Good Saturday everybody. Many areas got in on some light sleet and light snow on Friday and this put an end to the spring fling we had been in. We have a seasonably cold weekend in store for the region as we look ahead toward the prospects for some snow for Christmas.
Let’s break it down headline style…
– Temps today will generally run in the upper 30s for highs with a mix of sun and clouds. There is a weak disturbance working across the northern Ohio Valley tonight that could throw a few flurries into northern and eastern Kentucky. Play find the flakes on regional radar…
– Sunday will start cold with temps in the low and mid 20s. Sunshine will help boost our temps into the 40s for highs.
– Clouds and temps will be on the increase by Monday as a storm gathers strength to our southwest. Highs will head toward the upper 40s and lower 50s.
– Showers work in on Tuesday as the low pressure works into the Ohio Valley. Temps will hit the low and mid 50s as our winds pick up.
– This low will slowly lift out of here later Wednesday as colder air rushes in from the northwest. This has a shot to end the rain as a bit of a mix.
– The overall pattern for the end of next week into Christmas weekend will feature a deep trough being carved out across the eastern half of the country. I have spent the past several days showing you various computer forecast models all showing the same thing. There is likely to be some kind of storm developing on Friday of next week and this could bring some snow in here.
The GFS is even picking up on it…
I’m only showing you the GFS to illustrate the fact there could be a wintry scenario playing out just in time for Christmas weekend. I cannot tell you if it will be white where you live… I can tell you I really like the pattern I’m seeing from a week away. It’s not just one model showing cold and snow chances… it’s all of them.
A couple more things on next weekend…
– I wonder if we can get an upper low to close off over the area?
– There’s the potential for two systems to bring us snow chances. One Friday into early Saturday and another arriving Christmas day into the following day.
– It’s a cold look for a lot of the country Christmas weekend into the final week of the year.
As always… let’s see how all this plays out over the next several days. I will have another update later today, so check back. Have a great Saturday and take care.
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Surprised to NOT hear any talk about the 00Z run of the GFS…we have crossed over from the land of voodoo and at least this run looks encouraging for some decent cold and maybe a flizzard??
flizzard? Thats a good name for what we get around here.
This is the last paragraph of the main forecast discussion from the Louisville NWS Office. First hint at anything I have read from them. It is Saturday morning, and for me to see this so early can only mean one thing. With travel starting up late next week they are giving heads up just incase, or something could possibly be brewing. Might be interesting.
This is coming from the person who posted two cutters (Great Lakes lows) and a partridge in a pear tree on a Louisville Mets Facebook page earlier this week.
Helps if I post the NWS Discussion eh!?
000
FXUS63 KLMK 170815
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2011
The area will dry out for a day or so, with the return of surface
high pressure and ridging aloft, before the next wave develops near
the Gulf Coast states. The southern portion of the forecast area
could see some rain from this system by Thursday afternoon, but the
best chance for the entire area would be Thursday night through
Friday. The track of this system will be one to watch over the next
several days for the possibility of rain changing over to snow as a
colder airmass is projected to drop into the upper Midwest and Great
Lakes with the surface low tracking further south than the Tuesday
event. Stay tuned!
Long Term……..MJP
Wow, I don’t remember being so disappointed in an early season winter as I have this one so far. Chris’ snowy attitude is always appreciated, but I think the analogs and enthusiasm have failed you Chris. Those GFS maps for late next week are weak at best with maybe a flurry or two…oh well. At this point, I’m hoping for a few big snow chances in January, but I won’t hold my breath.
Paul u must not lived here long or are 3 years old, because this is the norm past decade as far as snow goes.
now good to seee BAILEY talking in update about what i thinking late next week with the trough and storm developing. its all bout TIMING FOLKS.
song off day
HIGH COTTON by Alabama
It looks like we are going to have to drink the margarita on the rocks. Even though we would prefer to have the frozen concoction being poured out of the blender.
It looks like we are going to have to drink the margarita on the rocks. Even though we would prefer to have the frozen concoction being poured out of the blender.
It looks like we are going to have to drink the margarita on the rocks. Even though we would prefer to have the frozen concoction being poured out of the blender.
It looks like we are going to have to drink the margarita on the rocks. Even though we would prefer to have the frozen concoction being poured out of the blender.
Hahaha
I’m dreaming of a sunny Christmas, just like the ones we always know, may your days be sunny and bright and best of all there will be no snow!!!!
like i saoid yesterday we had white XMAS last year, i mean cant be real pissed bout this year if it doesnt snow.
As I said yesterday, or the day before…Hope Springs Eternal! Thanks for the update, and for all you do, Chris!
Rolo my bud, I think this winter will be different even than our previous “less than great” winters.
