Good Thursday, everyone. Another heavy rain event is pushing across the region early today with lingering showers hanging on into Friday. This very active setup is just ahead of a major pattern change that will usher in the threat for winter weather later next week.
Many areas have picked up 1″-3″ of rain since Wednesday with a little more to go out there today and Friday. The widespread stuff of early this morning becomes more showery in nature through the day as winds gust up behind a departing low.
This northwest flow will keep lots of clouds going into Friday as low-level moisture hangs touch. Scattered light showers and areas of mist and drizzle will be noted, especially across central and eastern Kentucky.
Here are your Thursday rain tracking tools…
Temps today and Friday are mainly in the low to middle 50s.
Clouds will slowly break on Saturday with temps reaching the mid and upper 50s for many. This dry weather carries us into Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds and temps reaching the lower 60s.
Before we get to the winter look for next week, let’s check in on the tropical system developing in the Caribbean. Sara should be named soon as it glances Honduras and heads toward the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…
The interaction with land means this will be a weakened system by the time it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. The latest spaghetti plots from the GFS Ensembles and the Hurricane Models show this system tracking toward Florida…
GFS ENSEMBLES
HURRICANE MODELS
That system gets pushed east as a massive upper level system moves into the eastern half of the country around the middle of next week. This system is a result of one heck of a block going up from Greenland across Canada to Alaska.
This keeps several bowling ball systems spinning into our region and those have a lot of cold air to work with, even into Thanksgiving week. The exact timing and details are a work in progress and will continue to be for several more days as the models slowly come together.
The model differences show up from run to run and model to model, but the overall theme is still the same…
GFS
EURO
The AI version of the EURO doesn’t show precipitation type but it gives us a good idea based on the temperature profile…
The EURO Weeklies have done a really good job with the recent pattern. From forecasting the very dry October to the mild start to November, the EURO Weeklies are on their A game right now. So, it’s interesting to watch the EURO Weeklies trend colder with each run for late this month into December.
A few days ago, the weeklies were showing normal temps over a month long stretch. They are now showing below normal temps…
With a colder pattern, the better the chance for some snows during the holiday season…
I’ll see you back here for another update later today.
Have a great Thursday and take care.
Not buying the snow potential.
Thanks Chris. I’ve seen Snows in La Nina years, but the PDO during those events was a very low negative to almost positive. Hopefully, the PDO will be more towards the positive to keep the NAO and AO in the negative. We shall see.
Have a Great Day Everyone !
I might add, that the potential for Ice Storms increases in La Nina years, but it takes a very Cold, dry and frigid Arctic air with the return flow from the Gulf. Just hope it warms above freezing at the surface before precipitation begins to fall.
According to the Kentucky Mesonet, here in Taylor county we received 1.30 inches of Rain in the last 48 hours. I will have to check my Rain guage to see if I received the same.
1.69” between last evening and this morning. The bulk of the rain seems be streaming just to our east now, replaced by mist and drizzle.