Good Wednesday evening gang. 2011 is going out on a rather tame note, while 2012 looks to ride into town on the arctic express. We have been highlighting this possibility for several days now and things appear to be right on track. What kind of snow will this bring our way? That’s still up in the air, but it should bring a heck of a snow shower and squall pattern if nothing else.
The GFS was the only model not showing a big trough in the east early next week, but it finally caved today…
It now matches what all other models have been saying for the past several days. The new European Model is even colder than any of it’s prior runs…
Folks, thats some cold stuff all the way deep into Florida! Taken verbatim, that’s one heck of a snow shower and squall pattern for Monday and Tuesday around here… especially with the Great Lakes being much warmer than normal.
A few days ago, I took a playful jab at the NWS in Jackson because their extended forecast discussions kept saying the European was wrong and had no support and that the GFS was the way to go. EVERY model has been supporting the European from day one and the GFS was the lone wolf in showing NO TROUGH. The GFS looks almost identical to the European now.
This is from their morning discussion before the GFS flipped:
THE NEXT BIG ENIGMA IN THE EXTENDED COMES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY PERIOD AS THE GFS…THE LIKELY SOLUTION…DEVELOPS A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AS A STRONG VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE…A VIGOROUS LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST.
THE FRONT EXITS THE COAST BY TUESDAY AND THIS IS THE PROGRESSIVE AND
MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AS THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND EURO
SUPPORT THIS. THE MEMBERS OF THE NAO WOULD SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. THE
EURO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT BUT HAS NO SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLES NOR
TELECONNECTIONS. IN THE EURO SOLUTION…A VERY DEEP AMPLIFIED TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY AND ALONG WITH IT…THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON. THE 28.00Z RUN OF THE EURO CONTINUES WITH THIS
SOLUTION AS WELL.
THEREFORE…AS STATED EARLIER…WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS.
I don’t even know where to start with that, so let’s move on to the afternoon discussion:
MODEL OUTPUT TAKEN AS A WHOLE DOES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION…ESPECIALLYWITH THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS SOLUTION.
Let me get this straight… it’s the European that’s now changing? WHAT? It shows the deepest and coldest solution it’s shown yet. I will give them that it’s more progressive. But did you notice there was NO talk of the GFS undergoing a drastic change and looking identical to the European?
I think someone has a future in politics or public relations. 
Spinning the weather doesn’t work… trust me I know from experience. 
What’s gonna happen is gonna happen and there is nothing we can do to change it.
What are the odds we see some new names from the Breathitt County region leaving comments after this post? Just don’t leave your real e-mail addresses this time guys.
Have a great evening and take care.
Select Page
Haha! Get’em Chris. Good stuff. Looks like we are in for some real winter weather come next week.
The old Heatmiser might need to hide under a rock for a few days next week :)!
Chris, what’s your predictions for the overall temp pattern for January?
Zing…ouch, CB! Of course the NWS is gonna spin like a politician, it is after all, funded by the federal government! I hope the cold pans out, and signifies a pattern change toward lasting cold, now we just need to get some good snow to go with it!
Thanks Chris!
It’s good to find out that I’m not the only guy who hates the ECMWF model and wishes a solar storm would take it out. There for a while I was beginning to think I was the only one out there. 😉 If history repeats itself, about Thursday night or Friday we’ll see the Euro do a flop and you won’t even see a trough in it at all.
OH, and the GFS never takes us below 20 degrees next week which we’ve already seen this year. So even though it does show some troughiness, it’s still going to argue with the Euro and CMC on the depth of the trough until the bitter end. 🙂 Why can’t the models just get along?
I am no met, but the NWS in jackson does seem to be late on their forecast, and end up posting all their warnings late.Unless it is a flood watch.
Why don’t you like the Euro? Don’t all models have their issues?
I agree 100%
The Weather Channel goes all in with the GFS with only one night showing temps in the low 20’s and a Monday and Tuesday high no colder than today was. They also like lows near 40 by Wednesday with lots and lots of sunshine. The way this winter is going, I won’t be sold on a cold outbreak till I actually see it. I hope Chris is right as I’d like to see some cold and snow.
