Good Thursday to one and all. We’re just a few days away from closing out 2011 and the weather is fairly calm and quiet. 2012 looks to come in with a much different idea on how to run winter as an arctic blasts targets us and much of the eastern half of the country.
Our remaining days of the year look to feature fairly mild temps, plenty of clouds and breezy weather. Temps the next few days will hit the upper 40s and low 50s. We do have weak system dropping in by Thursday night and this will allow for the chance for some rain showers that may mix with a flake by Saturday morning.
You can see this fast moving system on the GFS…
That scoots through here at a good clip and will be out of town as we say hello to 2012. Temps will be in the 30s as we flip the calendar to the new year.
The real change begins New Year’s Day as an arctic front works blows through here. Our highs for the day will come during the morning hours and the winds will become very gusty. A line of rain showers will be along and ahead of the front with a period of light snow and snow showers behind it.
The Canadian Model shows how this plays out…
Sunday Evening
Monday Morning
Monday Evening
At this point, there should be no “this model verses this model” talk as they ALL now show a deep trough in the east. They have the usual subtle differences that you expect from 4 days out.
My take is we get a couple of days with highs struggling to get out of the 20s and lows dipping into the low and mid teens. Winds will be gusty during this time and that will really add to the chill.
What about the snow chances? The pattern argues for snow showers and squalls during this time and that’s especially true given how warm the Great Lakes are. We will also need to watch a system diving in by the middle of the week and that can become a snow producer.
I will have another update later today. Have a great Thursday and take care.
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NAO still quite positive….. NAO always wins and this shot of arctic air will be very short lived. The superstorm the ECMFW was showing was too good to be true. The NAO always wins. BUT….. I think this winter will go out with a bang. When the NAO goes negative, the superstorm the EURO previously showed could very well show up agin 🙂
I was just going to ask is this arctic shot going to be “short lived” or is it going to stay arctic for a while?
Hmmm, warm weather = lots of wet storms = RAIN! Artic air FINALLY gets involved = no storms! UGH!! At this point I would just like to see snow falling from the sky!!
i hope not! I am as big a snowlover as anyone else on the blog but if with such cold comes nice cute little gas bills that send me into orbit, i can only justify going into orbit if we get appreciable snows, meaning…bitter temps and atleast 6 or 8 inch snows. otherwise lets just have upper 40s and sun and enjoy it 😛
I’m hearing that the MJO is the big player on the field, like last year.its going towards where it was last winter.
i am a subscriber to weather bell and i too read the same thing by joe bastardi, so folks, the negative nao is not the only thing to drive the winter, in fact this trough will only get stronger over the next 2 to 3 weeks with siberian air possibly getting involved in our storms IF every thing goes just right or wrong, depending on whether or not you like cold weather.
All I can say is please, no more rain! My paddocks are a muddy mess. I’m no fan of bitter cold either unless it comes with snow!
Tommy, I’m with you on your comment!
Obviosuly nothing to see here. As much as i wish i was wrong, looks like the first half of winter will end with no accumulation at all. What happened to the mega storm next weekend btw?
It is rather funny how it plays out. We’ve had the heavy precip so far without cold air, but now that we got the cold air, we get no precip at all!!!
ACT IOOF GOD as i say, u know see as BAILEY said every model/ and every weather person agreeing on the trough snd COOOOOOLD ait.
but u need 3 miracles to get a BIG ANOW and fols the other 2 aint happinging.
u never het a big sanow when u are colds like it looking, u have to be setting on the dence and be on the right side of fense. meaning warm clashing cold and lets face it when hatr happens were on the above freezing fence.
could be a clipper or 2 with inch or 2 during this time as usual are with this set up.
i was wrong i said no 20 for highs other day next week,i eat that crow.
This place seems too dead. Somebody help to brighten the spirits by telling us about some snoe chances!!!
A couple of blogs over on accuweather’s site say the switch to true winter won’t be until the middle of February…..I don’t know what to think of it but I wish it would get here sooner!!!
