Good evening, everyone. We continue to track a very active pattern for Thanksgiving week as we get set to make a swift transition into winter. This is a very cold and wintry look as we close November and head into December.

A cold front moves in here with gusty showers late Monday into Monday night. Milder winds blowing in front of this will be replaced by a much colder wind blowing for Tuesday as highs drop back into the 40s.

The stage continues to be set for a big storm system to impact our weather from Wednesday through Black Friday. The track and strength of this low is still up for debate, but I think the low spins from west Tennessee to West Virginia. This brings rain across our region late Wednesday into Thanksgiving with the chance for some snow showers and flurries behind it Thanksgiving night into Black Friday.

This will be followed up by a clipper looking system late Saturday or Sunday that should be able to produce a period of light snow.

I like what the EURO is doing with these two systems…

The temperatures go well below normal with these systems…

Single digit wind chills may show up as early as next Sunday morning.

The EURO continues with the onslaught of arctic air diving into our region and across the eastern half of the state. This setup features a few clippers that may try to deepen a little more than shown on the model. This animation goes from December 2nd through December 9…

Watch how the extreme cold relaxes for about a day or so before it cranks even more than before on this animation that goes through the same time period…

That Canadian Model doesn’t go out in time as far as the EURO, but it has a similar look through December 4th…

And the temp anomalies for the same time period…

This is an extremely cold pattern into the first week of December. It’s one that can take wind chills below zero and potentially take lows toward record levels.

You will notice I’m not showing the GFS and it’s because the model just cannot get rid of the overall progressive bias it has. I’m not even talking about one particular system; I’m talking about the entire model run not being able to place the trough in the right area. If it can’t even get the trough placement or magnitude correct, there’s zero chance it gets the lower levels right. Hopefully it sheds that bias soon.

I’ll see you crazy kids back here for another update later tonight. Enjoy the rest of your Sunday and take care.