Good Monday to one and all and welcome to the last week of 2011. It’s hard to believe we are about to wrap up another year and the year looks to be ending on an active note. That’s a fitting way to finish out a hyper active weather year across our region.
A storm system is gaining strength to our southwest today and will roll our way later tonight into Tuesday. The track of this low is one that will bring rain to snow across our part of the world as the storm passes by just to our south and east. The models show this very well…
GFS Ensembles
GFS
Here’s a breakdown…
– Rain arrives overnight with locally heavy downpours likely through Tuesday morning.
– The storm deepens and pulls in colder air from the north and west and will result in rain mixing with and changing to wet snow during the afternoon and evening.
– A light accumulation will be possible across most of the region. I will also be watching for what’s known as a ‘deformation zone’ working across the area on the backside of the low. That could mean a band of heavier snow for some.
– Temps will hit the mid 20s by Wednesday morning and that mean some slick spots may develop on area roads. Some leftover snow showers or flurries should be around to start the day… especially in the east.
– There will be a couple of weak systems diving in from the northwest later this week. These may try to bring something light our way.
– The models continue to point to a big buckle in the jet stream to begin the new year and this should mean a shot of cold and snow.
I will have another update later today. Have a great Monday and take care.
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THE ONLY THING I AM APPREHENSIVE ABOUT IS THAT NONE OF THE WEATHER STATIONS ARE PREDICTING ANY SNOW AT ALL. THEY ARE SAYING RAIN AND FORTIES FOR HIGHS….. THE WAY YOU TALK, WE COULD AT LEAST SEE A DUSTING. WHY HAS NO OTHER MET SO WHAT MENTIONED SNOW? HERE IN SE KY, WE HAVE NOT YET SEEN SO MUCH AS A DUSTING. IN MY OPINION, DONT FORECAST SO MUCH AS A FLURRY BECAUSE THE “MODELS” HAVE SAID THAT WE ARE GETTING SNOW 1,234,798 TIMES THIS YEAR SO FAR AND THEY HAVE DELIVERED 0 TIMES. LOL WHOEVER CAME UP WITH MODELS MAY HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT IN THE NORTH BUT HERE IN GOOD OLE KY, THEY DONT KNOW THEIR FACE FROM THEIE BUTT. IF THEY FORECAST SNOW, YOU CAN COUNT ON IT, WE ARE GETTING A HEAVY RAIN. PEOPLE IF YOU WANT TO KNOW THE WEATHER LOOK OUTSIDE. IF IT IS SNOWING HARD AND IT IS BECOMING DARK, YOU MIGHT WAKE UP TO A GOOD SNOW. IF YOU LOOK AT MODELS AND WAIT ON IT ALL NIGHT TO CHANGE TO SNOW, YOU ARE GOING TO WATCH THE YARD BECOME MUDDY AND SEE A BROWN SUNRISE. LOL USE COMMON SENSE. PLEASE ASK YOURSELF THIS, “HOW MANY TIMES HAVE THE “SNOW LOADED” MODELS DELIVERED EVEN SO MUCH OF A TRACE OF SNOW THIS YEAR?” …. LOL SO COMICAL….
prove me wrong…
There are other mets forecasting snow showers for tuesday after the rain. I would try to explain trending models and what forecsating means but don’t have the time or patience with you. Have a great day.
welllllllllllllllllllllllll
we made it thru another XMAS we everybody with us, so lets alll just say we are goooooooodd…
then when u least expect it, old man winter will remind u that he is ALIVE and wellll…….
so pop a top on a bottle set back relax but dont get wobbled and by next weekend OLE MAN WINTERBE HERE.
ok im not a poet.
but i am ROLO the rednck saying LOVE ALL U ALL.
song of the day
BORN IN THE USA by the BOSS
I’m turning my attention to the runs of the NAM. I’ve reviewed the 06z run and have found TREND and/or CONSISTENCY from run to run that does suggest rain to at least a mix of rain and snow for mostly central and east parts of our region.
Supporting this are these main factors:
Other models continue to hit on this same theme, as they have for several runs now.
Low pressure looks to deepen as it passes by to our south.
Freezing levels above the ground will support snow, although temps at the surface will be too warm; therefore, at least a mix of rain/snow.
The question now remains, how much deepening will low pressure undergo before exiting the region? Our favorite dynamic cooling theme may arise, though still quite uncertain at this time.
