Good Monday to one and all. It’s another mild and windy day out there as we get ready for a big time cold front to blow across the region. This unleashes a much colder pattern with potent storm system in the eastern US that may bring some snowflakes to parts of Kentucky.

Temps are back on the mild side again today as clouds thicken and winds gust ahead of the aforementioned cold front. This boundary will fire up some showers and storms well to our west today with a few of those working into western Kentucky during the evening.

Here are your radars to follow along with the stuff moving into the west…

Winds are really gusty as this front crosses the region on Tuesday and those winds may reach 40mph at times. Showers and thunderstorms will also spread eastward across Kentucky along and ahead of this front. It looks like the greatest concentration may fire up across the eastern half of the state on Tuesday. You can see that reflected in the rainfall forecasts from some of the models…

A strong upper level system rolls into the Ohio Valley Wednesday and spawns a surface low to our east and northeast. This system brings a lot of gusty winds as temps drop quickly through the day. Gusty showers will be noted as the surface low spins to our north. That low then drops back to the south and brings more showers and the chance for snowflakes across parts of the state Thursday and Friday.

As of now, the best chance is across central and eastern Kentucky. Here’s a preliminary look at the areas with the best chance of seeing, at least, some flakes flying…

Now, can we get in on a scenario where we get something to stick? Yes. Will we? That’s a question for future model runs with how they handle this rather complex setup.

The GFS continues to be the most progressive but has slowed things down just a bit from prior runs…

The Canadian continues to give us the best chance for some light snows…

The EURO also brings some light snow into the area late Thursday into early Friday as that storm cranks to our northeast…

Cold temps and gusty winds will combine to make it feel the part of mid-December from late Wednesday into the weekend. Check out the wind chills from the GFS from 7pm Wednesday through 7am Saturday…

And the Canadian Model wind chill forecast for the same time period…

Moral of the story… It’s time to find the winter coats.

The stage is set for a very active Thanksgiving week with several systems crossing the country. The first looks to arrive by Monday with another shot of cold and maybe some flakes behind it. That may be followed up by another system right around Thanksgiving Day.

Here’s the GFS showing those two systems…

And the Canadian Model for the same timeframe…

The pattern over the next few weeks is one that may go to the extremes across the country. Arctic air is likely to dive into the country as we end November and Start December. At the same time, we may have a very active southern storm track feeding on warmer than normal temps across the southeast before the cold air wins the battle.

I’ll see you guys back here for another update later today and I’ll have the latest on the flake chances on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm today.

Have a merry Monday and take care.