% at the KY river and to about 75% after that- in regards to snow actually on the ground. T
Seems the best bet for a lot of areas is the wrap around, since should have a colder surface at that point.
Nice ring around the moon tonight. Snow on the way. To cards great win
The ground in Lex has been frozen recently. And as late as Thursday I believe. Other than today’s temps it shouldn’t be to big if a deal.