I would like to review the 12z (and maybe even the 18z run of the NAM) to see if any additional strengthening of the low is forecast.
Morning, all. I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas. Now, it looks like the weather may give us an interesting end to the year. Chris, I want to thank you for all that you do, and for this blog. I have made so many friends here. And learned so much about weather. I appreciate you all.
Rolo, we love you too. Hope Santa was good to ya. I wish you a good year in 2012 and hope your health is better. Born in the USA, now that was a good one, love that song.
i favor vincennes, indiana to dayton, oh for a decent snow out of this i am saying 2-6 inches in this area depending on time of changeover, this is the area where if dynamic cooling kicked in bigtime there could be a 6 or 8 inch snow, right now no model shows that but with the behavior of the low itself and a perfect track for that region its not totally impossible.
Quickly, someone get Derek some snow, bad case of snow withdrawal 😉
derek, u can not prove someone wrong when all they really wnat to do is argue about something, big difference, my friend.
the only time chris gives a forecast is when he says it is going to rain like he did in the post this morning or if it is snow or a snow storm coming he will put us under a winter storn alert mode and then and only then is he certain that a winter storm is coming, ice, sleet, snow, what ever.
if he is confident enough he will put out a first call snow map of what he thinks may happen a day or two before the storm then if his confidence goes any further he will put out a final call snow map and that will be his forecast for snow.
i only know of 1 time so far this season that has happened and he busted in some areas and looked great in other areas. i am sure that there r other forecasters out there that have busted time and time again.
when chris did bust he , himself went on record and said that rain changing to snow was not 1 of his strong points, well my friend, guess what, that is exactly what type of scenario we have in front of us for tuesday and tuesday night.
there is more that goes into a weather forecast than looking at the radars to see the trends of the precip. type.
the radar may show snow on the screen in your area but it may be still raining at ground level and that is what makes it so difficult, hence, chris baileys weak point in winter forecasting.
if u can do any better my friend, then go to school and have at it.
Coffeelady, you always have a nice, positive post. Always wanted to tell you that.
I’m heading to Michigan tomorrow. It looks like I may be driving into the worst of it. Am I correct in guessing the snow is more if an evening thing. I hope to be around Dayton by noonish. Is this a good timeline or should we adjust?
I’m going to take the accumulating snow line a tad bit south to the Ohio River. The storm track favors the county’s along and north of the river I believe this is where some isolated areas of banding will be taken place. Everybody as of right now will see some snow just think the best accumulating snow will favor the counties bordering the Ohio River and points north.
thats the time of changeover for south dayton as of now.
Why all the caps? Compensating for other areas? 😉
You appear to be only reading what you want to think and perhaps watching another TV market for news, since the other stations are mentioning snow showers too. Nobody nor CB are implying much if any accumulation.
Unless I’m interpreting the runs incorrectly, the 12z NAM looks pretty good to me for some accumulating snow in central KY!
Looking at the 12z nam. If there is going to be even a minor accumulation In Lou. & Lex area, the snow going to have to come down hard & furious. I only see a 2 to 4 hour window.
I think surface temps are WAY too warm for snow. Just my opinion.
folks tomm aint going be no snow, now look at the NEW YEARS STORM the NAO is positive and that the ball game folks. aint going be no snoetorm till we got negative, yea light snow/mix possible but the fact is as i said couple days ago JAN going be normal to above normal and it look to be that way thru march. now if and only if we get a sneaky set up to suprise us we might get a good snow, but right now from now thru march it look like u best look fotrward to next winter.
we havnt had a real winter here in years anyway, this aint real winter 40 and lower 50s lows in 20s. sorry bust bubble as rolo usually trying to pump up[ the snow machine but it ober.
BAILEY just looking at the models week out sees possible storm and post bout it to keep the blog as up beat as he can, but even the LEGEND KNOWS positive NAO ETC there no asnow coming.
tx ole buddy, yea had great weekend with my family and now back to work with the horses today.
for accumulating snow south and east of i71 in Ky yes i agree, still if nam is right could be some decent wrap around snow showers as the moisture pulls out
How’s the latest man looking? hearing conflicting reports lol
How’s the latest nam look?
The Weatherless channel has already forecast 40 degree weather & 1-2 inches of RAIN for Tuesday in CKY. Not even hinting it might change to snow? If we had any cold air to tap into, this would be old school snow 12in. plus 🙁
You can never really base anything by TWC or AccuWeather though. They get it right sometimes but I never base a forecast off what they say.
