Good Tuesday to one and all. If you were planning on a quiet holiday travel period… you may want to star over as mother nature is loaded with fast moving systems that will impact our region and much of the country. This sets the stage for heavy rain over the next few days with the potential for wintry conditions in time for Christmas weekend.
Let’s start with today and work forward. Low pressure is moving in from the southwest and will cross the Ohio Valley late tonight and early Wednesday. Showers will increase out there today… especially in the afternoon and evening hours.
Follow the drops…
Rain will increase overnight and early tomorrow and I can’t rule out a rumble of thunder in some cases. Winds should also be on the gusty side as temps spike well into the 50s today and Wednesday. A 60 is possible.
This storm will work to our northeast on Wednesday as cooler air moves in. Our drying trend won’t last long as a compact, but soaker of a storm develops to our southwest early Thursday. Heavy rain will overspread the region and carry us into Thursday night. Rainfall of 1″-2″ will be possible through Friday morning.
It’s at this point things begin to take on a much more wintry look. Colder air slowly slides in from the northwest. I have been harping on the dual system idea now for several days and the models are going toward my thoughts. One system works through and just to our south Friday with another, more important storm impacting Christmas Day into Monday.
The European Model has the Friday wave of low pressure along the Tennessee Valley with a cold rain or a mix of some rain and snow close to us. The model then jumps toward the bigger storm idea with low pressure developing across the Gulf Christmas Eve and lifting northward along the coast Christmas Day…
It also shows another system diving in from the northwest Christmas Night into Monday. The above maps would put us in play for some snow. Again… i’m just breaking down what the map is showing.
The GFS has been slowly coming around to more of a storm idea… though it does have timing and phasing issues compared to the European…
I am not to the point that I can say for sure that it will snow where you live this weekend. I can only tell you it is certainly an increasing option. To what extent remains to be seen and that’s something that should become more clear in another day or so.
Regardless… the weather for Christmas weekend looks anything but mild and dry like some of you guys were promised from 9 days away. 
No… I’m not tired of saying that yet. haha
Updates will come your way later today. Have a good Tuesday and take care.
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from LMK WHITE CHRISTMAS CHANCES INCREASING???…
The Christmas Eve/Christmas Day forecast continues to be low
confidence as models are very inconsistent with the chaotic upper
air pattern. That being said, chances are increasing with potential
for a white Christmas somewhere between north central Kentucky and
the lower Great Lakes. In consensus with surrounding offices, have
kept these chances low until confidence in forecast models is
higher. The 00Z suite of models have trended toward a more amplified
trough moving from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley sometime
between Christmas Eve afternoon and early Christmas Day. At the same
time, some degree of surface cyclogenesis looks to take place near
the region. Depending on timing/placement of the system, temperature
profile looks cool enough across a good portion of central Kentucky
and southern Indiana for a brief snowfall event. Until amount of
deep moisture and timing can become more clear will only call for a
low chance of snow Christmas Eve/early Christmas Day. At this point,
best chances for any light accumulations would be along and north of
the Ohio River.
reading alot of different forecasts and looking around and i think snow in the air is the most likely outcome for most of KY. I do think that far western KY into central IN and OH stands a better chance to get snow on the ground. I think rain to snow showers would be where i place my bet now.
am i wrong in thinking this is another possible situation where surface low track is decent BUT cold air is just lacking? I do not like storms where the upper low is the only source of cold.
Temperature will not be right for us here in SE Ky…the higher elevations will probably get snow again. But for us VALLEY people…rain…and it is the bad four letter word…LOL
Sometimes you just have a feeling about things…I know models don’t lie (lol)…but this upcoming winter just doesn’t have THAT feeling to it. The kids are supposed to get out on May 9th this year. I think they will be very close to that.
TOMMY and WES spot on, it be like couple weeks ago when we had snow forcasted, it be rainy/mixy with temps in mid to upper 30s.
today not a song but a movie CHARACTER
!!!COUSIN EDDIE FROM VACATION one of the ALL TIME greatest CHARACTERS EVER!!
in XMAS VACATION the scene when he empty the PORTIBLE BATROOM is classic,
the ##@$#@## full.lol
Is Rusty still in the Navy…LOL
Great movie!!!
I looked over four different models, and every one of them currently has different ideas about the weekend. Geez…
hahahaha…This is multiple choice.
