Good Friday everyone. Our big holiday weekend is kicking off on a mild and windy note across Kentucky today as our eyes turn toward a blast of winter to start 2012. This will mark a nice change from the boring stuff we’ve had through December.
Today features a potent, fast moving system working into the Ohio Valley. This bad boy will cause our winds to really increase and should also spawn some showers. Highs today will hit the 50-55 degree range.
Let’s track the showers…
Those scattered showers will linger into very early Saturday morning as some cooler air moves in. Temps MAY get just cold enough for a wet flake in the mountains early in the day. This scoots on out of here quickly during the afternoon and this will set the stage for a calm New Year’s Eve. Temps will be cooler than today with highs in the mid 40s and readings in the 30s as we say hi to 2012.
That brings us to New Year’s Day and the big change blowing into town. This is when an arctic front crashes through the region with gusty winds, a few showers and falling temps. Readings will start in the 40s and fall into the 30s by the end of the day with a few snow showers taking over.
The cold air will then really kick in Sunday night through Tuesday as a deep trough engulfs the eastern half of the country. Highs in the 20s look good for Monday and Tuesday with lows dipping into the low and mid teens by Tuesday morning. Winds are also going to be VERY gusty and this may create wind chills nearing 0 at times. BRRR!
What about the snow? This is the type of setup that produces snow showers and squalls and that’s likely to be amplified by the totally unfrozen and warmer than normal Great Lakes. This cold air pouring over the lakes will pick up more moisture than normal and that means areas downstream will see the white stuff kicking up.
Here’s the GFS showing the increase in snow…
Look for the GFS to really start picking up on the snow shower and squall threat as we get closer. The GFS Ensembles seem to have a decent handle on the moisture…
Don’t be surprised to see snow flurries flying all the way into northern Georgia with this type a setup.
I am also keeping an eye out on a clipper for Wednesday into Thursday. The Canadian Model is the most robust with this…
I will have another update for all you snow and cold starved winter lovers later today. Have a great Friday and take care.
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Finally!! Some snow….
Chris, when will the new site be up and running?
It seems hard to believe that east TN/KY would go snowless next week. I was watching the news and there was a special on how warm the Great Lakes are at this time. And snow squalls/showers could generate and most models don’t pick up on that stuff this far out.
I hope it OVER produces. Upslope snow…lake effect snow…bring it!! LOL
well rolo here with a SNOW UPFDATE i see
as chris says lakes are open and first upslope of year is come, i can see 2-4 inches of snow by wed morning in SE AND EAST KY!!!
song of day
welcome to the jungle by GnR be interesting if AXLE will show up with all original memmebers at the HALL OF FAME IDUCTCION
Sorry so negative, but the cold I believe. Chance for snow, not so much. Believe that when I see it.
Dang, the attrition here due to wimpy results may have taken a toll so far on posts here. CB posted this in the early hours and only six posts counting this, so far.
In the olden optimistic days, there would be fifty by now.
i think e ky could see a decent snow from the lafe effect maybe several inches
btw the MEGA storm for the weekend is RAIN now
I’m soooo happy to finally see some snow in the forecast. This has been such a crappy winter…
Another season of near misses and what ifs. If every locality in the state reach their normal or average snowfall I will be shock.
Good grief! Too many complainers on this site! Winter is only 1.5 weeks old people. Goodness…it looks like I’ll have to be praying for snow more than ever now…if that means this blog gets a better dose of maturity from its writers.
Bubba you are right, no posts because of the so called bad winter so far. I look at it this way. Each season, something crazy happens, ie floods, tornados, snow, etc. We just need to wait…but its hard!
flow is to westerly for lake effect and upslope snows early next week. Perhaps some flurries for the bluegrass and eastern KY. I still expect Lexington to make it halfway through meteorological winter (JAN 15th)without a measureable snow. Overall temperatures should still be at to above normal in JAN since the cold snap is very quick in and out by the end of next week a blowtorch resumes. Some chill afterwards though should set-up in the northern plains around mid-month. The ananlog year of 1971-72 does offer hope though Feb may be better though usually FEB and MAR in la-ninas are very warm. As of now Lexington still has a good chance to beat the 1931-32 lack of snow mark of 2.1 inches of snow in a season.
chris seems to disagree. he says there should be some pretty good snow showers and squalls
I agree for when the trajectory becomes favorable and temps dive into the teens to fluff up the ratios esp. EKY ETN WNC WVA and the snowshoe area are going to all get accumulating snows. Lexington has done ok in this scenario before too December 17 2003 2.8” of snow at my backyard all thanks to lake effect.