Always a chance, but I expect fairly strict adherence to the Kentucky fence law of mainly 33+ wet and 32- dry. Agreed though that the mountains have a better chance.
Just my opinion, so woopdeedoo 😉
I read a blog this morning from another source, who seems to think the se. is gonna be warmer than normal most of the winter, outside about a 2-3wk. period from now to early jan. where we MIGHT see some action…but after that his take is that the trough develops strong in the west and the se ridge goes wild over the east for mid jan. and feb…and he did say the cold would be cold enough for low level leakage..which means artic fights the se ridge underneath leading to increased threats of ICE STORMS…YUCK!!
Man I sure hope we get at least one good snow this yr…
Bubba
I can’t WAIT to see the day where you’re 32/dry 33/wet law comes back to BITE you
😀
hello every one from the town of wayne, wva. just wondering what happened to the changes to the weather blog that was supposed to have started this week by registering before you could leave a comment…..hhhhmmmm….. just wondering, well any way on to the task at hand and that is the weather.
not a bad day out there today for late fall/ early winter, the temp is in the upper 30s to low 40s with the sky clearing out to let some sun come out.
i just took a peak at the 12z gfs model run for the POSSIBLE STORM for next friday and saturday and just as 1 would expect, the model has the storm staying completely south of us and sliding off the se coast which given no blocking is occurring right now and none expected to develop next week, we all know no storm forming down in the south is not just going to slide off the se coast.
yesterday the model was calling for 1 low to cut up over huntington, wva and another low to form off the virginia capes which would have meant a rain to snow set up here with back lash flurries and snow showers taking us through christmas eve.
now either no storm at all or 1 that slides off the se coast. what will sundays run bring us? who knows or cares for that matter?
to sum it all up, no one has predicted the start up to winter correctly, not even 2 of the best mets that i know of, chris bailey and joe bastardi, both of whom thought that winter would kick in late nov. into early dec. but so far it has been a no show.
so i guess mother nature is trying to tell us that no matter how much you study the weather that sometimes we must face reality and admit that some one else is in charge of the weather besides a bunch of computer models and weather mets.
thanks for reading and may god bless each and every one of you.
WOW..looks like a white Christmas is in store for the folks in the panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma!! 6-12″ of snow forecasted for them …if it dont melt..
well I really dont buy the 12z suppression of the storm, given the pattern so far this season. the pattern sure suggests a more NW tracking storm! I guess we’ll see…
I completely agree. the 12z GFS is smokin’ something whacky! Don’t buy it…
Honestly, I’m not even going to waste my time worrying about the rest of winter right now. I just hope some snow at Christmas is within driving distance (which for me…I would go 3-4 hours out of the way) Besides, you good folks should know not to put all your eggs in the underachieving GFS (so far this winter anyway)…
WYMT Weather guys are still saying no snow.
i 100% agree with you on that. models r not making any sense at all. they r showing absoluptely no blocking at all, yet the lowly gfs decides to suppress a storm and take it off the se coast and as chris has said before……it aint gonna happen.
I see no signs of a white christmas. The friday system appears to move out to quick before a brief cooldown of a few chilly days of normal to slightly below temps around then. The next warm-up is already in sight around the 27th. each warm period is twice as a long as warmer compared to normal than the cool-downs folks. LEX is 3*F above normal for the month. Jan may be better if the stratospheric warming works out. However like in most all la-nina winters Feb should feature a blowtorch of warmth. This winter will be warmer than normal and I’m finding it harder to figure out how we get 75% of normal snow this winter. I’m back posting full time again on my site, I guess as scrooge for now.
still saying 45 percent chance off a APP RUNNER east apps runner to happen and thqt bve good for E SEKY.
but long time yet to go. be wed befre we know what its going do rain,sunb,60s, 30 HEAVY SNOWSTORM.
How many inches.
Last year proved that even in a strong La nina pattern, anything can still happen. February was 37 degrees average temp. on the month which isn’t blowtorch warm, and we had 4.5″ of snow. So, it was a very wintry month. Textbook La Nina years are warm here, but last year was certainly not textbook. This year so far HAS been textbook and that ridge in the southeast is holding strong. At some point, that cold in Canada is going to dislodge and come rolling it. Right now, it’s looking like January at the earliest. But I agree on Christmas though.. time is running out on us and that storm in the gulf is still very iffy on it’s track.
you keep talking like that i dont have the heart to read your blog sorry
WHAT IS HAPPENING !? There has been a mysterious white substance falling from the sky this afternoon, in spots it is turning the tips of the grass white. Anyone know what this could be? Please help, I’m scared!
Flurries lol.
Holy Crap, the 18Z GFS is turing this Coming weekend into a blowtorch!!!
What does that mean.
what does that mean.
ALWAYS the chance 🙂
One day a winter system might not get T-boned in central KY.