A. Rain
B. Snow
C. Rain to Snow
D. Snow to Rain
E. All of the above
“You rub his belly Clark, and He’ll love you till the day you die”
“”Can I get you anything Eddie, drive you out to the middle of nowhere for dead”
yeah, and Joe Bastardi says this morning on his blog that you better enjoy what winter weather you get in the next 10 days..because the BLOWTORCH takes over jan 1-20th from Texas to Mid-atlantic states…so that pretty much takes care of Dec.-Jan. being NON-WINTER months…I sure hope Feb.brings at least some snow!! by March we’re all ready for spring …UGH..
I would actually disagree with Bastard-i on that. I think this is the period when we get our only brutal winter weather.
Yes, the wise man takes what JB says with a grain of salt. He butchered the general winter wx forecast last year. Blowtorch is not the right word. At the most, a continuance of the persistent zonal flow (1-3 degrees above average) through mid-January at this point…
…you know what is full!!!! hahahahahaa
Doubtful. He’s quick to forget the stratospheric warming in the polar regions that still is expected to occur over the next 2 weeks. The colder than norm temps will start over the northern plains perhaps pac NW then expand southeast in Jan. should be a week or two of below normal temps in this period.
Unfortunately, I have to agree with Bastardi. And, I also believe that we snow lovers may be in trouble for the rest of the winter. We are having to wait for stratospheric warming to take place to create a situation where we can get some colder air into our region. That is still a good four weeks away, if not longer. I know what the analog years say – this should be a year when snow lovers rejoice. But, I think this year is going to end up being classified as some kind of outlier. By the time get the shots of cold air in our region it is going to be spring. The end result is going to be a winter with cold rains followed by some shots of marginally cold air and a cold spring with cold rain. The mountains of SE Ky will pick up some snow occasionally, but those of us in the the rest of the state will be in a snow drought this season. If we do see a big snow, it won’t be forecast very far in advance, if at all.
That being said, I love winter, I love snow, and I love the discussions on this blog. I am not a pessimist, that is just the way I see winter panning out this year. I sure do hope I am wrong!
He,He….Good one,wonder how many caught that…
Really no use in looking at the models right now..Too many things going on in the upper levels for the models to handle…
yeehaawwwwww bring on the warm weather, get out the sun glasses, clean up the golf clubs and let’s have some outdoor fun …. I’m doing a sun dance around my computer right now …. no snow, no snow, no snow … eyyyyyahhhhhhhh
Amen! I do hope that outcome is wrong. I there’s too much emphasis on analogs. They are a guide, nothing more IMO. Outliers seem to be the new trend, as ironic as it may sound. I’m not picky. I would love just a two-week cold, arctic outburst if that’s all MN could squeeze out for us. At this point, all of our expectations should be lowered to the point we’d appreciate anything, except nasty, balmy, humid weather during winter. That’s what late spring and summer is for.
I don’t remember any bats in that movie.
classic BFAN!!
lovewhen he had the kids round up snakes to keeop them busy.lol
then when he kidnap clark boss.
ohh and when ask clark i bet u supridsed we showed up for XMAS.LOL
clark u wantr a beer? give him oner he has opewn.lol
everuyy majior weather outfit saying JAN THRU MARCH ABOPVE NORMAL TEMPS so I agree with JOE B that what i see as well.
I’m officially changing the time from December to April to SPRING…rain, muck and cool but not cold temperatures. LOL
Yeah, he’s been hounding that about everyday, but his theory is until the strat warming moves towards east canada and greenland that the west will be in the artic trough while the East stays warm until late jan. Or so. It will be interesting to watch it all play out.he is being very bullish on the fact that the se will be blowtorch warm the first half of the month. A
Not really, he’s been hitting the strat. warming theory hard for some time now, he believes eventually the cold will try to come se. but it wont be for at least 3-4 more weeks..he believes the trough digs into the west and pumps the ridge in the east then cold starts spreading out, but will have a real fight trying to get into the se…so I guess we’ll see..
the reason why there all saying warm for the rest of the winter is b/c the only thing they look at are the euro monthlies product and nothing else which is my view is bad meteorology. GFS really going away from what should happen it has a gang of yesturday’s 12z JMA, the 00z CMC and the 00z ECMWF against it right now. The pattern has been been for a less progressive pattern for the past several months and not what the 12z gfs has.
