Good Wednesday, everyone. We are closing out the month of January on a rather down note, but better days are ahead as we roll into February. Milder weather is on the way with temps above normal for the first week and change of the new month, but a change to winter is still on the way shortly thereafter.
Before we get into the weather portion of the program, there’s a “Best Of” competition floatin around out there that some of the other stations are actively promoting. WKYT is not, but if you guys would like to vote for your friendly weatherdude, far be it from me to stop you.
A vote for me is a vote for progress in this wicked world of weather and I promise to deliver everything from snow and cold to sunny and warm to thunderstorms. If elected, the weather world is yours!!!
VOTE HERE: Smiley Pete’s Best of Lex
I’m honestly just having fun with this and don’t really care that much.
Our weather out there today features low clouds and some passing flakes or a bit of light shower action, especially early and mainly in the east. Not much will show up on your radars, but the regional radars are here to keep you company…
Milder winds kick in for Thursday with a mix of sun and clouds. Most areas reach the 50s.
I’m watching a backdoor cold front dropping in from the northeast Thursday night and Friday. This may bring a shower into the state, but it may also knock the numbers down just a bit for some areas, especially in the north and east.
Check out the swing in temps on Friday afternoon…
The milder air really surges in for Saturday with low and mid 50s north and east and low 60s west…
A southern storm system then rolls from west to east and may throw some rain into our region later Sunday and Monday. The Canadian has been most consistent with this signal…
Temps behind this system are still mild into much of next week and you better enjoy it while you can because things change just after that.
A big time winter pattern then takes control of the pattern for much of the country during week two of the month and looks to continue through early March.
The progression of this upcoming pattern is something to behold and it’s amazing how the various ensembles are now matching up with what the EURO Weeklies and GFS Extended have been showing for some time now.
Let’s use the Canadian Ensembles to show all this.
The current setup for the rest of the week features a MONSTER ridge across the northern plains and into much of Canada…
That’s bringing temps of 50 degrees above normal to parts of Canada. You read that correctly… 50 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!
This ridge is slow to get displaced because it’s the biggest, baddest boy on the block right now. Over the next week, this slowly moves toward the northeastern part of the country and into southeastern Canada as a trough develops in the western part of the country…
Historic warmth will continue across Canada during that time, with record warmth possible in the northern part of the US.
This same ridge continues to get displaced farther north a few days later. At the same time, the trough in the west slowly migrates into the plains states with ridging replacing it along the west coast of North America…
This leads us into an episode of severe blocking from Greenland (-NAO) through the North Pole (-A0) with a massive ridge up the west coast of North America (+PNA). That leads to a monster trough across the eastern half of the country…
The GFS Ensembles look almost identical at the same timeframe…
As you can see, the same ridge of high pressure bringing historic warmth to Canada over the next week is the same ridge that leads the eastern half of the United States into a harsh winter pattern for the middle and end of February.
What kind of pattern does that lead to? One that can turn bitterly cold in the eastern US…
The weather in motion is a thing of beauty and I love the challenge of putting all the pieces of the weather puzzle together, or, at least, trying to.
A post like this has got to be worth a vote or two. Right?
I’ll stop by with another update or two later today. Until then, make it a great day and take care.
CB is best weatherman, hands down! I voted for him!
ME TOO !!!
Thanks Chris. WOW ! that is some high pressure ridge going up in the center of the country. This is something that I haven’t seen before in all the years of studying meteorology. It looks unnatural ? It’s really going to be interesting how this weather pattern turns out next month. Strangest El Nino winter I have ever seen. I’ve been saying since last fall ” you can’t have full impacts from El Nino if the PDO is in the negative phase. “
Hey Chris, I prefer accuracy over fantasy…
Out through the second week of February the pattern – as expected – will remain quite WARMER than normal for most in the Eastern/Central US.
BAM!
DASH, your far of been accuracy!! SO DON”T GO THERE!!
You are nothing more than a liar.
Everybody Lies.
I say it’s Bill Meck in hiding lol
Those are not fantasy forecast Dash. Meteorologist don’t work in fantasy. They are based on fact.
