Good evening, folks. As better weather blows in for Sunday, the focus is on a winter looking setup for the week ahead. This is a setup that brings rain, wind and the increasing chance for the first flakes of the season to most of our region.
In the overall scheme of things, I have no substantial changes to my thoughts from previous updates as the nothing has changed with the trend.
A quick recap:
- Showers and some storms arrive Monday night and Tuesday as a cold front moves in.
- As the huge upper low sweeps in from the west on Wednesday, a surface low develops and brings high winds and rain.
- This low lifts to the north and northeast Wednesday night and Thursday, allowing much colder air to sweep in.
- This cold air means we watch for rain and snow to sweep in from the north and northwest during this time.
- Depending on the exact evolution of this setup, some sticking snow can’t be ruled out for parts of Kentucky and surrounding areas.
- The chance for sticking snow will be the greatest along and behind the track of the upper low and surface low.
- I cannot tell you with any certainty where those will track just yet.
The Canadian Model continues to be the snowiest and most consistent model as it also bring another flake maker in from the northwest next weekend…
We are in the time frame to where the GFS bias of being too progressive is showing up. Still, the model brings a decent period of snow in here Thursday into Friday…
The EURO has a stronger storm system that’s slower to move away and also brings a nice period of snow in here…
The outlook for Thanksgiving week and weekend still looks active with additional big dips in the jet stream, potentially leading to additional chance for some winter weather. The GFS Ensembles keep showing that deep trough sweeping back into the east…
The operational run of the GFS is seeing this same setup and providing some long-range winter chances…
Enjoy the rest of your Saturday and take care.