It wouldnt surprise me if we didnt get any accumulation at all lol. I hear its supposed to warm back up after this short cold spell and i dont see any chance of accumulation before it turns back warm again.
New years eve front looking a little stronger for some snow.
As in accumulation?
the cold blast coming will be cold with a lot of light snow and snow showers blowing around with maybe an inch during the day and an inch or 2 during the night and all will be gone by that evening. late sunday night into early wed.
the thing about this cold blast and i have seen worse, is that it has been so mild for most of the season and this will come as a shock to the body. heck our lowest daytime temp so far has been in the 30s with rain and now you r talking 20s with wind and snow with a windchill in the single numbers. ouch!!!!!!!! just an opinion coming from a meteorologist wannabee.
My opinion: After looking at NAO etc. and models, a short lived cold snap thru early next week. For areas west of 75 some snow in the air but doubtful there will be any accum. To me surface temps appear will be to warm…….Then a warm up until mid January when there will be another shot of cold and snow chance……..For central Kentucky at this point I do not expect more than the possibility of a dusting (less than 1 inch) thru mid Jan………..Just my opinion.
Chris tweet just mentions cold, so i wouldnt expect much of anything for anyone in the way of accumulation
sorry missed 2nd tweet
Aside from the weather, WHO DEY!!! Big game for Cincy this weekend
Our only hope relies on the JMA Model,which actually looks pretty good for Centeral and Eastern Ky at Hour 96……IN other words we are SOL…..
only 2 things i hate about the game this weekend and it really does not have any thing to do with playing the game itself and that is number 1…….why should the players have to beg for fan support for a team that could possibly be heading for the playoffs exceeding every ones expectations to start the season and number 2………i was hoping they could meet pitt. in the wild card game but the way i see things is if cincy wins sunday then pitt. wins the division and cincy would play baltimore again next week in the wild card game, but if cincy loses obviously they will need help to get in the playoffs but assuming they get the help, baltimore would win the division and then cincy would get pitt. in the first round and that is the matchup i want to see but i don’t want to see cincy lose sunday either. oh well, lets just win and every thing else will fall into place.
i know this is football talk on a weather blog but shoot, the weather is so boring that we need something to talk about.
hey i have an idea, let us all go out and count the number of breaks in the clouds or how many different clouds we have at our respective areas. lol!!!!! what fun!!!!!!! oh boy!!!!!!
Or let’s do like we did the other day…count how many snow flakes you have seen this winter….i think i’ve seen maybe 5 or 6 flakes! ahahahah
Ah, if it is gonna get cold and not snow, might as well be -40 as to 10 above….
No, if Cincy wins, they will play Houston. If they lose and still get in the playoffs, they will play Houston. 6 seed plays the 3 seed. Houston is locked in as the 3 seed. Cincinnati can only be the 6 seed.
Still holding at 14- flakes- not inches in Eastern Louisville. On the LSD Scale (Louisville Snow Dome), this is just 11 flakes shy of being an official LSD blizzard. I am hoping for more. 🙂
i stand corrected my friend, i over looked houston when i typed a little bit ago. thank you for the correction. no matter how you slice it, cincy has a tough road to haul to get to the playoffs and then to the super bowl and to be super bowl champs which they will do so. geez, either i am cocky or confident or both. did i just say the bengals were going to the super bowl and win it? geez……we need some snow so i can get my sanity back. lol!!!!!! geeeeezzzzz!!!!!!!!!!!!! GO BENGALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Not much accumulation, but white stuff in the air blowing around in squalls, followed by nothing and intermittent squalls. Some will see more of nothing than squalls, and some the opposite.
I feel for CB this year, since this winter has potential of being the wimpiest for snow, since he started the blog (and then some).
well temps. close to 60 tomorrow!! think I’ll get those outside decorations took down, I think this was the first yr. in a while they never had any snow on them the entire, time!! No need to spoil the party so I’ll get them put up tomorrow. Before those SNOW-Squalls hit!!..:) nothing worse than taking decor. down in snow/wind/and temps. in the 20’s!!!!…I’d rather be sitting by the fireplace by then…