Count me as very disappointed. Cold without snow is like kissing your cousin. It feels good but you know it’s wrong!
Seriously, I think most of us are extra depressed because of the predictions I read in the fall about a snowy winter. Chris (I love ya man but…) didn’t help when he played up the “coming snow and cold” for late Nov and early Dec during the fall. The analogs, crystal balls and whatever almanac you like have all failed us!
And nothing is more depressing in the winter than a big dry cold spell quickly followed by temps in the 40s and rain! Ugh!
its a question of wind direction this time more than temps or surface low tracks
81 days until the first day of Spring!
Key though CB is thinking it, but not yet forecasting it 😉
Not so fast I like to see what the models do with a possible clipper system on the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame. It does show a couple of vort maxes moving through which usually leads to a period of some light snow something worth watching. The warming trend will not last long besides we really need some moderation of temps to get a storm to form. If you look at the long term Euro it shows snowcover including the Ohio Valley for a good chunk of the nation by Jan 22nd mind you its not a forecast but it is at least showing the snow.
I am with Mitch thinking this could be the lowest of lows (or close to it) for especially central KY. We may not match or beat the 70/71 winter, but seems we could get close.
I will take no snow ANY day over little bitty snows and ice events, since both are very annoying and very dangerous.
So we can rule out the lafe effect snows too?
Either this is Brian Goode from Wave3 or someone who just likes to rip him off…
It is what it is. Fact is, only Mother Nature knows what the winter holds. I’m a faithful reader but it all boils down to her.
Hooray! 🙂
Dee said the word ‘boil’. I guess that means it’s going to be too warm for snow…Just kidding…I just thought it was funny word choice.
TWC is doing a story today on the lack of snowfall nationwide and the economic impact it’s having for a lot of businesses. 🙂 I still say we’ve got 3 to 4 months of Winter to go and this ballgame has just now tipped off. People are stressing too early in the game.
Yeah, we all know a good two-week cold snap with 3-4 good shots at significant (4+”) snows would snap us out of this depression BUT I’m not hearing anyone suggesting this will happen given the current setup. We’ve had some snowy Februaries but most had some decent cold and snow chances in December and January in front of them. Nada this season!
I still say somebody will get over a foot of snow and more…With all the cut off lows we have had this year one is sure to come again and cold air will be waiting this time..I think Memphis got the first snow so i will say Western Ky is the Favorite spot this year to get a monster storm..
🙂
As long as you do not mention fairy takes like Central Ky, since I would have to call you crazy 😉
Christmas decorations down…check
Yard cleaned up….check
ready for spring…NOT!…lol..
its hard to believe its almost jan. 1st and I have petunia’s trying to bloom, and my daylillies are coming up, with the tulips,and daffodills..!..might as well get the lawn mower ready..lol..lol..
Its going to happen sometimes BubbaG…Its just gotta..I aint getting any younger so if the big one ever happens it better be quick…
Just watched Chris on WSAZ and he says that the widespread snow shower and squalls will likely put down an accumulation across much of the area!!
Well as warm and wet as it has been it will take several inches of snow for me to even tell if it’s accumulating . Grass is green and I’m bout have tempted to mow.
If there’s a possibility of an “accumulation” of snow, anyone care to guess what range it will be?? A coating, half inch??? Gimme’ something here, lol!! 😛
we need all the original members, slash, axl, duff, izzy, and steven to be at the hall of fame induction. even matt sorum, who played with the band during the illusions era of the band.
hello rolo, my friend. hope you get that snow up there in ky. here in houston, its way to warm to snow. but dont worry, i should be back home by the 13th. hopefully i get to see some snow also this year.
hope everyone here on the blog, and everyone not on the blog, has a safe new year, and stays safe during the upcoming possible snow event.
LOL I thought I read something like that somewhere else…
Guess he is a fan of BG! 🙂
My spring phlox is blooming like crazy!
believe it or not small pea size hail falling here in Leslie County