Good Sunday, everyone. We have a really nice day taking shape across the Commonwealth and we can consider this a small break in the active pattern we’ve been in this November. The week ahead sees that active pattern continue with the chance for some winter weather to join in on the fun.
Temps today hit the low to middle 60s with a mix of sun and clouds.
The pleasant temps take us into Monday as clouds thicken ahead of our big weather maker that begins to impact our region Monday night and Tuesday. That’s when a cold front sweeps eastward into the region and slows down.
A huge upper low then swings into the region Wednesday, spawning a surface low just ahead of it. That should result in high winds and showers developing. This low then deepens to our north and northeast and may pinwheel back at us Thursday into Friday. That’s when rain and snow will be possible across our region. Is this just the chance for a few flakes or can we get some early season slushy accumulations? It’s still too soon to tell as we have to figure out the exact evolution of this whole scenario.
The Canadian continues to be the most consistent with the upcoming storm system and brings the best chance for some accumulations into our region Thursday into Friday. It also has another system dropping in with the chance for some flakes behind that next weekend…
As I explained in my last update, we are to the point where the GFS bias of being too far east and too progressive with everything is coming into play. That’s very evident in the latest run of the model…
If you recall, the GFS nearly lost the recent heavy rainfall we just had and only brought it back a few days before. All because of the progressive nature of the model from a certain time period away from storm systems.
The EURO is more like the Canadian but much more on the lighter side with the snow potential…
Thanksgiving week starts out with pleasant temps, but the pattern looks to turn very active once again with the threat for a few big systems sweeping across the country over the long holiday weekend.
The ensembles continue to show a trough returning to the east during Thanksgiving weekend into the first few days of December…
GFS ENSEMBLES
EURO ENSEMBLES
The EURO WEEKLIES now go all the way out to the final day of 2024 and it’s showing the potential for a colder than normal holiday period. Check out the 7 day temp departures from normal from Christmas Even through New Year’s Eve…
I’ll have another update later today. Have a great Sunday and take care.
Thanks Chris. Hoping that the 540 line moves way south of Kentucky keeping the Wintertime precipitation all Snow, but with La Nina that may not happen. It didn’t happen in January 2009, but it did happen in the La Nina Winter 1917 – 18.
Have a Peaceful Sunday Everyone
I’m on board with the arrival of colder air late Wednesday into Thursday, but I believe that the chances for actually seeing Winter weather during the period in South-Central Kentucky, are slim and none. That action will stay to the east and north of Warren County. There is a lot of cold air locked up in northern Canada, but it would take a significant dip in the polar jet stream to bring some of that air into KY. It’s looking more and more to me like we will be facing a back-loaded Winter.
Our weather here in south central Kentucky resembles what our neighbors have to our south and southwest, especially in La Nina years. One of these years we will have El Nino back, but it can’t be like the last one, that formed in a negative PDO. The ENSO phase didn’t react with the atmosphere, so it was pretty much a ENSO / neutral rather than El Nino. I expect Arctic air will invade sometime this Winter, but it will not combind with a low pressure to our southwest to make a major Snowstorm for Kentucky. That only happens in weak El Nino Winters. With La Nina we have dry frigid Arctic air, and when the warm air from the Gulf overides the Arctic air a Ice storm may result if it doesn’t warm above freezing at the surface. I’m hoping that the Polar Low or Polar Vortex stays very strong and Keeps the Arctic air in Canada or Siberia. I don’t want to experience another Ice storm anymore, but the potential is there this coming Winter.