Good Wednesday everybody. Some big changes are on the way to the bluegrass state over the next few days as the weather pattern has that extreme look to it. We have many areas of the country getting hammered by early season snows as a powerful hurricane churns away in the Caribbean.
Our changing weather starts today as showers and some thunderstorms increase from northwest to southeast. I will have the usual tracking toys coming up in a bit. Before then… we have a lot to show you.
A strong cold front is marching toward the state today as one low pressure passes us by to the north. Another low pops along the cold front and scoots through here tonight into early Thursday. This means a healthy slug of moisture will roll across the region with widespread rainfall. Some of the rains should be heavy at times.
MUCH colder air will move in quickly behind the departing low. Readings will crash into the 40s on Thursday as winds gust up. This is the point of the change that the models have been disagreeing about. The European Model has been rock steady in developing another low across the south and turning it up the east coast late Friday and Saturday. It has had some occasional friends along the way. The JMA has taken on the role of BFF…
SATURDAY MORNING
A track like that would throw some very cold showers in here on Friday with that carrying over into Saturday for some. That track could also bring the precipitation type into question as cold air would be in place.
The GFS has been saying “no way” to this second storm idea, keeping it well out in the Atlantic Ocean. It is warming up to the idea…
The GFS is notorious for being way to far east with lows along the coast. Let’s see how much more of a correction west we get from it.
I mentioned the pattern being an extreme one. Just a few days ago, cities across Colorado were setting record highs. Today, many of those same cities are getting blasted by a snowstorm. Several western states are seeing similar conditions. Much of the northeastern part of the country will get hammered by snows over the next few days with another big snowfall possible this weekend. Yes… it is still October.
Add Hurricane Rina to the mix…![[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1811W5_NL_sm2+gif/235206W5_NL_sm.gif)
and you really do get an extreme looking weather map. That storm is likely to impact Florida before all is said and done.
We have our own weather to worry about and I have you all set to track today’s action…
I will have updates as needed. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
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I sure hope the Euro is correct on this. I’m getting antsy for even just a chance of snow showing up on the forecasts. The next 24 hours should start to reveal some clues…
Rain coming down HARD here at the office in Nicholasville.
“The ECMWF is alone in amplifying an upper level trough….” Par for the course, I’d say. ECMWF is always alone. They should shut it off and save the electricity.
BTW… am I the only one who strongly dislikes the new AFD product format coming from NWS LMK?
Temperature hit 70 again today at CVG. A very welcome surprise before the rains come in that will put us over the record for the most rainfall in a single year.
The European Model is NOT alone and the other models are now trending toward toward a more amplified solution.
BTW… the Euro OWNS the GFS in skill scores. Both models have biases… the GFS is ALWAYS too far east with storms across the eastern US. The Euro has issues with energy in the southwest. Knowing the biases and correcting them is a plus to any forecaster.
All I know is that in day to day use, the GFS OWNS the Euro lately. In fact, just using GFS alone has produced perfect 7-10 day forecasts for the past several weeks. It’s almost always spot-on. I wish I had a $5 bill for everytiime I’ve read “The Euro is finally coming around to the GFS solution…” in the AFDs this Fall.