Bill Meck, go somewhere else! No one cares WHAT YOU PREFER!
It appears that the transition from El Niño to ENSO- Neutral has started, based on the moderating anomalous readings off the west coast of South America, on the latest SSTA chart. Another change is the moderation of temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska, where over the past three years a large pool of warmer than normal water has influenced the movement of the Polar Jet, increasing the rate of cool to warm to cool temperature swings in our region. It also appears that our steadily warming global atmosphere has changed the expected effects of an El Niño on our region. We’re dealing with a new normal that forces us to expect the unexpected, more and more.
Latest SSTA chart:
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
You are right on Joe about the new normal.
Great information Joe. I agree entirely with that scenario. La Nina will appear just in time for next
fall and winter is NOAA’s latest forecast.
So does that mean another warm winter or warmer???
Crystal, despite those warmer than normal temps in Canada, the absence of sunshine for 5-6 months means that a lot of cold air continues to pile up at the poles, so when a cold air mass pushes south, .we definitely feel it. On the other hand, the atmosphere continues to absorb more heat globally, and because that warmer air triggers an increase in evaporation. Warmer air can hold more moisture, so there’s a tendency for that air to become more unstable. The clash between warmer and more humid than normal air masses, and cold air from the poles is why some storm systems tend to be more energetic, and the pressure difference between clashing air masses is why we’ve experienced more high wind events.
I’m concerned that the uptick in moisture content and instability could amp up our severe weather season. The fact that our April/May severe weather season will take place at the same time that we will be transitioning from an El Niño to ENSO Neutral is also concerning, since there is evidence that that type of scenario could result in above normal severe activity, which is the last thing we want to see!
Crystal, despite those warmer than normal temps in Canada, the absence of sunshine for 5-6 months means that a lot of cold air continues to pile up at the poles, so when a cold air mass pushes south, .we definitely feel it. On the other hand, the atmosphere continues to absorb more heat globally, and because that warmer air triggers an increase in evaporation. Warmer air can hold more moisture, so there’s a tendency for that air to become more unstable. The clash between warmer and more humid than normal air masses, and cold air from the poles is why some storm systems tend to be more energetic, and the pressure difference between clashing air masses is why we’ve experienced more high wind events.
I’m concerned that the uptick in moisture content and instability could amp up our severe weather season. The fact that our April/May severe weather season will take place at the same time that we will be transitioning from an El Niño to ENSO Neutral is also concerning, since there is evidence that that type of scenario could result in above normal severe activity, which is the last thing we want to see!
Here’s NOAA’s probability forecast for temperatures and precipitation the next three months. (FMA)
Equal chances means they don’t know 🙂
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
Crystal, despite those warmer than normal temps in Canada, the absence of sunshine for 5-6 months means that a lot of cold air continues to pile up at the poles, so when a cold air mass pushes south, .we definitely feel it. On the other hand, the atmosphere continues to absorb more heat globally, and because that warmer air triggers an increase in evaporation. Warmer air can hold more moisture, so there’s a tendency for that air to become more unstable. The clash between warmer and more humid than normal air masses, and cold air from the poles is why some storm systems tend to be more energetic, and the pressure difference between clashing air masses is why we’ve experienced more high wind events.
Crystal, despite those warmer than normal temps in Canada, the absence of sunshine for 5-6 months means that a lot of cold air continues to pile up at the poles, so when a cold air mass pushes south, .we definitely feel it. On the other hand, the atmosphere continues to absorb more heat globally, and because that warmer air triggers an increase in evaporation. Warmer air can hold more moisture, so there’s a tendency for that air to become more unstable. The clash between warmer and more humid than normal air masses, and cold air from the poles is why some storm systems tend to be more energetic, and the pressure difference between clashing air masses is why we’ve experienced more high wind events.
Crystal, any phase of ENSO can produce mild winters or cold winters. All depends on what phase the PDO is in. This winter we have an El Nino with a negative PDO. Which resulted in a split flow in our atmosphere and only one week of winter weather.