Good evening gang. Anyone else hearing that noise? Shhh… listen quietly. You can hear that loud chorus of other folks now talking about the possibility of some snow this Christmas weekend. 
Hard to believe we actually have the chance for Christmas snow with a taste of spring in the air right now.
I really have no changes from my thoughts from the past several days on how the weekend plays out. The European Model continues to hold a steady hand with a Christmas into Monday storm system.
If we take that model at face value it would mean rain and snow changing to snow Christmas Day with backlash light snow into Monday. Is the model right? It has been steady as a rock with the overall theme of a Christmas storm and this is the model you want leading the pack.
The poor GFS continues to be wretched beyond belief. It runs 4 times a day and never shows a similar solution.
I still cannot say you are going to have a white Christmas. I do think many areas will see flakes flying at some point this weekend. Can we get a track to give us accumulating snows? It’s possible and that’s something I will be closely following over the next few days.
Our short term weather is mild and wet. You could even hear some thunder later tonight into Wednesday as a cold front swings in. There is enough wind energy upstairs that any strong shower or storm could tap some of this and create gusty winds. Temps will head toward the low 60s.
Another wet weather maker crashes the party on Thursday. This system will have heavy rains to go along with chilly temps in the 40s.
A Full update will be on later tonight and I will be tweeting some updated thoughts. Take care.
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WOW!!! Like I said late last week when you were talking about this storm. I am traveling south for my daughters bball tournament and I am sure it will snow here in Ky while I am trying to enjoy 65 degree water temps in the Atlantic Ocean…THINK SNOW!!!!
i disagree with BAILEY for one of few times, he just talking FLAKES FLYING, myself i see something ALOT more than flakes as i posted last thread.
i see 5 or more inches as a storm really cranks up as it move NE and iff it deepens like i think SE AND EKY get hammered BACKLASH snows. but hell im redneck And BAILEY the real deal.
but my WITHE XMAS it may be XMAS nite meter is at 75 percent right now.
When are people going to realize that Chris is the only one to listen to when it comes to the weather?
Well, it’s 55 degrees here in Owensboro with rain. We are looking at a good chance of some thunder tonight. Booo…the local mets here are saying our best bet here is a light rain/snow mix for Christmas 🙁
Until the GFS & the NAM comes on board. I am going to hold judgment about this weekend snowfall. With that said, I rather have the Euro on our side than any other model.
BUFKIT data has some 20 mph winds overnight with a strong LLJ as chris pointed out some of the heavier showers and rumbles of thunder may add to strong winds. Shear is in place for a very isolated severe threat overnight. Went with Precip christmas day on my forecast. Will wait on detailing type of precip at this time. I could see it going either way.
the 18z NAM upper air pattern for Saturday morning is very similar to the Euro model above at the same time.
The track of that storm that the Euro is showing is almost perfect. If we could just get a little more cold air in here, wow. This is one of the RARE times when I’m actually boarding the ECMWF ship and hoping it takes me where I want to go. About 3 more hours and we can start looking at the 00Z stuff. Should be very very interesting…
Mitch & Wxman you guys are way beyond my knowledge regarding the total comprehension of weather.
I don’t think we’ll see all that much change in the model data considering this storm in question is still in the Gulf of Alaska and will not enter the North American upper air network for another 24-30 hours. I would imagine that some substantial changes in the track will likely come late Wednesday and into Thursday.
I don’t really feel good in terms of our snow chances. Anyone else feel that way? Lol. It just feels like we aren’t worthy of snow. Hahah. I guess we will all have to hop on a grey hound bus and take a trip out to aspen together. Chris, you buyin’?
All this hype for flakes? The way everyone is talking, accumulating snow is a long shot and as far as I’m concerned, if you take what Chris and everyone else who mentioned the dry solution from a few days ago and average it, you get the weather for this weekend.
http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif since this run the system itself is actaully about 12 to 24 hours slower than thought which is good for us because it gives us more time for the cold to get here.
in this run of the euro u can see 850s, so ASSUMING surface temps are at or below 32 even then only western and northern KY see snow.
I’ll believe it when I see it. #BubbaG
The GFS is waffling bad, but the EURO has not been impressive either. It had a very cold 00z yesterday, but a much warmer 12z run. Remember its not about the computer runs, but about the meteorology. This is a closed low style pattern. Closed lows are not the best in producing snow’s in are region. Granted it’s worth watching but very unlikely to see any thing but a very light rain or snow mix, if that.
Well, the 00Z GFS run coming in is now trending back toward something brewing in the gulf and moving into the southeast on Christmas day. More waffles… this is getting crazy. But I think the consensus between all the available data is that SOMETHING is going to kick up this weekend in this area and it’s not going to end up being a bone dry forecast the entire weekend. Like MJ said though, right now we’re still speculating since the players aren’t on the field.
i know its almost 2 weeks but the NAO might be trending negative with a snowstorm in the east to start off the new year.
outhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIJG5W5UDII&feature=g-all-u&context=G2adb132FAAAAAAAAAAA
new CMC more in line with GFS with a sheared out weeker vort max which is more progressive this weekend. no storm. Would like to see the 00z euro before going in a reverse direction in terms of christmas weather.
winter storm watches from southern new mexico to northern montana LOL well even if they get 2 feet those high plain/rocky mtn chinooks could still eat all that snow before christmas.
Christmas morning is good but i like new year morning it’s look like The God Gives Bless me whole year.