Wow! So you don’t think we’ll even a little snow on the backside, eh?
Warm ground= Party pooper. Lol.
Hi Derek. From the NWS Louisville discussion:
Brief periods of moderate
to heavy banded snowfall will be possible by late morning and
through the afternoon as deformation zone on the back side of the
departing system moves over the area.
Sound familiar? I think you have been reading about that possibility on the blog for a few days now.
If you want to argue a point… fine. But you really shouldn’t say things that simply are not true and PLEASE STOP YELLING. 😉
Peace out.
Guys I’ve been saying Winter wasn’t coming this Season. Enjoy all the rain and get ready for my stormy season. 🙂
Chris, you have been snappy to all your haters. Lol. I like it!
I guess that would be my main concern as well. Thermal profiles certainly are cold enough for snow, though it would have to come down pretty heavy to accumulate on warm and wet ground. I think the larger concern would be Tuesday night with temps going below freezing and roads freezing up.
How’s it looking for next monday?
Sorry to tell ya but accuweather has been dead on all winter. Even when CB was calling for snow they stuck by their forecast.
Dude we ain’t haters — we may just disagree or just don’t like snow. Dang everybody should have their own opinion
Easy there..I was referring to the guy at the top and sunshine. I am talking about the real haters the ones who say things such as ” Chris you suck, your always wrong. I am leaving and giving you a bad rep.” Or something similar. Lol. People that say that kinda stuff are haters.
Easy there..I was referring to the guy at the top and sunshine. I am talking about the real haters the ones who say things such as ” Chris you suck, your always wrong. I am leaving and giving you a bad rep.” Or something similar. Lol. People that say that kinda stuff are haters.
Chris, THREAT MODE Maybe??? Several inches of 34 degree snow possible in Ncentral KY Tuesday AFt/Eve 🙂
I’m referring to people who blatantly and repeatedly tell chris he was wrong and say things like ” Chris you suck, your always wrong I’m leaving and never checking this site again.”I.e sunshine and the guy at the top of the comments on this post. Lol. We all have our opinions. I’m just saying the people who are trolls he has been snappy with.
18z NAM holds steady…Met BG in Louisville calling for at least 1″ in Louisville.
Again, one of those hard forecasts because dynamic cooling could make for some surprises or not; otherwise, ground temps and wet ground still look to hamper any substantial accumulations, if any.
Will depend on those freezing levels above ground level as to when changeover will take place. It’s not a matter of IF, but WHEN.
Everyone’s observations will help because this thing is going to come down to some with moderate to heavy snow and across the street just rain.
my thoughts are posted on my site. still not giving this much more than a 50/50 shot for BWG-Lex line for a changeover with the best chance across western KY and I-71 where the best forcing/lift is expected. Southeast KY have to be concerned about a temp spike into the mid 40’s around late morning Tuesday thus I think only flurries for many southeast of the bluegrass region. Accumulations should be under 1/2 inch and on grass where it does snow, locally higher amounts in the favored regions above.
I do believe He was referring to actual snowfall when He said “prove me wrong” in the 2ND post. Guys Chris is a big boy and can handle the people that actually need reprimanding, seems like a few on here are quick to squash the posters that have spelling,grammar or simply have a differing opinion.
If they are being mostly respectful,well then they deserve to post their opinion(remember what you post is your opinion too)!
I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and that you all have a great New Year!!
CORRECTION// Met BG posted latest information from NWS office here in Louisville…He likes 1-isolated 2″ but closer to an inch.
my thoughts are posted on my site. still not giving this much more than a 50/50 shot for BWG-Lex line for a changeover with the best chance across western KY and I-71 where the best forcing/lift is expected. Southeast KY have to be concerned about a temp spike into the mid 40’s around late morning Tuesday thus I think only flurries for many southeast of the bluegrass region. Accumulations should be under 1/2 inch and on grass where it does snow, locally higher amounts in the favored regions above.
LOL @ Bubba. No folks, I am not bashing
CB. I love CB, this is my #1 site for my weather info. I am just a frustrated snow freak. Sometimes I just get too mad at the models and have to vent. In no way was I aiming anything at CB. LOL and I am not a spelling and grammar expert. I am just a good ole coal miner from harlan county. lol. Just hoping for snow. Hope everyone had a merry christmas. god bless.