I’ll click like on chris’s twitter status.
So snow or a little snow lol.
I asked the other day why coffeelady was not posting anymore, and cb said that sunshine was no longer with us. Can someone tell me why, I sure hope that it does not mean what I am thinking.
I’m with you, Heatmizer. After two winters of solid snows here in the SE Ky mountains I’m ready for a milder winter. I’m sure the parents in the area will be happy to have their kids in school more than out for a change as well. We’ve had snow caps on the mountains a couple of times already and I’m sure we’ll see that again this weekend, but that’s all I want this year.
preach it …. last winter was horrible, i did like a white christmas but then it seemed like all of january was snowing everyday and i drive 30 minutes one way to work and it gets old …. so let me join in the sun dance with ya !!!
Sorry, but I feel like its going to be rainy for christmas, prove me wrong weather! I’m going by how it feels, Even Chris says you cant trust models however he’s saying that it might “be wintry weather” by what models are showing..but if you look so far at what the weather has been doing since middle of nov..its easy to see its going to rain/cloudy..probably around 35 degrees..If were lucky,we may see some flurries Monday
After looking back over the NAO monthly index and doing some comparisons the winter of 69/70 looks to me as similar to current pattern. If I am correct there was an extended time of an impressive negative index leading up to that winter followed by positive spikes. That winter had near normal snowfall or slightly below.
Comments from someone with more knowledge would be appreciated.
Given that, my thought would be a season total expectation of 10-15 inches of snow for central Kentucky.
Yeah, I don’t want to burst happy bubbles on here, but for most of TN & KY, it looks rainy. Models all over the place except for the fact it will be too warm. Love to be proven wrong! Exception…extreme northern KY & SE mountains…
folks i tell u thins, the euro been most consistant, and if it come to pass there going be OLD SCHOOL stormn xmas day INTO MONDAY. start as rain changing to WET HEAVY SNOW,
man if we get this model to show this tomm nite and thursday its ON!! I trust EURO and he hads a model or 2 coming around.
love thisstuff, right noe the REDNECK WHITE XMAS SNOW METER has jusp to 53.5 percent.
right now i COULD see if ad i said model keep consistant thru thursday and foot of snow for parts of KY.
ohh PHILLY PARK known now as Parx r6 bet 8/6 DOUBLE r7 bet whatever on 6.
Rolo so Snow or what.
Rolo, for which part of Kentucky would this be for? Keeping my fingers crossed…..
I’m still not impressed by the models yet.
The latest GEM shows rain possibly ending as mix/flurries
The latest GFS is a day later and possibly a dollar shorter, or maybe not, anyway it shows a lt rain event with nothing of any consequence on the backside.
The latest Euro shows a more southern solution in its latest run but again suggest mostly rain with changeover as colder air filters in behind the low. Could be interesting to see how much moisture the system taps into as eastern KY could get a nice snow if the cold air catches up in time.
Cold rain, except in higher elevations. That’s all. Sorry to all us snow lovers
Ole JB, has posted a snowfall map on his blog this evening, and shows east ky and Tn, all of WVA and up I-95 corridor getting heaviest snows for sat.-Mon….:)
Can you link us to it.
Second, Vanessa. Can you link it or capture a screen shot and post it elsewhere to view?
JB apparently has been drinking some of rolo’s moonshine…
Looking at the upper air set-up the nam at 84 hrs is very similar to the ecmwf and not the OP GFS. even more indications there will be a storm. However still precip type may very will end up mainly rain.
18z GFS looks interesting…Looks like it trys to cut off 2 ull’s out west…
My Malamute is tired of all this warm weather. He says bring on the white death…I agree.
I’m a lurker who has occasionally posted in the past, but this is the first for this season.
For some time, I’ve worried this winter would end up like 2001-2002. That season the cold forecasts busted big time.
I’m not going to say it’s time to cancel winter, but our best bet is something that hits very late in the season.
I’ll gladly take snow showers flying even if it’s only a dusting…where would you put the odds? 10%?
Its all about timing..If cold air arrive’s sooner then my guess is northern parts of ky will see some snow,,,Still too early though to even talk about whats going to happen…Models are still having a train wreck…
Sry,Eastern not northern…System looks to far south anyways to amount to anything…