YES, you are 100% correct. All of the models have their own idiosyncrasies and issues. But, for some reason the Euro is (falsely) regarded as the holy grail. The ECMWF weather model is in the same group as Toyota cars, UNC basketball, and Apple electronics… things that have a fantastic reputation, but earned none of it. 😉 It baffles me how this happens. Truth is, each model is great in it’s own right. They each deserve props for one reason or another…but the poor GFS never gets what it deserves. End rant. 🙂
It actually takes much of the state into the low and mid teens.
Your comment about Toyota is false. I drive one, and it certainly HAS earned its reputation.
Jackson is always wrong. Have been the last 2 Winters when CB was right.
Chris or anyone could these snow showers and squalls lead to any accumulation?
Let’s face it….if the mets at the Jackson KY weather office were any good, would they be in Jackson?!
Awww! That’s so bad!! True, but Bad!!! : )
I have two Toyotas. One has 201, 400 miles on it. Aside from brakes, cat-converter, timing belt, I’ve had ZERO major repairs. The other has 121,000-changed its oil, got a new computer chip, replaced a pvc valve and its going strong. These cars rock! JUST LIKE THE SNOW WE ARE GOING TO GET! I can feel it….not kidding.
keep in mind he said that it would bring one heck of a snow shower and snow squall pattern IF NOTHING ELSE!! there’s still a copious amount of solutions this can take!!
I have a Ford that has well over 300,000 with no major repairs. My father-in-law has a chevy with over 500,000, this is the honest truth, with no major repairs. The chevy is however a little body worn and could use a few holes fixed. That said, I also had a hyundai that had well over 200,000 when I sold it. So it has something to do with how well maintained. On the other hand, my neighbor has a Toyota and it needed repairs right out of warranty. The cost was huge because the parts were so high. The same parts for their other vehicle and my vehicles was much less. So, there are lemons in all of them as no manufacturing process is perfect.
I will say I do not know much about the forecast models but the GFS seems to always be the last to come around and that is usually when places like weather.com change their forecast for my area to what I read about here a day to a few earlier.
Snow showers/squalls are hard to predict when it comes to accumulations they can leave a trace to as much as a couple of inches if you get lucky enough to get under a heavy slow moving snow shower. I agree with Chris it’s a given we will have several legitimate shots of snow showers
nws jackson has got quiet a bit better last couple years. they are not perfect, but they have been doing a good job as of late. there was a weather event in late nov or early dec. where nws was saying little or no snow accumulation, but chris thought clsystem may see a inch or so. it was a system where we had rain and a supposed switchover to snow. we had a little mix precipitation with that event in clay co. this is not saying nothing bad about chris, cause chris is one of the best. i’m just saying nws jackson was almost spot on during the event. they do seem to make their share of mistakes, but don’t we all?
If we do get snow and cold coming this way, i hope to get back home from houston during this , or around the time this takes place. look to come back around the 9th or 10th or so.
hello rolo my friend.us hope you have kept clay co strait while i’ve been gone.
I’ll take Jackson over you anyday. They got skool
NWS JACKSON…….
sprinkles = FLOOD WARNING
(last year) 9.5 inches of snow = Winter WX advisory. lol
I agree with you they have gotten a lot better this year. I would say they have been right more than Chris has this year. Last year I lived by Chris but this year im sorry to say Chris you have been off. Just about every time the others have been right even the weather channel and Chris has been wrong. I read were he said we would get a lot of snow from this system coming but now its the one in the middle of next week. Im not saying we wont get snow but I would rather wait a few days for him to be sure instead of getting all this crap about big snows and then not getting any. Like I said I lived by Chris last year he was right every time but he needs to slow down and be like the rest wait to know for sure.
Looks like someone from the NWS is posting, lol. Pitiful.
I live in Jackson, but I follow CB. NWS always too late with the call!